Monday, April 19, 2004

Mid-day Update

S&P 500 1,131.96 -.23%
NASDAQ 2,004.69 +.45%


Leading Sectors
Wireless +1.24%
Biotech +1.15%
Gaming +.98%

Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders -1.16%
I-Banks -1.24%
Airlines -1.73%

Other
Crude Oil 37.75 +.03%
Natural Gas 5.59 -.36%
Gold 401.80 +.05%
Base Metals 115.07 +1.89%
U.S. Dollar 89.79 -.17%
10-Yr. Long-Bond Yield 4.35% +.23%
VIX 15.68 +4.95%
Put/Call .67 -12.99%
NYSE Arms 1.23 -15.28%

Market Movers
DRIV +23.2% after announcing it will buy Element 5 AG for $120M and raising earnings forecasts for the 2nd quarter and year.
IMCL +12.3% after saying federal regulators had agreed to review a license for a new facility to make Erbitux and Bank of America Buy rating.
ASKJ +8.9% on multiple upgrades.
CNJ +13.9% after receiving an unsolicited buyout offer of $451M in cash from Moulin Intl., topping Luxottica Group's $401M bid the day before shareholders were to vote on it.
MOSY -41.6% after SNPS terminated its merger agreement with the company.
SWIR -11.3% after meeting 1Q estimates, but lowering 2Q guidance.

Economic Data
Leading Indicators for March +.3% versus +.3% estimate and 0.0% in February.

Recommendations
VLO raised to Overweight at JP Morgan. ORCL added to JP Morgan Focus List. JP Morgan rated PCO Buy. AMD raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank. ASKJ raised to Outperform at Thomas Weisel. NOK cut to Underweight at Prudential. QCOM rated Outperform at CSFB. IMCL rated Buy at Bank of America, target $91. UAG rated Buy at Merrill, target $33. Goldman Sachs reiterated Underperform on GAS, RKY, QLGC, DPH and RSH. GS reiterated Outperform on CMA, SYMC, PH, DTV, KMT, CAH, MCK, N, MDT, COH, CCE, NAV, PH, KMT, AG, NSIT, ZION and USB. GS thinks GLW is very attractive under $11 ahead of earnings. Citi Smith Barney's March CIO Macro Trends Survey shows continued optimism and an acceleration in spending by U.S. companies. 52% of all U.S. respondents expect spending to accelerate over the next 12 months. Citi says this should benefit DELL, MSFT, HPQ, SAP, SEBL, ADSK, ADBE, COGN, BOBJ, SAGE, INFA and RSAS the most. Citi rated APCS Buy ahead of earnings, $10 target. Citi reiterated Buy on PTV, FITB and SEE. Citi reiterated Sell on WWCA, TPC and USM. Citi reiterated Buy on SPLS, $31 target.

Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are mixed mid-day as the NASDAQ finds support at the 1990-2000 level and is bouncing. Hawaii will team with five other U.S. states in the first-ever Medicaid multi-state pooling initiative to cut drug prices, the AP said. MetroFi Inc. plans to install wireless-networking gear that will allow anyone within the city limits of Santa Clara, California to access the Internet for 20-30$/month, the San Francisco Chronicle reported. Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said that Italy is the U.S.'s closest ally after the U.K., Bloomberg reported. McDonald's CEO James Cantalupo died of an apparent heart attack in Orlando, Florida, Bloomberg reported. The U.S.-led coalition said it won an agreement to help end tensions in the Iraqi town of Fallujah, Bloomberg reported. The index of leading U.S. economic indicators rose .3% in March as tax refunds put more money in the hands of consumers, jobless claims fell and companies took longer to fill orders, Bloomberg reported. Computer Associates fired nine employees in its legal and finance departments after three executives pleaded guilty to securities fraud last week.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is down slightly today as my shorts are up a little more than my longs. A few of my tech and biotech shorts hit stop losses, thus I exited those positions, raising the Portfolio's market exposure to 25% net long. U.S. stocks appear as though they will head lower in the short-run and I will look for additional shorts this afternoon.

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