Tuesday, April 13, 2004

Tuesday Watch

Earnings Announcements
Company/Estimate
ASO/.45
DJ/.20
INTC/.27
JNJ/.80
LLTC/.25
MER/1.07

Splits
CFC 3-for-2

Economic Data
Advance Retail Sales for March estimated +.7% vs. +.7% in February.
Retail Sales Less Autos for March estimated +.6% vs. +.1% in February.
Business Inventories in February estimated +.5% vs. +.1% prior month.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs says they expect upside earnings surprises to dominate the March earnings season in the gaming sector. GS says demand in Las Vegas appears to be white hot, benefiting MBG and MGG. GS says radio stocks could rally 15% as March "entered like a lamb and exited like a lion."

Late-Night News
Asian stocks are mostly higher on a Nihon Keizai Shimbun survey in Japan showed retail and service companies were optimistic about consumer spending for the first time in eight years. Japanese domestic demand for ordinary steel will rise in the fiscal year started April 1, for the first time in four years, the Japan Metal Daily reported. China is poised to join the multilateral group controlling the export of nuclear materials and technology, the Financial Times reported. MGM Mirage's second-quarter profit may be reduced by 2 cents to 3 cents a share because of a power outage at its Bellagio hotel and casino, Dow Jones reported. The sons of Iraq's Shiite Muslim leader Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani are meeting with al-Sadr after Sistani called for calm and the restoration of law and order in the country, the AP reported. After talks yesterday, al-Sadr's supporters withdrew from police posts in Najaf, Kufa and Karbala. China's economy will grow 9.75% in the first half of the year, above the 7% government target, Xinhua news agency reported.

Late-Night Trading
Asian Indices -.25% to +1.25%.
S&P 500 indicated +.02%.
NASDAQ indicated -.07%.

BOTTOM LINE: U.S. stocks should open higher in the morning as positive earnings reports continue to outweigh violence in Iraq. The Portfolio is 75% net long and I will look to add market exposure on any unexpected morning weakness.

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