Tuesday, December 27, 2005

Wednesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Sharp Corp., the world’s top maker of liquid-crystal display televisions, will raise panel output by at least 10% to meet demand driven by soccer’s World Cup and the Winter Olympics, according to executives.
- Growth in Australia’s economy will accelerate to 3.3% next year as exports and business investment surge, economists said.
- The board of NY’s main transit union voted tonight in favor of a contract offer to end a dispute that sparked a three-day subway and bus strike last week, the union said.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- None of note

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.05%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.06%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- None of note

Upcoming Splits
ABC 2-for-1

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Consumer Confidence for December is estimated to rise to 102.5 versus a reading of 98.9 in November.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, dragged down by financial shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally modestly into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Near Session Lows, Led by Energy Shares

Indices
S&P 500 1,256.54 -.96%
DJIA 10,777.77 -.97%
NASDAQ 2,226.89 -1.0%
Russell 2000 676.58 -1.44%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,566.31 -1.0%
S&P Barra Growth 600.91 -1.03%
S&P Barra Value 651.33 -.88%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 595.44 -.60%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 786.89 -.75%
Morgan Stanley Technology 528.46 -.84%
Transports 4,216.26 -1.18%
Utilities 409.02 -.64%
Put/Call .88 +27.54%
NYSE Arms 1.66 +27.86%
Volatility(VIX) 11.57 +12.66%
ISE Sentiment 197.00 +23.13%
US Dollar 91.17 +.43%
CRB 324.59 -.53%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 57.80 -.62%
Unleaded Gasoline 151.30 -.03%
Natural Gas 10.97 -.43%
Heating Oil 163.65 -.03%
Gold 510.10 unch.
Base Metals 153.51 +.63%
Copper 206.95 +.10%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.33% -.98%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +1.55%
Homebuilders -.05%
Telecom -.15%

Lagging Sectors
Coal -1.98%
Energy -2.82%
Oil Service -3.13%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on BSX.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- First Data Corp. shares rose as much as 1.6% after a report today that the company is in discussions with unidentified private equity firms about a sale of its Western Union subsidiary.
- Poland’s two-month-old government plans to keep soldiers in Iraq next year, countering the previous cabinet’s pledge to pull out of the US-led operation by this week.
- Fidelity National Financial, the biggest US title insurer, agreed to buy Sedgwick CMS Holdings for $635 million to offer third-party claims management services to Fortune 500 companies.
- Natural gas futures plunged 10%, the largest one-day drop in almost 3 years, as warmer-than-normal weather slashed demand for the furnace fuel.
- US Treasury notes rose on speculation a decline in 10-year yields to below two-year yields may foreshadow an economic slowdown.
- Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma may cost insurers $57.6 billion, more than double the annual record for US natural disasters, a consulting firm said.

Reuters:
- Iraq’s political leaders plan to meet their country’s interim president in his Kurdish homeland in the next few days to lay the groundwork for a new government, citing a senior government official.

CNBC:
- Mortgage-backed securities are attractive because of their high yields relative to government and corporate debt and their credit quality, Paul McCulley, a managing director at PIMCO said.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished lower today on losses in my Medical longs, Internet longs and Semi longs. I covered some of my IWM and QQQQ shorts, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished substantially lower, almost every sector fell and volume was very light. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher into the close. The 4-basis-point decline in the 10-year Treasury note yield, besides energy declines, worried traders today. I continue to believe U.S. growth is slowing to average rates from vigorous levels before the hurricanes. This, combined with decelerating inflation readings and rising demand for U.S. assets, helped boost bonds. I do not believe bond gains are foreshadowing a meaningful slowdown in U.S. economic activity.

Stocks Sharply Lower Mid-day, Pressured by Energy Shares

Indices
S&P 500 1,258.83 -.77%
DJIA 10,800.19 -.76%
NASDAQ 2,229.91 -.87%
Russell 2000 677.68 -1.28%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,587.37 -.83%
S&P Barra Growth 602.02 -.85%
S&P Barra Value 652.50 -.70%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 596.00 -.51%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 788.37 -.56%
Morgan Stanley Technology 528.62 -.81%
Transports 4,219.88 -1.10%
Utilities 409.26 -.59%
Put/Call .93 +34.78%
NYSE Arms 1.55 +19.44%
Volatility(VIX) 11.50 +11.98%
ISE Sentiment 202.00 +26.25%
US Dollar 91.04 +.29%
CRB 323.87 -.75%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 57.65 -1.33%
Unleaded Gasoline 152.25 -1.81%
Natural Gas 11.01 -10.12%
Heating Oil 165.00 -3.24%
Gold 510.10 +.83%
Base Metals 153.51 +.63%
Copper 206.75 +1.60%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.34% -.71%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +1.89%
Gold & Silver +.07%
Homebuilders +.05%

Lagging Sectors
Coal -2.16%
Energy -2.83%
Oil Service -3.20%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower mid-day on losses in my Internet longs, Medical longs and Semi longs. I added IWM and QQQQ shorts this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, most sectors are lower and volume is light. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Overall, today’s market action is negative considering the decline in energy prices, falling long-term rates and lack of normal seasonal strength. It appears to me the losses in the energy sector, which had been one of the best performing in 2005, are prompting hedge funds to take profits in most other winners. Gains by most funds are mediocre for the year and they do not want to slip into the red. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher from current levels into the close on short-covering.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Boston Scientific plans to proceed with its $25 billion offer to buy Guidant Corp. even after the cardiac device maker said profits will sink because of product recalls.
- Hedge fund investors, frustrated by the lowest returns in three years, say they are giving more money to managers who bet on stocks and macroeconomic trends because they expect them to post the biggest gains in 2006.
- Guidant was barred by US regulators from exporting heart-rhythm devices from its principal plant in St. Paul, Minnesota, because of quality-system failures.
- Natural gas is plunging for a third day in NY, dropping almost 30% in 10 days, as warmer-than-normal weather slashed demand for the furnace fuel.

Wall Street Journal:
- Beijing’s Communist Party leadership has announced a campaign against bad manners as the city prepares to host an international throng of Olympic spectators in 2008.
- NY State AG Eliot Spitzer served subpoenas on Sony BMG Music Entertainment and Vivendi Universal’s Universal Music Group as part of an industry-wide investigation into pricing of digitally downloaded music.
- US Retail spending over the holiday shopping period rose a strong 8.7%, with the biggest increase in sales of home furnishings and consumer electronics.
- A lawsuit by as many as 1,000 employees of Cintas Corp. against unions trying to organize at the company’s plants may deter workers from supporting further organizing drive.
- GM will introduce sport-utility vehicles that consume less fuel next year, including a new version of the Chevy Tahoe, to help it reverse a decline in sales.
- Sanofi-Aventis SA investors hoping the company’s obesity drug Accomplia will become a miracle cure risk being disappointed.
- Gamco Investors’ Mario Gabelli’s involvement in more than a dozen bids for airwave licenses from the FCC have become the focus of a federal lawsuit.
- North Korea wants to end food aid from the UN and private charities to limit the international presence in the country, citing Richard Ragan, head of North Korean operations for the UN’s World Food Program.

NY Times:
- Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm is courting Toyota Motor, which has said it may build an engine plant in the Midwest.
- Louisiana planners are seeking to move an entire string of seaside Cajun towns and villages and their 4,000 residents in Cameron Parish as much as 20 miles inland.
- Sears Holdings, Target and other US retailers are tightening store policies to discourage returns because of the extra labor they involve.

NY Post:
- NYC’s Department of Health is buying radiation-detection equipment for 33 private city hospitals to prepare for the possibility of a “dirty bomb” attack.

AP:
- US companies, which contributed millions of dollars in relief following tsunamis, hurricanes and earthquakes in 2005, found their philanthropic works gave them a competitive advantage in the marketplace.
- More than 10,000 Iraqi demonstrators backing Sunni Arab and secular Shiite politicians marched through the streets of Baghdad today to push for unity throughout the country.

AFP:
- Britain and Sweden are the only European countries that are likely to meet their Kyoto Protocol commitments on greenhouse gas emissions, citing a UK study.

BBC:
- Numerous mass graves with thousands of bodies have been discovered in Iraq since the ousting of dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003.

Manufacturing Slows in Mid-Atlantic, Outlook Improves

- The Richmond Fed Index for December fell to -2 versus estimates of 10 and a reading of 9 in November.
BOTTOM LINE: Manufacturing activity in the Central Atlantic region edged lower in December, Bloomberg reported. The shipments component of the index fell to 1 from 14. The new orders component fell to -2 from 10 and a gauge of manufacturing employment in the region fell to -6 from 0. However, measures of confidence improved as the expected shipments component rose 21 points to 50. The expected new orders component of the index rose 20 to 43. The index for expected manufacturing employment rose 11 points to 10. Finally, the planned capital expenditures component rose 6 points to 18. I continue to believe manufacturing will add to US economic growth over the intermediate-term as businesses increase spending, inventories are rebuilt and hurricane rebuilding accelerates.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
IBD New America
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Monday, December 26, 2005

Tuesday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US toy sales are headed for their third straight annual decline because children like 6-year-old Dawson Painter prefer electronic games.
- President Bush asked Americans to keep the families of US military men and women in mind during the Christmas holiday, saying their wartime sacrifices are protecting the country’s freedoms.
- Eastman Kodak probably generated increased holiday sales of digital cameras and printers, boosting efforts by the world’s largest photography company to shift from its traditional film business.
- Amazon.com said holiday sale worldwide set a record this year on demand for Apple’s iPod music players, video games and jewelry.
- Royal Dutch Shell Plc said it discovered oil off Brazil’s southeastern coast and wants to start producing by the end of the decade.
- The yen is falling by the most against the euro in more than two months and had the biggest loss versus the dollar in a week after reports showed Japanese household spending unexpectedly slid and unemployment increased.
- Crude oil is falling as much as 1.4% in NY on forecasts for milder weather in the US and on expectations heating fuel stockpiles, including natural gas, are adequate to meet winter demand.

NY Times:
- Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch are among Wall Street firms investing in online casinos and betting parlors and ignoring the government’s edict that those organizations are illegal.
- Pennsylvania lawmakers are investigating whether the political atmosphere of 18 state-run universities and colleges requires legislation to ban political bias in the classroom.
- The Israeli economy is likely to grow 5% this year, up from 4% in 2004, as its technology industries approach the peak they reached in 2000.

Washington Post:
- Immigrant entrepreneurs in the US are using small vending carts or kiosks in malls as a springboard into retailing.

Economic Daily News:
- Global shipments for flat-panel displays used in computers will see a modest slide in the first quarter of 2006, falling by a single digit from the fourth quarter, citing AU Optronics Executive VP Hui.

Kommersant:
- OPEC President Sheikh al-Sabah is visiting Moscow to ask Russia to cooperate on a planned cut in oil production and to learn more about Russia’s plans to supply China.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on OSK, COP, APC and FDX.
- Had negative comments on GE and NTRI.

Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on EBAY.

Night Trading
Asian indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.13%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.24%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
CBI/.26
TDS/.29
USM/.37

Upcoming Splits
MRTN 3-for-2
KNX 3-for-2
JBLU 3-for-2
WFMI 2-for-1

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Richmond Fed Index for December is estimated to rise to 10 versus a reading of 9 in November.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mixed, as declining energy prices are offsetting disappointing economic data from Japan. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and build on gains later in the day. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Friday, December 23, 2005

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,268.66 +.11%
DJIA 10,883.27 +.07%
NASDAQ 2,249.42 -.14%
Russell 2000 686.44 +.49%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,692.96 +.20%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,108.41 +.27%
S&P Barra Growth 607.15 +.11%
S&P Barra Value 657.12 +.11%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 599.02 -.05%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 792.81 +.76%
Morgan Stanley Technology 532.92 -.32%
Transports 4,266.75 +3.0%
Utilities 411.65 -1.48%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 8,664 unch.
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 21.9 -57.93%
Put/Call .69 -13.75%
NYSE Arms 1.30 +35.42%
Volatility(VIX) 10.27 -3.84%
ISE Sentiment 160.00 -13.98%
AAII % Bulls 41.03 -11.09%
US Dollar 90.78 +1.19%
CRB 326.31 -.01%
ECRI Weekly Leading Index 135.40 -.07%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.43 -.97%
Unleaded Gasoline 155.05 -.48%
Natural Gas 12.28 -10.01%
Heating Oil 170.53 -1.63%
Gold 505.90 -.16%
Base Metals 153.51 -.14%
Copper 203.50 +.20%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.38% -1.35%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.26% -.63%

Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +8.45%
Gaming +2.94%
Drugs +2.92%

Lagging Sectors
Internet -1.33%
Utilities -1.48%
Oil Tankers -2.0%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers
One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day % Change

***Alert***

I am done posting for the day. I will post the Weekly Scoreboard this evening.

Chart of Interest

Image hosted by Photobucket.com

Durable Goods Orders Jump, Consumer Confidence Rises Most in 13 Years Last 2 Months, New Home Sales Weaken

- Durable Goods Orders for November rose 4.4% versus estimates of a 1.2% increase and a 3.0% gain in October.
- Durables Ex Transportation for November fell .6% versus estimates of a 1.0% gain and a .2% decline in October.
- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for December rose to 91.5 versus estimates of 89.0 and a prior estimate of 88.7.
- New Home Sales for November fell to 1245K versus estimates of 1300K and 1404K in October.
BOTTOM LINE: US orders for durable goods jumped 4.4% in November, the most in six months, propelled by a surge in demand for aircraft, Bloomberg reported. Orders for transportation equipment soared 15.6% versus an 11.2% gain the prior month. Orders for defense hardware plunged 27% in November. Bookings for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for future business investment, dropped 2% last month. The decline in durables ex transportation is surprising given record low inventory levels. I would expect to see an increase in this number next month.

US consumer confidence rose in December to the highest since July as lower gas prices and a rising stock market gave Americans more money to spend for the holidays, Bloomberg reported. The expectations component of the index soared to 80.2 from 69.6 the prior month. The current conditions component of the index, which is a gauge of Americans’ perception of their financial situation and if it’s a good time to purchase large items such as cars, jumped to 109.1 from 100.2 in November. Consumer confidence has now surged 17.3 percentage points in two months, the biggest two-month gain since the final two months of 1992. I expect consumer confidence to reach cycle highs over the intermediate-term as rising stock prices, low interest rates, an end to the Fed tightening cycle, falling energy prices, a stable job market and lower inflation readings more than offset a slowing housing market, thus leading to a lifting of the irrational pessimism that has developed since the bursting of the stock market bubble and 9/11 terrorist attacks.

US new home sales in November fell as rising mortgage rates and elevated prices discouraged some buyers, Bloomberg reported. Sales fell 11.3% from an all-time high in October, while the median price of a new home rose slightly to $225,200. The supply of new homes at the current sales rate increased to 4.9 months, the most in 9 years. Sales fell 22.1% in the West, 18.3% in the Midwest and 5.5% in the South. Sales rose 13.4% in the Northeast. I continue to expect the housing market to slow to more healthy, sustainable levels from all-time record highs. This will likely lead to a slowing in the overall US economy to average rates from high rates, which will benefit US stocks.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
IBD New America
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- A Washington, DC law aimed at capping pharmaceutical prices was ruled unconstitutional by a federal court.
- Families and friends of the estimated 220,000 people killed or missing after the Indian Ocean tsunami will attend beachside ceremonies marking the first anniversary of the disaster of Dec. 26.
- Samsung Electronics, the world’s largest maker of memory chips and liquid-crystal displays, expects fourth-quarter profit from both products to beat its earlier projections because of cost cuts and flat-panel television demand.
- Asian contract rates for coal used in power plants may fall more than 20% next year as Indonesia and rival mining nations raised output after prices surged, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said.

Financial Times:
- For the first time since 2001, the four largest US investment banks each had more than $1 billion in mergers and acquisitions revenue this year.
- As much as a third of the $590 million spent by the United Nations on aid following last year’s Indian Ocean tsunami went to administrators and related costs.
- Google founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page have been named “Mean of the Year,” citing its own poll.

Dong-a Ilbo:
- Hwang Woo Suk falsified a 2005 landmark study on stem cell research, according to findings by a Seoul National University internal investigation, citing a Seoul National official.

Seoul Economic:
- Samsung Electronics will begin production at its newest liquid-crystal display factory about three months ahead of schedule because of rising demand for LCD televisions.

Nihon Keizai:
- Sony Corp. has developed an 82-inch liquid-crystal display television to compete against market leader Sharp Corp.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Underperform on SBSA.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.03%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
NDN/.06

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Durable Goods Orders for November are estimated to rise 1.2% versus a 3.4% gain in October.
- Durables Ex Transportation for November are estimated to rise 1.0% versus a .3% gain in October.

9:45 am EST
- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for December is estimated to rise to 89.0 versus a reading of 88.7 in November.

10:00 am EST
- New Home Sales for November are estimated to fall to 1300K versus 1424K in October.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by tech shares in the region after Samsung boosted its earnings forecast. I expect US equities to open higher and to build modestly on gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Thursday, December 22, 2005

Stocks Finish Near Session Highs as Natural Gas Plunges and Long-term Rates Fall

Indices
S&P 500 1,268.12 +.42%
DJIA 10,889.44 +.51%
NASDAQ 2,246.49 +.66%
Russell 2000 684.08 +.64%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,681.68 +.46%
S&P Barra Growth 606.96 +.36%
S&P Barra Value 656.77 +.49%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 601.61 +.12%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 790.85 +.43%
Morgan Stanley Technology 532.34 +.88%
Transports 4,250.61 +1.24%
Utilities 410.88 +.65%
Put/Call .75 +5.63%
NYSE Arms .83 -5.92%
Volatility(VIX) 10.29 -4.81%
ISE Sentiment 144.00 -29.41%
US Dollar 90.77 -.19%
CRB 326.76 +.07%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.22 -.10%
Unleaded Gasoline 154.06 +.27%
Natural Gas 12.82 -.79%
Heating Oil 174.00 unch.
Gold 506.50 +.30%
Base Metals 152.55 +.58%
Copper 202.55 unch.
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.43% -1.27%

Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +2.15%
Biotech +1.84%
HMOs +1.46%

Lagging Sectors
Energy -.14%
Broadcasting -.23%
Oil Tankers -.23%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on GE.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Medicare drug plans have enrolled 21 million customers so far, with 1 million getting prescription coverage for the first time.
- Natural gas futures had their biggest drop in more than two and a half years because of mild weather forecasts and a smaller-than-expected decline in stored supplies.
- The European Union threatened to fine Microsoft as much as $2.4 million a day for failing to comply with a 2004 antitrust order.
- US Treasuries rose after the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation increased less than forecast, narrowing the gap between two- and 10-year note yields to the least since the start of January 2001.
- The US and leading contributors to the UN proposed a $900 million spending limit for the organization in 2006 while talks continue on ways to overhaul its scandal-plagued management.

Wall Street Journal:
- Tommy Hilfiger is in final negotiations to be sold to private equity firm Apax Partners for more than $1.5 billion.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished substantially higher today on gains in my Medical longs, Software longs, Semi longs and Internet longs. I added to my PWR long and OMM short, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was positive today as the advance/decline line finished higher, most sectors rose and volume was below average. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed into the close. Overall, today's action was pretty good for the bulls as the major averages and breadth finished near session highs with almost every sector contributing and tech outperforming. The 10-year Treasury note yield closed near session lows of 4.42%, falling 6 basis points. Moreover, natural gas fell 10.5% today from session highs. I expect US stocks to build on gains tomorrow.

Stocks Modestly Higher Mid-day as Natural Gas Falls Substantially

Indices
S&P 500 1,266.35 +.28%
DJIA 10,872.39 +.35%
NASDAQ 2,240.01 +.38%
Russell 2000 682.57 +.41%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,659.33 +.28%
S&P Barra Growth 605.78 +.16%
S&P Barra Value 656.05 +.38%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 600.72 -.03%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 790.15 +.35%
Morgan Stanley Technology 530.78 +.58%
Transports 4,246.03 +1.12%
Utilities 409.72 +.36%
Put/Call .72 +1.41%
NYSE Arms .85 -4.44%
Volatility(VIX) 10.51 -2.78%
ISE Sentiment 172.00 -15.69%
US Dollar 90.73 -.23%
CRB 326.05 -.11%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.25 -.53%
Unleaded Gasoline 153.75 +.07%
Natural Gas 12.89 -9.68%
Heating Oil 174.00 -.93%
Gold 505.90 +2.14%
Base Metals 152.55 +.58%
Copper 202.55 +.40%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.42% -1.36%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +1.47%
HMOs +1.40%
Biotech +1.23%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Service -.23%
Broadcasting -.33%
Oil Tankers -.66%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is substantially higher mid-day on gains in my Semi longs, Medical longs, Internet longs and Energy shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are higher and volume is below average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly lower. Overall, today’s market action is mildly positive considering the decline in natural gas and long-term rates. The AAII percentage bulls fell to 41.03% this week from 46.15% the prior week. This reading is now at below-average levels and has declined 18 percentage points in six weeks. The percentage bears rose to 28.21% from 22.12% the prior week. This reading is now back to average levels and has increased 12 percentage points in four weeks. I expect bullish sentiment to fall modestly again next week. The fact that bullishness has declined to this extent with the market near a four-year high bodes very well for another push higher in the major averages during first quarter 2006. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close on short-covering and falling energy prices.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- UK Prime Minister Tony Blair arrived in Iraq on an unannounced trip to visit British troops and US officials.
- Japan’s population will decline this year for the first time since 1899, a trend that is expected to continue, reducing the government’s ability to raise tax revenue and repay debt.
- GE will buy Arden Realty for $45.25/share, adding the biggest publicly traded landlord in southern California as US real estate acquisitions accelerate.
- Placer Dome agreed to an increased takeover offer from Barrick Gold valued at $10.4 billion, uniting the two Canadian companies to create the world’s largest gold producer.
- Natural Gas prices are having their biggest drop in more than a year because of mild weather forecasts and a smaller-than-expected decline in stored supplies.
- Striking subway and bus workers in NYC agreed to end a three-day walkout today.

Wall Street Journal:
- Albertson’s may not accept a takeover offer from investors including Cerberus Capital Management, valuing the company at $9.6 billion.
- EntreMed’s cancer drug has shown promising results in human tests in China after failing to meet test objectives in the US.
- John Whitehead, former chairman of Goldman Sachs, said New York Democratic Attorney General Eliot Spitzer phoned him and said there was a “war” between them after Whitehead criticized Spitzer in an April commentary.

NY Times:
- President Bush has met with new NAACP President Gordon three times since September as he seeks to reach out to critics.

USA Today:
- NY’s population fell and more Californians left than moved in, citing Census figures.
- Volunteers and non-governmental organizations are helping rebuild areas affected by Hurricane Katrina as relief work moves forward.

Daily Telegraph:
- Harley-Davidson now has a larger market value than GM.

Interfax:
- Russian President Putin called on the government to boost the attractiveness of the nation’s energy industry for foreign investors.

CNBC:
- Ford Motor union workers at three plants rejected a health-care plan that would save the automaker $850 million annually.

Incomes and Spending Healthy, Another Measure of Inflation Decelerates, Leading Indicators Point to Further Strength

- Personal Income for November rose .3% versus estimates of a .3% increase and a .5% gain in October.
- Personal Spending for November rose .3% versus estimates of a .4% increase and a .2% gain in October.
- The PCE Core for November rose .1% versus estimates of a .2% increase and a .1% gain in October.
- Leading Indicators for November rose .5% versus estimates of a .5% increase and an upwardly revised 1.0% gain in October.
BOTTOM LINE: US consumer spending rose in November as auto sales recovered from a 7-year low and prices increased less than expected, Bloomberg reported. Rising incomes, increasing home values, rising stocks prices and falling gas prices are helping to boost consumer spending. The year-over-year gain in the PCE Core, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, of 1.8% is the smallest since March 2004. Income and spending growth should decelerate modestly in 2006, along with the PCE Core. This should help keep long-term interest rates near historically low levels.

The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits fell 13,000 last week, suggesting companies are keeping workers and hiring new ones to meet demand, Bloomberg said. The four-week moving average decreased to 324,500 from 329,250 the prior week. The unemployment rate for those eligible for claims, which follow the US unemployment rate, rose to 2.1% from 2.0% the prior week. I continue to believe the labor market will remain healthy over the intermediate-term without generating substantial inflation pressures.

The US index of leading economic indicators rose in November for a second month as the labor market improved and consumers became more optimistic, Bloomberg said. Leading Indicators are still pointing to healthy economic growth.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
IBD New America
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Wednesday, December 21, 2005

Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US foodmakers are betting on a rebound of sales of sweets and baked goods and are introducing new items, including breakfast cookies and dessert pizzas.
- World oil markets are “well supplied,” OPEC President Sheikh Amad Fahd al-Sabah said today in Beijing.
- The US Senate passed a six-month extension of the USA Patriot Act after talks failed to produce a new version of the anti-terrorism law, part of which will expire at the end of the year.

Financial Times:
- Procter & Gamble will adopt the distribution systems and business practices of Gillette Co., which the biggest US household-goods maker bought for $57 billion, citing an interview with CEO Lafley.

Nihon Keizai:
- Sony Corp. is among companies that Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal is considering for investment.

NHK Television:
- KDDI Corp. plans to tie up with Qualcomm Inc. to start distributing television programs for mobile phones in Japan.

Hindu Business Line:
- Coal India Ltd. may cut output of the fuel as inventories pile up at thermal power plants and mines in the country.

Kyodo News:
- Japan’s Foreign Minister Taro Aso said China’s increasing military presence is “beginning to be a considerable threat” to Japan.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on ALK, CAKE, SBUX.
- Reiterated Underperform on DRI, MU and HRB.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.75% to -.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.03%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
AGE/.71
AM/.58
CTAS/.48
CAG/.38
DCN/-.02
GIS/.96
GPN/.35
OLG/.66
SLR/.03

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Personal Income for November is estimated to rise .3% versus a .4% increase in October.
- Personal Spending for November is estimated to rise .4% versus a .2% gain in October.
- The PCE Core for November is estimated to rise .2% versus a .1% gain in October.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 325K versus 329K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2580K versus 2606K prior.

10:00 am EST
- Leading Indicators for November are estimated to rise .4% versus a .9% increase in October.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower on profit-taking in the region after recent strong gains. I expect US equities to open mixed and to trade modestly higher into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Modestly Higher on Merger Activity and Strong US Economic Growth

Indices
S&P 500 1,262.79 +.25%
DJIA 10,833.73 +.26%
NASDAQ 2,231.66 +.42%
Russell 2000 679.74 +1.03%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,623.75 +.35%
S&P Barra Growth 604.78 +.24%
S&P Barra Value 653.59 +.27%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 600.89 +.27%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 787.43 +1.16%
Morgan Stanley Technology 527.70 +.55%
Transports 4,198.69 +2.33%
Utilities 408.24 -1.21%
Put/Call .71 -37.72%
NYSE Arms .89 -21.66%
Volatility(VIX) 10.81 -3.40%
ISE Sentiment 204.00 -17.41%
US Dollar 91.00 +.24%
CRB 326.53 +.22%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.65 +.17%
Unleaded Gasoline 154.20 +.36%
Natural Gas 14.31 +.28%
Heating Oil 176.05 +.23%
Gold 497.70 +.48%
Base Metals 151.67 +.39%
Copper 201.50 -.12%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.49% +.66%

Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +7.55%
Gold & Silver +2.48%
Gaming +1.90%

Lagging Sectors
Semis -.33%
Telecom -.52%
Utilities -1.21%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on WCC, IBM, PFE, CEM, FD, CCU and GNW.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- French Connection Group Plc, the owner of fashion stores in Europe, the US and Asia, has won a fight to continue using its FCUK logo on watches and jewelry, the BBC said on its Web site.
- Research In Motion said third-quarter profit rose 33%, beating analysts’ estimates and soothing concerns about customer defections.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Medical longs, Medical Information System longs and Computer longs. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was positive today as the advance/decline line finished higher, most sector rose and volume was slightly below average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Overall, I would classify today's action as neutral. The major averages and breadth are finishing modestly higher, however the afternoon weakness was disappointing for the bulls. My sense is that hedge funds, which now dominate trading, are very worried about a January swoon in stocks and have been positioning accordingly, which should benefit stocks in January. I expect stocks to put in a better showing to end the week.

Stocks Higher Mid-day on Merger Activity

Indices
S&P 500 1,264.47 +.38%
DJIA 10,855.42 +.47%
NASDAQ 2,232.42 +.45%
Russell 2000 678.50 +.85%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,632.89 +.42%
S&P Barra Growth 605.62 +.38%
S&P Barra Value 654.38 +.39%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 601.07 +.31%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 786.94 +1.09%
Morgan Stanley Technology 527.29 +.47%
Transports 4,197.43 +2.30%
Utilities 410.71 -.61%
Put/Call .58 -49.12%
NYSE Arms .79 -30.04%
Volatility(VIX) 11.67 -4.83%
ISE Sentiment 226.00 -8.50%
US Dollar 91.03 +.28%
CRB 325.69 -.04%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.35 +.45%
Unleaded Gasoline 151.70 +.54%
Natural Gas 14.11 +.21%
Heating Oil 175.20 +1.84%
Gold 495.30 -.34%
Base Metals 151.67 +.39%
Copper 201.75 -.12%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.48% +.57%

Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +6.78%
Steel +1.75%
Gaming +1.62%

Lagging Sectors
Semis -.09%
Telecom -.37%
Utilities -.70%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Semi longs, Medical longs and Medical Information System longs. I covered the rest of my IWM and QQQQ shorts this morning and was stopped-out of a short, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are higher and volume is about average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly lower. Overall, today’s market action is mildly positive considering recent trading. The Fed's Lacker is saying that he sees 3.5% real GDP growth next year, with household spending rising 3.5% as well. However, he said he sees "substantially faster" business investment. He said core inflation has been low and steady, but the Fed must respond vigorously to inflation signs. Finally, he says housing activity will cool next year. It is a positive that the Fed is acknowledging the slowing housing market. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close on short-covering.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Bloomingdale’s employees outnumbered lunchtime shoppers in the New York store’s main floor cosmetic department yesterday as the city’s first full-scale transit strike in 25 years kept customers away.
- The trial of ousted dictator Saddam Hussein resumed in Baghdad today after a two-week break due to Saddam’s refusal to attend court on Dec. 7.
- Allergan, maker of the Botox anti-wrinkle treatment, agreed to buy Inamed for $3.42 billion in cash and stock, adding Inamed’s wrinkke-smoothing Juvederm and saline breast implants.
- IBM agreed to buy Micromuse, a provider of network management software, for about $865 million in cash.
- President Bush accused Senate Democrats of “inexcusable” obstruction for failing to extend provisions of the USA Patriot Act that are scheduled to lapse at year’s end.
- The US Senate approved a package of $39.7 billion in spending cuts with Vice President Chaney casting the tie-breaking vote.
- US Senate Democrats blocked a bid to allow oil drilling in Alaska.
- Boeing may boost annual output of the new 787 plane because of strong demand and is considering another long-range version of the aircraft.

Wall Street Journal:
- China wants to use its enormous appetite for raw materials to screw down prices paid to suppliers.
- Seagate Technology, a California-based maker of computer disk drives, agreed to buy Maxtor for $1.9 billion in stock.
- Bank of America will tie up with American Express to issue a new range of credit cards as it seeks to win more big spenders.
- Toyota Motor is using automotive components and technologies to develop products including wheelchairs and orthopedic mattresses for Japan’s elderly.
- General Electric is in advanced talks with unidentified partners to buy Arden Realty, a southern California real-estate investment trust worth more than $3.1 billion.
- Thomas H. Lee Partners LP, one of the world’s biggest private-equity firms, has been thrown into turmoil by the departure of its founding partner, after whom it’s named.
- GMAC, which has been the subject of takeover interest, is being targeted by companies including Wachovia and JPMorgan Chase.
- Time Warner Executive Vice President Olaf Olafsson took control of negotiations over the sale of a stake in AOL after AOL executives expressed reservations about Microsoft’s technology.

NY Times:
- Sling Media’s Slingbox has the potential to further fragment the television-viewing audience.

AFP:
- OPEC will let the world’s leading industrial nations build up their stockpiles of oil during the next three months.

Detroit News:
- Hyundai Motor, South Korea’s largest automaker, will invest $94 million and add 600 jobs to expand a new technical center near Ann Arbor, Michigan.

LA Times:
- Crime in Los Angeles has fallen by about 10% this year and is on target for a third consecutive year of significant decline, citing Police Chief William J. Bratton.

CNBC:
- Billionaire Kirk Kerkorian may restore his stake in GM to 9.9%.

US Economic Growth Streak Best Since 1986

- Final 3Q GDP rose 4.1% versus estimates of a 4.3% gain and prior estimates of a 4.3% increase.
- Final 3Q Personal Consumption rose 4.1% versus estimates of a 4.2% gain and prior estimates of a 4.2% increase.
- Final 3Q GDP Price Index rose 3.3% versus estimates of a 3.0% increase and prior estimates of a 3.0% gain.
BOTTOM LINE: The US economy grew at a 4.1% annual rate in the third quarter, substantially higher than the 20-year average of 3.1%, Bloomberg reported. The economy has now grown by 3% or more for 10 straight quarters, the best streak since 1986. I expect US growth to slow to average levels next year, which will be viewed positively by equity investors.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
IBD New America
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Tuesday, December 20, 2005

Wednesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Chevron said hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico that shut oil wells and the company’s biggest refinery probably cut fourth-quarter profit by more than $600 million.
- Crude oil in NY is little changed, after rising yesterday for the first day in five, on expectations a US government report will show supplies dropped.
- Billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian, GM’s third-biggest shareholder, sold almost a fifth of his 9.9% stake in the company after the investment lost one-third of its value.
- Time Warner agreed to sell Google a stake in AOL to help revive the Web unit’s sales.
- Calpine, the US power plant owner saddled with more than $17 billion in debt, filed for bankruptcy protection after soaring natural gas prices left it unable to make loan and bond payments.
- Citigroup is leading a bid of at least $2.7 billion for 85% of Guangdong Development Bank, the first state-owned Chinese lender to offer investors a majority stake.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on TYC and GOOG.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +.50% to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.09%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.18%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
BBBY/.45
BMET/.43
KMX/.212
CMC/1.18
FDO/.31
FDX/1.40
MLHR/.39
JOYG/.45
MU/.11
PAYX/.29
RHAT/.09

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Final 3Q GDP is estimated at 4.3% versus prior estimates of 4.3%.
- Final 3Q Personal Consumption is estimated at 4.2% versus prior estimates of 4.2%.
- The Final GDP Price Index is estimated at 3.0% versus prior estimates of 3.0%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by exporters in the region after the US dollar rose. I expect US equities to open mixed and to trade modestly higher into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Slightly Lower on GM Worries and a Bounce in Energy Prices

Indices
S&P 500 1,259.62 -.02%
DJIA 10,805.55 -.29%
NASDAQ 2,222.42 -.01%
Russell 2000 672.78 +.08%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,580.03 +.02%
S&P Barra Growth 603.35 -.09%
S&P Barra Value 651.84 +.05%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 599.25 -.21%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 778.43 -.23%
Morgan Stanley Technology 524.81 -.20%
Transports 4,103.12 -.12%
Utilities 413.22 +.26%
Put/Call 1.14 +22.58%
NYSE Arms 1.13 +25.54%
Volatility(VIX) 11.19 -1.67%
ISE Sentiment 247.00 +6.01%
US Dollar 90.79 +1.02%
CRB 325.81 -.09%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 58.18 +.15%
Unleaded Gasoline 151.32 +.29%
Natural Gas 14.12 +.30%
Heating Oil 172.20 +.10%
Gold 494.90 -.42%
Base Metals 151.09 -.68%
Copper 202.00 unch.
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.46% +.49%

Leading Sectors
Oil Service +2.07%
Gaming +1.75%
HMOs +1.37%

Lagging Sectors
Disk Drives -.79%
Networking -1.19%
Gold & Silver -1.39%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on S.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The Transport Workers Union may try to take over its striking NY Local 100 and seek a settlement with the Metropolitan Transport Authority.
- Richard McCabe is retiring as chief market analyst at Merrill Lynch after 43 years with the NY-based company. Mary Ann Bartels, Merrill’s equity-trading strategist, will succeed him.
- Electronic Arts cut its sales and profit forecasts for this quarter and next.
- Gold fell to $495 an ounce, down $50 in just over a week, after US producer prices tumbled in November by the most since April 2003, reducing the appeal of the precious metal as a hedge against inflation.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly lower today on losses in my Energy-related shorts. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was slightly negative today as the advance/decline line finished lower, sector performance was mixed and volume was average. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed into the close. Overall, today's action was mildly bearish. Investors likely need to see GM stabilize, natural gas fall further, some more positive holiday shopping data points and a quick end to the NY transit strike before a meaningful push higher in stocks can occur.

Stocks Mixed Mid-day as Bounce in Energy Prices Offsets More Positive Economic Data

Indices
S&P 500 1,260.17 +.02%
DJIA 10,813.79 -.21%
NASDAQ 2,224.70 +.09%
Russell 2000 675.49 +.48%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,589.06 +.09%
S&P Barra Growth 603.67 -.04%
S&P Barra Value 652.05 +.08%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 599.76 -.12%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 780.01 -.03%
Morgan Stanley Technology 524.68 -.23%
Transports 4,117.59 +.24%
Utilities 413.59 +.35%
Put/Call 1.13 +21.51%
NYSE Arms 1.14 +24.91%
Volatility(VIX) 11.15 -1.85%
ISE Sentiment 252.00 +8.15%
US Dollar 90.84 +1.07%
CRB 325.74 -.11%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 57.90 +.98%
Unleaded Gasoline 151.40 -.84%
Natural Gas 13.98 -.45%
Heating Oil 172.20 +1.10%
Gold 495.80 -2.0%
Base Metals 151.09 -.68%
Copper 202.10 +.40%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.46% +.53%

Leading Sectors
Oil Service +2.13%
Gaming +1.87%
HMOs +1.68%

Lagging Sectors
Disk Drives -.84%
Telecom -.89%
Gold & Silver -1.94%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower mid-day on losses in my Energy-related shorts. I covered some of my IWM and QQQQ shorts this morning and added to my ELOS, ANF and BRCM longs, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is slightly higher, most sectors are higher and volume is about average. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Overall, today’s market action is neutral considering more positive economic data and the bears inability to extend yesterday’s sell-off. The Johnson Redbook same-store sales index rose 3.4% year-over-year last week vs. a 3.3% rise the prior week. This week's gain is up from a 1.5% increase in late April, and it's the 33rd week in a row that the index has risen 3% or more. The Morgan Stanley Retail Index (MVRX) has returned 14.3% since late October vs. a 7.6% gain for the S&P 500. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close on short-covering.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Japan’s stock market will be among the world’s “worst performers” in the next three months as a strengthening yen lowers the value of exporters’ overseas sales, according to Goldman Sachs’ Kenneth Courtis.
- New Yorkers woke up to a transit strike and set out to travel to work without public transportation for the first time in a quarter of a century.
- A Pennsylvania school district cannot require the teaching of intelligent design in high school biology classes, a federal judge ruled in a case that may influence other challenges to the theory of evolution.
- Chevron said it discovered oil in the deepest well ever drilled in the Gulf of Mexico in a joint effort with three other companies including Canada’s Nexen, the field operator.
- Shares of GM fell as much as 6.8% to a 23-year low.
- The US dollar climbed the most in six months against the euro and advanced versus the yen as a report showing gains in US housing spurred optimism for US assets.
- Exxon Mobil and BP Plc were sued by a local development agency in Alaska that alleged the companies withheld natural gas from US markets.
- Morgan Stanley increased bets in commodity markets by 53% in the fiscal fourth quarter, faster than in any other market.
- Gold is falling below $500/oz. for the first time since Nov. 30.

Wall Street Journal:
- Ford Motor plans to support efforts by environmental groups to stabilize global carbon dioxide emissions, becoming the first automaker to back such programs.
- Apollo Advisers, a private equity firm, is close to agreeing to buy the plastics and adhesives unit of Tyco International for about $1 billion.
- News Corp.’s Fox Film Entertainment said yesterday it will start a unit making films and other entertainment distributed via the Internet and cell phones for teenagers and young adults.

NY Times:
- Google will experiment with advertisements using logos and graphics on its Web site, a change of policy prompted by talks with Time Warner’s AOL unit.

Reuters:
- US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld ordered a cut in the number of American troops in Afghanistan to about 16,000 from the current 19,000 by next spring.

CNBC:
- Steve Forbes, CEO of Forbes Inc., said the US economy will enter a recession by 2008 if Congress doesn’t extend tax cuts on dividends and capital gains.
- Sprint Nextel agreed to buy Nextel Partners for about $28.50 a share.

Producer Prices Fall the Most in Almost 3 Years, Housing Starts Exceed Estimates

- The Producer Price Index for November fell .7% versus estimates of a .5% decline and a .7% gain in October.
- The PPI Ex Food & Energy for November rose .1% versus estimates of a .2% increase and a .3% decline in October.
- Housing Starts for November rose to 2123K versus estimates of 2018K and 2017K in October.
- Building Permits for November rose to 2155K versus estimates of 2091K and 2103K in October.
BOTTOM LINE: US producer prices fell in November by the most since April 2003 as energy prices receded, a government report showed, Bloomberg reported. Core prices are rising at a 1.8% annual pace this year versus a 2.2% rate at the same time last year. The cost of energy fell 4.0% last month, the largest fall in 2 ½ years. As well, car prices fell .8%, computers fell 1.1% and capital equipment prices declined .1%. I continue to believe most measures of inflation will continue to decelerate through next year.

US housing starts in November rose by the most in seven months as a pickup in jobs and reconstruction after the hurricanes reignited the homebuilding market. Home sales have set four consecutive annual records. The National Assoc. of Realtors is forecasting a 4.8% decline in home starts next year. New housing starts increased 12.3% in the Midwest, 11.5% in the West and 11% in the Northeast. Starts declined 1.3% in the South. I continue to believe housing is slowing to more healthy sustainable levels.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
IBD New America
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Monday, December 19, 2005

Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- About 500 pounds of commercial explosives were stolen yesterday from an Albuquerque business licensed by the US government.
- President Bush’s job-approval rating rose 8 percentage points in one month to 47%, with the public viewing his handling of the war in Iraq more favorably, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll.
- Honda Motor said its auto sales may rise 4% next year in the US, helped by demand for its redesigned Civic and other new vehicles.
- Japan’s government, the world’s biggest debtor, will reduce bond sales for the first time in nine years as it cuts spending and economic growth boosts tax receipts.

Financial Times:
- Average company dividend pay-out ratios are to rise by 60% over the next four years, citing a report by Eaton Vance, the largest US manager of funds designed to minimize taxes.
- US hotels may report record profits on higher room rates, tighter supply of accommodation and a recovery in business travel since September 2001, citing research by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.

Xinhua News:
- Wuhan Iron & Steel Group, China’s third-largest steelmaker, acquired Liiuzhou Iron & Steel Group as the industry consolidates amid an oversupply of steel.

Interfax:
- The al-Qaeda terrorist network has lost 70% of its highest-ranking members in the international war against terrorism, citing Sergei Lebedev, director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on CFC, UVN and EBAY.
- Reiterated Underperform on HRB, STXS and TCO.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.05%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.06%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
PLB/.05
BSG/.17
FDS/.34
FLS/.28
JBL/.42
KEGS/.20
MWD/1.08
NKE/1.03
PALM/.43

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Producer Price Index for November is estimated to fall .5% versus a .7% rise in October.
- The PPI Ex Food & Energy for November is estimated to rise .2% versus a .3% fall in October.
- Housing Starts for November are estimated to rise to 2020K versus 2014K in October.
- Building Permits for November are estimated to fall to 2090K versus 2103K in October.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mixed as gains in financial shares are offsetting losses in commodity stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to trade modestly lower into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Lower After Housing Index Unexpectedly Declines

Indices
S&P 500 1,259.92 -.58%
DJIA 10,836.53 -.36%
NASDAQ 2,222.74 -1.32%
Russell 2000 672.25 -1.59%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,577.35 -.71%
S&P Barra Growth 603.91 -.43%
S&P Barra Value 651.53 -.74%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 600.51 +.20%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 780.26 -.83%
Morgan Stanley Technology 525.84 -1.64%
Transports 4,108.15 -.83%
Utilities 412.14 -1.36%
Put/Call .93 +16.25%
NYSE Arms .88 -7.90%
Volatility(VIX) 11.38 +6.55%
ISE Sentiment 230.00 +23.66%
US Dollar 89.88 +.21%
CRB 326.06 -.08%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 57.40 +.10%
Unleaded Gasoline 152.69 -2.68%
Natural Gas 14.18 +.98%
Heating Oil 170.75 +.25%
Gold 506.60 +.10%
Base Metals 152.12 -.76%
Copper 201.10 -.10%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.43% +.09%

Leading Sectors
Drugs +2.56%
Disk Drives +.01%
Telecom -.07%

Lagging Sectors
Steel -1.65%
Biotech -1.84%
Semis -2.30%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on KR.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- El Paso said it agreed to sell the majority of its remaining wholesale power trading portfolio to Morgan Stanley Capital Group for $442 million.
- Ford Motor was cut to junk by Fitch Ratings amid falling sales, forcing the bonds of its finance unit out of Lehman Brothers Holdings’ investment-grade index.
- New York’s economy has been hurt by a threatened bus and subway strike as negotiations between transit workers and the state-run Metropolitan Transportation Authority approach a midnight deadline.
- Crude oil and heating oil fell to the lowest this month on forecasts that a warm weather system will move across the northern US.

Dow Jones Newswire:
- The NY Merc, the word’s largest energy market, received an expression of interest from the Chicago Merc for a possible investment stake.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly lower today on losses in my Semi longs and Airline longs. I added to my IWM and QQQQ shorts in the afternoon and took profits in a few existing longs, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished substantially lower, almost every sector fell and volume was average. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed into the close. Overall, today's action was bearish as the major indices and breadth finished near session lows. This is even more disappointing for the bulls, considering another drop in oil and stable long-term rates. It appears as though investors are factoring in a substantial slowdown in consumer spending on technology products. I believe this fear will prove unfounded. However, the technical action of late leads me to conclude more sideways action is in store.

Stocks Lower Mid-day on Weakness in Small-caps

Indices
S&P 500 1,262.57 -.37%
DJIA 10,849.91 -.23%
NASDAQ 2,234.73 -.79%
Russell 2000 674.14 -1.31%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,607.76 -.47%
S&P Barra Growth 605.68%
S&P Barra Value 652.54 -.58%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 601.40 +.35%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 781.18 -.71%
Morgan Stanley Technology 529.77 -.91%
Transports 4,116.76 -.62%
Utilities 412.55 -1.25%
Put/Call .99 +23.75%
NYSE Arms .79 -17.43%
Volatility(VIX) 11.12 +4.12%
ISE Sentiment 226.00 +21.51%
US Dollar 89.94 +.27%
CRB 326.23 -.04%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 57.40 -1.14%
Unleaded Gasoline 153.10 -2.42%
Natural Gas 13.98 +2.62%
Heating Oil 171.20 -1.15%
Gold 506.70 +.16%
Base Metals 152.12 -.76%
Copper 201.40 -.74%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.43% unch.

Leading Sectors
Drugs +2.88%
Papers +.15%
Telecom -.11%

Lagging Sectors
Homebuilders -1.36%
Steel -1.53%
HMOs -1.56%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower mid-day on losses in my Semi longs and Medical longs. I covered my IWM and QQQQ shorts this morning and added back to them, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, most sectors are lower and volume is slightly below average. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Overall, today’s market action is negative considering the decline in energy prices and recent positive economic reports. The fact that Yahoo! (YHOO) is approaching a 52-week high notwithstanding the Google (GOOG)/AOL news illustrates the magnitude of the opportunity for both parties in my opinion. Google is trading at another all-time high, up $4.50. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close on fears that a slowing housing market will damage consumer spending.