Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Falling Long-Term Rates, Rising Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Technical Buying, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.7 -5.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .60 +43.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 63.3 -3.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 184.0 -.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.9 +.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.4 -9.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 162.0 +31.0
  

• Total Put/Call .87 -2.3%

• NYSE Arms 2.50 +236.4%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$124.2M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.3 -2.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 261.7 -.6%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 287 -4
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.2 -2.9%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 171.1 -4.0%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 131.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.7 -.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 156.9 -2.6%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 128.9 -.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.73 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.0 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.75 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 134.0 -5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 743.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 59.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.9 +.36%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 114.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 29.7 euros/megawatt-hour +.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -18.2 -2.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.3 +.4 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.3 -.7 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(460 of 500 reporting) +5.5% +.1 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 255.63 +.13:  Growth Rate +14.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.7 +.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.88% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +37.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 326.89 +.43: Growth Rate +36.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 31.7 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.10 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .97 +2.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -37.75 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.8% -40.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 52.3% +3.8 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.39% -11.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 65.1%(-7.6 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 52.7%(+2.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +265 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +64 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +107 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my financial/consumer discretionary/biotech/tech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long