Thursday, November 24, 2005

Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Canadian stocks rose to the highest in five years, led by dividend-paying companies such as Toronto-Dominion Bank and BCE Inc., after the government lowered taxes on the payouts and decided against taxing income trusts.
- Jordan’s King Abdullah II appointed a new prime minister and called on the government to undertake a war on terrorism in the wake of the hotel bombings Nov. 9 in the capital, Amman, that killed at least 57 people.
- Nokia Oyj said the company’s handset sales in the greater China region rose 77% in the first nine months compared with a year earlier on increasing demand.

Financial Times:
- The US newspaper industry is under threat as classified advertising moves onto the Internet and circulations continue to fall, citing News Corp. Chairman Rupert Murdoch.

Commercial Times:
- China Steel forecasts its first-quarter sales will fall by $90 million from the fourth quarter on declining product prices and the closure of one of its major plants for maintenance.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- None of note

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.13%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.15%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- None of note

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
- None of note

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mixed as gains in Taiwan are offsetting losses in Japan. I expect US equities to trade mixed into the early close at 1 pm EST as short-covering offsets profit-taking. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Wednesday, November 23, 2005

***Alert***

I will be unable to post through Thanksgiving. I will resume posting on Friday. Have a safe and happy holiday and thanks for reading.

Stocks Higher Mid-day on Rising Optimism, Lower Energy Prices and Short-Covering

Indices
S&P 500 1,267.99 +.54%
DJIA 10,928.18 +.52%
NASDAQ 2,264.74 +.50%
Russell 2000 684.47 +.28%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,672.98 +.51%
S&P Barra Growth 606.25 +.39%
S&P Barra Value 657.42 +.68%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 595.55 +.30%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 777.36 +.55%
Morgan Stanley Technology 536.23 +.87%
Transports 4,182.99 +.07%
Utilities 401.30 +.70%
Put/Call .68 -29.90%
NYSE Arms .72 -1.97%
Volatility(VIX) 10.81 +1.89%
ISE Sentiment 174.00 -1.14%
US Dollar 91.48 -.02%
CRB 314.08 -.45%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.25 -1.0%
Unleaded Gasoline 146.10 -1.78%
Natural Gas 11.66 +.40%
Heating Oil 169.25 -2.51%
Gold 491.10 -.37%
Base Metals 139.70 -.32%
Copper 185.00 +.14%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.46% +.97%

Leading Sectors
Steel +3.06%
Gaming +1.52%
Networking +1.47%

Lagging Sectors
Biotech -.71%
Oil Tankers -.72%
Gold & Silver -1.42%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day as gains in my Internet longs, Medical Information Systems longs, Semi longs, Computer longs and Retail longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is modestly higher, most sectors are rising and volume is about average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Overall, today’s market action is slightly positive considering recent gains and the bounce in long-term rates. Here are some thoughts on the Xbox 360:
1. The improvement over prior gaming systems is significant.
2. Microsoft (MSFT) over-promised to retailers.
3. There is going to be a severe shortage for the holidays.
4. Stories of ridiculous auctions on eBay (EBAY) will be common, generating more buzz.
5. The Xbox will take more market share from Sony (SNE) than most expect.
6. High definition television and surround sound equipment sales will accelerate as a result.
7. Rumors of excessive crashing are likely over-hyped.

I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher from current levels into the close on short-covering, lower energy prices and more optimism.