Sunday, November 20, 2005

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- China’s economy will probably slip back into deflation by the end of this year or early 2006, ending more than 12 months of inflation that climbed as high as 2.3% in the first six months of 2005.
- The US House, casting a largely symbolic vote, overwhelmingly rejected by a vote of 403-3 a proposed resolution by Democrats calling for an immediate withdrawal of US troops from Iraq.
- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar, three nations that together pump more than 40% of OPEC’s oil, welcomed a three month slide in crude oil prices and said they have no plans to reduce supplies.
- US 10-year Treasury notes rose for a second straight week, the first back-to-back gain in more than two months, after government reports suggested inflation is contained and the housing market may be cooling.
- Wal-Mart said November sales at its US stores are rising within its forecast.
- Saudi Basic Industries, the world’s largest chemical maker by market value, expects prices and profits to decline next year because of an excess of supply, the company’s CEO said.
- Mentor Corp., a maker of plastic surgery products, made a $2.2 billion hostile bid in stock for Medicis Pharmaceutical, the latest offer in an industry where acquisitions have risen 15% from a year earlier.
- UK house prices gained for a second month in November, reinforcing signs of a pickup in Britain’s $6 trillion property market after a yearlong slowdown, property Web site Rightmove said.
- Senator Joseph Biden said he and fellow Democrats are more likely to block the Supreme Court nomination of Samuel Alito Jr. by using a filibuster after seeing statements he made in a 1985 Reagan administration job application.
- Boeing won orders today worth a total of $13.7 billion for 112 aircraft from Emirates and China, extending gains in new business this year over Airbus SAS.

Wall Street Journal:
- Toyota Motor may set a goal next month of producing as many as 9.2 million cars in 2006, which could make it the first company in 70 years to produce more cars than GM.

NY Times:
- About 40% of New Orleans is still without power, and the city’s main utility, Entergy Corp., says some areas of the city are too devastated to predict when electricity will come back on.
- Wal-Mart Stores’ Sam’s Club warehouse stores and J. Crew Group are reaching out to higher-income shoppers this holiday season with luxury goods ranging from Italian cashmere to diamond wreath necklaces.
- Support is increasing for a nationwide telephone service that would connect callers to social services and ways to volunteer in their communities.
- Iran’s Parliament voted today to approve the outline of a bill that would prevent the United Nations from inspecting its nuclear sites should Iran’s case be referred to the UN Security Council for possible sanctions.

Washington Post:
- Lockheed Martin and three private-equity firms ended talks with Computer Sciences about a buyout of the No. 5 US computer-sciences company.

The Chronicle of Philanthropy:
- Donations to US hurricane relief efforts have surpassed the amount raised for victims and their families after the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001.

AP:
- Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of Iraq’s al-Qaeda cell, may be among those who died in a gunfight in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul and “there are efforts under way to determine if he was killed.”

Financial Times:
- Chinese copper trader Liu Qibing is being made a “scapegoat” for losses at a government agency and worked with proper approvals, citing an unidentified trader in Shanghai who knows Liu.

London-based Times:
- US companies are having their longest streak of double-digit quarterly profit rises since 1936, citing research by Merrill Lynch.

The Business:
- Microsoft, Reuters Group and Time Warner’s AOL unit will announce an Internet messaging service, overcoming restrictions that had prevented the technology from being used by financial institutions.
- Buyout firm Blackstone Group is examining a possible purchase of Knight Ridder, publisher of the Philadelphia Inquirer and Miami Herald.

Focus Magazine:
- Germany’s Federal Labor Agency expects the number of jobless people to rise next year, undercutting the estimated level of social insurance contributions by $4.4 billion, citing an internal labor office forecast.
- Plans by the incoming German government to increase taxes will cost citizens an additional $21.7 billion in 2007, citing internal finance ministry estimates.

China Daily:
- China will import less oil and oil products in 2006 than previous years, an official with the Ministry of Commerce said recently.

al-Hayat:
- Egypt discovered a new oil well south of the Sinai desert that contains 20 million barrels of oil reserves.

Le Journal du Dimanche:
- French President Jacques Chirac’s approval rating dropped another 3 percentage points in November to 35%.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on EK, WY, BOW and SSCC.
- Had negative comments on AMED and GOOG.

Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on CSCO and GE.

Night Trading
Asian indices are unch. to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.06%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
CPB/.56
CBRL/.53
DY/.19
PVH/.70

Upcoming Splits
NIHD 2-for-1

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Leading Indicators for October are estimated to rise .8% versus a .7% decline in September.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mixed as higher energy prices are offsetting more optimism for exporters in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rise modestly later in the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

There are a few important economic reports and significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. - Leading Indicators
Tues. - Richmond Fed Index, Minutes of Nov.1 FOMC Meeting
Wed. - Initial Jobless Claims, Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence
Thur. - US markets closed for Thanksgiving
Fri. - None of note/US markets close at 1 pm EST

A few of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. - Campbell Soup(CPB), CBRL Group(CBRL), Philips-Van Heusen(PVH)
Tues. - AES Corp.(AES), Albertson’s(ABS), BISYS Group(BSG), Coldwater Creek(CWTR), Deere & Co.(DE), Dollar General(DG), Dollar Tree(DLTR), Eaton Vance(EV), HJ Heinz(HNZ), Michaels Stores(MIK), PETCO Animal Supplies(PETC), Tech Data(TECD)
Wed. - Dana Corp.(DCN), Patterson Companies(PDCO)
Thur. - US markets closed for Thanksgiving
Fri. - None of note/US markets close at 1 pm EST

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. - None of note
Tue. - None of note
Wed. - None of note
Thur. - US markets closed for Thanksgiving
Fri. - None of note/US markets close at 1 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on more optimism, lower energy prices and short-covering. My trading indicators are still giving bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, November 19, 2005

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,248.27 +1.10%*

Image hosted by Photobucket.com

Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: Overall, last week's market performance was positive considering recent gains, worries over GM and weaker data from the housing sector. The advance/decline line rose, most sectors gained and volume was about average on the week. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower. The AAII % Bulls fell for the week, which is a positive, but is still at above average levels. I would only become worried over this gauge on sustained readings above 60. The average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.37% which is 116 basis points above all-time lows set in June 2003 and the highest since June of last year. Mortgage rates will likely head lower over the intermediate-term. The benchmark 10-year T-note yield fell 7 basis points on the week as multiple inflation readings decelerated and a report showed international demand for US assets increased to record levels. Tech and cyclicals outperformed on increased optimism over US economic growth and accelerated corporate spending. The US dollar rose slightly on the week as optimism over US economic growth relative to that of other developed nations and increasing demand for US assets more than offset expectations of a European Central Bank rate hike. Gold jumped, notwithstanding the decelerating inflation data, on Middle Eastern diversification out of oil and the euro and into the precious metal. Unleaded Gas futures continued their recent collapse, now falling 50% since September highs even as refinery utilization still remains below normal as a result of the hurricanes. Moreover, natural gas supplies increased again this week even as 36% of daily Gulf of Mexico production remains shut-in. Natural Gas has now dropped 22.6% from recent highs. I continue to believe global energy demand destruction and a substantial increase in supplies into 2006 will continue pushing energy prices substantially lower over the intermediate-term. I also still expect the S&P 500 to end the year strongly, finishing with around a 10% gain. The index is currently up 4.7% for the year.

*5-day % Change

Friday, November 18, 2005

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,248.27 +1.10%
DJIA 10,766.33 +.75%
NASDAQ 2,227.07 +1.12%
Russell 2000 672.22 +.83%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,468.99 +1.09%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,066.99 -.17%
S&P Barra Growth 598.17 +1.26%
S&P Barra Value 645.75 +.95%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 593.39 -.25%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 764.64 +2.72%
Morgan Stanley Technology 526.33 +2.07%
Transports 4,140.69 +1.66%
Utilities 396.46 +2.17%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 7,794.00 +2.82%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 45.0 +161.6%
Put/Call .62 -7.46%
NYSE Arms .73 -8.75%
Volatility(VIX) 11.12 -6.55%
ISE Sentiment 181.0 +7.74%
AAII % Bulls 53.63 -8.51%
US Dollar 91.93 +.10%
CRB 312.74 -.90%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 57.21 -2.12%
Unleaded Gasoline 146.20 -1.75%
Natural Gas 11.41 -2.77%
Heating Oil 169.62 -1.95%
Gold 486.70 +3.71%
Base Metals 141.21 +1.01%
Copper 191.70 +3.34%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.49% -1.75%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.37% +.16%

Leading Sectors
Papers +8.36%
Oil Service +4.98%
Homebuilders +3.85%

Lagging Sectors
Disk Drives -1.09%
Drugs -1.15%
Software -1.30%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers
One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day % Change

Stocks Slightly Higher Mid-day on Merger Activity and another Decline in Energy Prices

S&P 500 1,244.52 +.14%
DJIA 10,724.63 +.04%
NASDAQ 2,225.58 +.23%
Russell 2000 671.21 +.61%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,434.39 +.15%
S&P Barra Growth 596.63 +.19%
S&P Barra Value 643.37 +.05%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 592.28 -.11%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 761.60 +.50%
Morgan Stanley Technology 526.22 +.18%
Transports 4,133.85 +1.26%
Utilities 395.32 -.56%
Put/Call .62 -12.68%
NYSE Arms .84 +25.04%
Volatility(VIX) 11.48 +2.04%
ISE Sentiment 173.00 -4.95%
US Dollar 91.93 +.08%
CRB 311.96 -.38%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 55.50 -1.49%
Unleaded Gasoline 145.20 -.51%
Natural Gas 11.43 -4.29%
Heating Oil 169.00 -.14%
Gold 486.00 -.18%
Base Metals 141.21 +1.58%
Copper 191.30 +1.81%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.47% +.52%

Leading Sectors
Semis +2.19%
Broadcasting +1.18%
Telecom +.89%

Lagging Sectors
Coal -.87%
Gold & Silver -1.13%
Airlines -1.60%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day on gains in my Semi longs, Computer longs, Steel shorts and Energy-related shorts. I have not traded this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are rising and volume is heavy. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Overall, today’s market action is neutral considering the fall in energy prices and merger activity. Beazer Homes (BZH) is making an all-time high today. This is significant. Beazer has more ARMs exposure than any other major homebuilder, as well as significant exposure to many of the perceived "overheated" markets. This stock has been targeted by the shorts as the most exposed to the coming housing collapse they have been forecasting for a several years. 27.3% of the float is short. I continue to believe housing is slowing to more sustainable healthy levels, not collapsing. A slowing housing market is a big positive for U.S. stocks, in my opinion. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher from current levels into the close on short-covering and falling energy prices.