Monday, April 19, 2004

Monday Watch

Earnings Announcements
Company/Estimate
MMM/.87
CD/.41
CF/.69
CNF/.36
LLY/.66
FNM/1.91
JCOM/.23
LXK/.72
LNCR/.56
MVK/.46
MSPD/-.11
SSNC/.17
WM/1.04

Splits
HIBB 3-for-2
SHFL 3-for-2

Economic Data
Leading Indicators for March estimated +.3% versus unchanged in February.

Weekend Recommendations
Forbes on Fox had guests that were positive on VLO and mixed on RGS, IGT, CMX, NXTL and PHM. Bulls and Bears had guests that were positive on SBUX, MCD, KROL, CCU, SIRI, FBR and FNF. Cashin' In had guests that were positive on CME, IPG, PPR, NT, LU and mixed on COH and HD. Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street had guests that were positive on EXBD, TRB, DELL, JNJ, LLY, TXU, APCC, ALL, CNX and negative on IR. Wall St. Week w/Fortune had guests that were positive on AH, FLIR, DHB, CRDN, ANT, ACE, AEP, S, JPM, GM, HIG and PHS. Barron's had positive columns on CL, RESP, RMD, AGIX and KRYX. Ned Davis, of Ned Davis Research, told Barron's he expects the S&P 500 to rise above 1,200 this year.

Weekend News
Cingular Wireless may reduce cell-phone suppliers to 4 from 6 next year to reduce costs, the Chicago Tribune reported. A BJ's Wholesale Club store in Natick, Mass. had a credit-card security breach that may result in millions of dollars being swiped by Russian and Asian thieves, the Boston Herald reported. Wireless computer networks often lack security measures needed to keep hackers out, which suggests there may be a U.S. boom in identity theft, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported. Barry Diller, chairman of InterActiveCorp, is trying to increase its share of the residential real estate market by taking aim at Henry Silverman's Cendant Corp., the NY Times reported. 2 out of 5 Internet users in the U.S. have high-speed access at home, the AP said. The IMF will ask the U.S. Federal Reserve to prepare the world economy for a rise in interest rates, the Financial Times said. Nokia won a contract to build a 3G mobile phone network for Vodafone in New Zealand, the New Zealand Herald reported. Abdel Aziz Rantisi, the new leader of Hamas, was killed in an Israeli missile strike, CNN reported. The U.S. military is leaning toward ending the standoff with insurgents in Fallujah by force as negotiations yield no results, the NY Times reported.

Late-Night Trading
Asian indices are mostly lower, -1.0% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.25%.
NASDAQ indicated -.24%.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is market neutral(longs-shorts=0) heading into the week. The mainstream press reached new all-time highs in negative reporting this weekend as 9 out of 10 articles I read, across a wide array of publications, had a negative spin. I believe that the vast majority of Americans do not enjoy this type of destructive reporting and would really appreciate a good mix of positive and negative stories. Negative headlines over the weekend, weakness in Asia and inflation concerns will likely lead to a weaker open for U.S. stocks in the morning.

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