Monday, April 26, 2004

Monday Watch

Earnings Announcements
Company/Estimate
ABC/1.20
CNXT/.03
EDS/.01
FWHT/.13
HUM/.41
PBI/.56
VECO/.08
ZMH/.51

Splits
CALM 2-for-1

Economic Data
New Home Sales for March estimated at 1173K versus 1163K in April.

Weekend Recommendations
Forbes on Fox had guests that were positive on PD, FCX, MOT, ZBRA, CVC, COX, CMCSA, VZ, FON, WM and mixed on PTV, MRK and UNH. Bulls and Bears had guests that were positive on PVX, KKD, GM, THC, LUV, MDT, mixed on HPQ, MSFT, CC, XRX, GS and negative on TASR. Cashin' In had guests that were positive on TRB, VIA/B, VIP, MBT and mixed on LEND and GENZ. Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street had guests that were positive on MMC, RD, UNP, COH, BR, PGR, CFC, COF, CAT, CNX, BTU, MEE, ACI, NFX and negative on financials, homebuilders and metals. Wall St. Week w/Fortune had guests that were positive on AMR, ALK, UTX, GR, HON, ABXA, BA, RHAT, MWAY, SII, HL, IWM, GE, AIG, PEP, MSFT, PFE and negative on JBLU. Barron's had positive columns on HAL, LGF and negative columns on the Nikkei and China.

Weekend News
Interest rates are creating a wall of worry for the markets, Bloomberg reported. Analysts' expectations for semiconductor industry growth this year continue to edge upward, with In-Stat/MDR predicting a 29 percent rise this year. Last month the Semiconductor Industry Association forecast a 19.4 percent growth year for the industry. California, Arizona, Montana and other Western U.S. states are at above-average risk for wildfires in 04, the Washington Post reported. 71% of Chinese workers earn between $96-$300/month, Xinhua News Agency reported. Cingular and other U.S. mobile-phone operators are increasingly marketing handsets and services to teens, who are more likely than adults to use features that cost extra such as text messages, cameras and games, the Washington Post reported. GM's sales to China rose 70% in the first quarter, Xinhua News reported. Google may have a market value of as much as $25 billion by the end of its first day of trading, the New York Times said. Google has picked CSFB and Morgan Stanley to lead the IPO, the Wall Street Journal reported. Apple Computer may be developing a line of digital mobile phones that use the Internet for transmitting calls, the New York Times said. Caterpillar workers represented by the UAW rejected the company's contract proposal, Reuters reported. Libya, a day after the U.S. lifted sanctions, said it brokered its first sale to an American oil company since 1986 -- a shipment of 2 million barrels of oil worth about $73 million, Bloomberg reported. Samsung raised its forecast for 04 industry wide handset sales for the second time this month, citing rising consumer demand for new models, Bloomberg reported. Crude oil futures rose in NY and London after attacks on Iraq's offshore oil export terminals over the weekend heightened concern about possible disruptions to supplies from the Middle East's third-largest crude producer, Bloomberg reported. Shares of Asian airlines are falling after China reported 4 new suspected SARS cases in Beijing, renewing concerns the disease may crimp leisure and business travel, Bloomberg said.

Late-Night Trading
Asian indices are mostly lower, -1.75% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.10%.
NASDAQ indicated -.17%.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is 125% net long heading into the week. U.S. stocks may open lower Monday morning on weakness in Asia from rising oil prices, SARS concerns and U.S. interest rate worries. I expect shares to rally later in the day on strong fundamentals and improving technicals.

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