Thursday, April 29, 2004

Thursday Close

S&P 500 1,113.89 -.76%
NASDAQ 1,958.78 -1.55%


Leading Sectors
Telecom +.14%
Foods +.13%
Insurance +.03%

Lagging Sectors
Disk Drives -2.89%
Oil Service -3.35%
Networking -3.51%

Other
Crude Oil 37.53 +.56%
Natural Gas 5.94 +.27%
Gold 388.80 +.44%
Base Metals 103.45 +.57%
U.S. Dollar 90.44 -.80%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.54% +.86%
VIX 16.60 +1.90%
Put/Call .95 +9.20%
NYSE Arms 1.32 -30.53%

After-hours Movers
CALM +17.45% after withdrawing proposed 5M share secondary.
FLML +6.43% after meeting 1Q estimates.
VTIV +5.41% after substantially beating 1Q estimates.
FDRY -26.86% after missing 1Q estimates and lowering 2Q forecast.
APCC -10.26% after missing 1Q estimates.
BOBJ -10.78% after missing 1Q estimate and lowering 2Q guidance.
GNSS -14.92% after meeting 4Q estimate and lowering 1Q forecast.
ITMN -16.71% after making negative comments on future drug prospects.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Underperform on UAL, BVF, AKS and MGM. GS reiterated Outperform on DOW, CMX, DNA and AET.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished lower Thursday on a below-expectations GDP report, rising interest rates and concerns over the Chinese economy. After the close, Bloomberg reported that automakers boosted the fuel economy of 2004 model-year vehicles for the second year in a row. Electronic Arts, the largest U.S. video game maker, said fourth-quarter profit surged as sales climbed 29%. Sequoia and Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers paid about $25 million combined in 1999 for a stake in Google. The 2 firms now stand to make a return of at least 150-fold from the investment, or about $4 billion, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio rose slightly today as my shorts fell more than my longs. I did not make any afternoon changes and the Portfolio is still 25% net short. One of the new short positions I initiated today is William Lyon Homes(WLS), a small-cap homebuilder. I am keeping a 90.5 stop-loss on this position. I think rising interest rates will continue to pressure this group short/intermediate-term. The tone of the market is still very poor. With my short-term trading indicators still giving sell signals and investor complacency still relatively high, I tend to think we have more to go on the downside before an oversold bounce.

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