Tuesday, January 17, 2006

Wednesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Livedoor Co., the Japanese Internet company raided by prosecutors, plans to release a statement today about media reports that the company falsified earnings.
- Berkshire Hathaway(BRK/A) sold almost a third of its stake in H&R Block(HRB) in the second and third quarters of 2005, regulatory filings show.
- The Shanghai Stock Exchange plans to let companies convert foreign-currency B shares into yuan stock starting this year, marking an end to China’s 15-year experiment with different classes of domestic equity.
- Asian stocks are falling, wiping out gains for the year, after fourth-quarter earnings from Intel disappointed some investors.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on (FCX), (YHOO), (DOX) and (USB).

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -3.50% to -1.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.96%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -1.74%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
(AMD).26
(AMTD).22
(APH).60
(AMR)-2.55
(AAPL).61
(BK).53
(SCHB).14
(CIT)1.04
(EBAY).22
(JPM).72
(KMP).56
(LRCX).39
(MEL).49
(QLGC).35
(STX).52
(LUV).13
(STT).73
(WM).90

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Consumer Price Index for December is estimated to rise .2% versus a -.6% fall in November.
- The CPI Ex Food & Energy for December is estimated to rise .2% versus a .2% increase in November.

9:00 am EST
- Net Foreign Security Purchases for November are estimated to fall to $85.0B versus $106.8B in October.

1:00 pm EST
- NAHB Housing Market Index for January is estimated to rise to 58 versus a reading of 57 in December.

2:00 pm EST
- The Fed’s Beige Book

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by tech companies in the region. I expect US equities to open sharply lower and to rally later in the day, but still finish lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Lower on Rising Energy Prices and Profit-taking

Indices
S&P 500 1,282.93 -.36%
DJIA 10,896.32 -.58%
NASDAQ 2,302.69 -.62%
Russell 2000 703.62 -.68%
S&P Barra Growth 614.22 -.34%
S&P Barra Value 664.22 -.39%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 598.28 -.37%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 784.56 -1.14%
Morgan Stanley Technology 548.18 -.82%
Transports 4,090.95 -1.35%
Utilities 421.29 +1.31%
Put/Call .77 -1.28%
NYSE Arms 1.10 -14.71%
Volatility(VIX) 11.91 +6.06%
ISE Sentiment 188.00 -2.08%
US Dollar 89.24 +.13%
CRB 342.45 +1.67%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 66.72 +.62%
Unleaded Gasoline 183.40 +.59%
Natural Gas 9.29 +1.36%
Heating Oil 179.76 +.34%
Gold 555.40 +.20%
Base Metals 160.89 -.37%
Copper 211.10 unch.
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.32% -.68%

Leading Sectors
Energy +2.21%
Oil Service +1.58%
Utilities +1.31%

Lagging Sectors
Networking -1.42%
Semis -1.56%
Airlines -6.07%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on (COH), (WFC) and (CAL).
- Reiterated Underperform on (MU).
- Lowered (BUD) to Underperform.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- A California public school district agreed to cancel an intelligent design course and never offer it again to settle a lawsuit filed by parents who said their children were being taught religion.
- The ACLU and the Center for Constitutional Rights sued President Bush and the National Security Agency to stop them from conducting wiretaps on US citizens suspected of terrorism without court approval.
- Russia isn’t ready to support economic penalties on Iran for its nuclear program, Foreign Minister Lavrov said today, as his government weighed whether to send the issue to the UN Security Council.
- Crude oil in NY rose for a second day, nearing $67/bbl., on concern shipments may be disrupted from Iran, which accounts for almost 5% of world output.
- Yahoo!(YHOO) said fourth-quarter profit rose 83% on higher ad sales and a gain from the sale of a unit, missing analysts’ estimates.
- Intel Corp.(INTC) posted fourth-quarter profit and revenue that disappointed investors as sales of chips for desktop computers trailed the company’s forecasts.
- IBM(IBM) said profit rose 13% after the sale of its unprofitable pc unit.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly lower today on losses in my Semi longs, Retail longs and Energy-related shorts. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished lower, most sectors fell and volume was about average. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed into the close. Overall, today's market performance was mildly negative considering the fall in long-term rates, positive economic data and rise in oil. Bear Stearns said today to buy Apple Computer(AAPL), one of my longs, ahead of its quarterly report tomorrow. I don't usually add to longs ahead of earning's releases, however I still don't think it is too late for longer-term investors to begin building a long position in AAPL now into after-hours weakness related to (INTC) and (YHOO).

Stocks Lower Heading into Final Hour on Energy Price Rise, Tech Downgrades and Profit-taking

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower mid-day on losses in my Retail longs and Energy shorts. I took profits in my COP short and a trading long, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are falling and volume is average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly lower. Merrill Lynch put out a note this morning that said there are a "breathtaking" number of fund managers predicting the dollar will drop against the yen this year. I suspect just the opposite will occur as U.S. growth continues to outperform that of other developed nations, U.S. stocks rise further, the global mania for emerging market stocks wanes, the U.S. "twin deficits" come in better than estimates, inflation decelerates, energy prices continue to fall and foreign demand for U.S. assets remains high. I expect US stocks to trade mixed from current levels into the close as profit-taking and worries over Iran offsets lower long-term interest rates and short-covering.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- The SEC voted unanimously to propose new disclosure standards that would force companies to reveal, in “plain English,” more information about benefits and perks given to top executives.
- Crude oil rose above $65/bbl. in NY on fears that Iranian and Nigerian shipments may be disrupted as consumption grows.
- The US dollar rose against the euro and the yen as US manufacturing reports bolstered speculation the world’s largest economy is growing at a healthy rate.
- Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway(BRK/A) agreed to buy Business Wire, the world’s largest distributor of corporate press releases, as the European Union imposes new disclosure requirements.
- Boston Scientific(BSX) raised its bid for cardiac device maker Guidant(GDT) to $27 billion, topping the $24.2 billion offer that Guidant’s board accepted last week from Johnson & Johnson(JNJ).

Wall Street Journal:
- Cephalon(CEPH), Wyeth(WYE), Johnson & Johnson(JNJ) and other pharmaceutical companies have settled lawsuits over patent challenges from generic-drug companies, as a way of removing uncertainty and boosting their stock prospects.
- Rob Solomon, former vice president at Yahoo! Inc., has been named CEO at the travel search company SideStep Inc.
- Stephen King’s latest novel about an apocalyptic mayhem set off by cell phones is being marketed by his publisher, CBS Corp.’s(CBS) Scribner, with text messages to 100,000 phone subscribers.
- China’s steel industry is heading into a consolidation amid declining profit margins and increased pressure from government planners.
- Salesforce.com(CRM), which sells Internet-based customer-management software, said it has added to its system of offering online software to customers with partners including Adobe Systems(ADBE) and eBay’s(EBAY) Skype Technologies.

CNBC:
- Merrill Lynch(MER) may be looking to buy a medium-sized bank to get into commercial banking to sell small business loans.

NY Times:
- The FDA is close to reviewing weight-loss drugs developed by Sanofi-Aventis SA(SNY) and GlaxoSmithKline Plc(GSK).

USA Today:
- Texas Instruments(TXN), ChevronTexaco(CVX) and other US companies are starting to help children of employees prepare for college admission as part of the benefits they provide to retain valued workers.

RIA Novosti:
- Russia’s government will spend $5.8 billion buying and maintaining weapons and other military hardware this year, almost 50% more than last year, Defense Minister Ivanov said.

Manufacturing Healthy, Capacity Utilization Just Back to Average Levels

- The Empire Manufacturing Index for January fell to 20.1 versus estimates of 21.0 and a reading of 26.3 in December.
- Industrial Production for December rose .6% versus estimates of a .5% increase and a .8% rise in November.
- Capacity Utilization for December rose to 80.7% versus estimates of 80.5% and a reading of 80.3% in November.
BOTTOM LINE: Manufacturing growth in NY state slowed from the fastest pace in a year in January, Bloomberg reported. The optimism outlook component of the index rose to 47.6 from 44.1 the prior month. The employment component of the index increased to 11.3 from 5.0 in December. The prices paid component of the index fell to 46.6 from 46.7 the prior month. I continue to expect manufacturing to add to US growth over the intermediate-term as corporate spending accelerates and inventories are rebuilt.

US industrial production rose for a third straight month in December and factories ran at the fastest pace in more than five years, Bloomberg reported. During the bubble years, the US generated massive overcapacity. Capacity utilization is just now back to its long-term average of 80.7%. I do not expect capacity utilization to rise to an extent that would generate substantial inflationary pressures. Industrial production should remain relatively strong over the intermediate-term.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
IBD New America
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Monday, January 16, 2006

Tuesday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- PetroChina Co., the nation’s largest petroleum company, increased oil and natural gas production 5.5% last year after drilling new fields to meet higher demand in Asia’s fastest-growing market.
- Shipping rates will probably fall for a second straight year as the fleet of coal and iron-ore vessels grows faster than the world’s demand for commodities.
- Stocks worldwide may rise for a fourth straight year in 2006 because shares are still cheap given the outlook for economic growth and corporate profits, strategists at Goldman Sachs Group said. US stock returns including dividends will be 13% in 2006, Goldman said.
- The US dollar is gaining against the euro on speculation industrial production and manufacturing reports will add to evidence the world’s largest economy is expanding at a healthy pace.
- Oil is rising a little over a percent in NY after rebel attacks cut output in Nigeria and Western nations stepped up pressure on Iran to abandon its nuclear program.
- Gerald Ford, the oldest living former US president, has been hospitalized with pneumonia at Eisenhower Medical Center in Rancho Mirage, California.
- “Brokeback Mountain,” the love story of two gay cowboys, won four Golden Globe awards, including best drama and best director for Ang Lee.

Wall Street Journal:
- The FDA may change its drug-labeling rules and offer drugmakers a shield from some lawsuits.
- Royal Dutch Shell Plc will begin to explore central Arkansas for natural gas deposits, a sign that multinational oil companies are increasingly interested in US domestic deposits.
- General Motors(GM) and Ford Motor(F) will recover from their current troubles, though it might be “hard, difficult and will take time,” Renault SA CEO Ghosn said.
- Russia and China are backing the US and Europe on the need for Iran to suspend its nuclear program, but stopped short of asking the matter to be taken to the UN Security Council.
- Janus Capital Group(JNS) started the Janus Adviser Long/Short Fund that uses investment strategies generally employed by hedge funds.

NY Times:
- Business travelers are paying less to fly on the nation’s airlines compared to a year ago.
- Many Shiite Muslims in the island kingdom of Bahrain want more freedom and they’re looking to Iraq as a potential model.
- Maryland’s law, passed last week, that requires large companies, including Wal-Mart Stores, to devote 8% of payroll to employee healthcare, may be hard to replicate in other states.

USA Today:
- The number of US troops wounded in Iraq fell 26% in 2005 compared with the previous year, suggesting insurgent attacks have declined in the face of stronger local security and democratic elections.

Star-Ledger:
- New Jersey acting Governor Richard Codey signed a law yesterday banning smoking in bars, restaurants and most other public places in the state.

Denver Post:
- Denver’s murder rate in 2005 fell 34% to a three-year low.

Washington Post:
- Radical Islamic groups are seeking to unite all 1.2 billion Muslims by replacing national governments with caliphate, the theocratic institution that once ruled large parts of Africa, the Middle East and Europe.

Red Herring:
- Silicon Valley, home to 2.43 million, added jobs last year for the first time in half a decade, and the incomes of those working in the four-county northern California region rose for the second consecutive year, said a new study scheduled for release this week.

Financial Times:
- Cisco Systems(CSCO) plans to enter the consumer electronics industry.
- International Business Machines(IBM) has held talks to acquire a stake in Satyam Computer Services(SAY), India’s fourth-largest software services company.

BBC:
- British Prime Minister Tony Blair would make a “good” secretary general of the United Nations, citing former US President Bill Clinton.

Sunday Times:
- Owners of Burger King may sell shares of the second-biggest US hamburger chain in an IPO that values the company at $2.5 billion.

Iran Daily:
- Iran will continue its nuclear program even if the Islamic Republic is referred to the UN Security Council, citing Iranian President Ahmadinejad.

Spiegel:
- The German government expects the economy to grow 1.4% this year, less than the 1.8% that Economic Minister Glos had previously suggested.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on (PH) and (AAPL).

Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on (MSFT), (STN), (LVS) and (HD).

Night Trading
Asian indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.04%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.09%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
(ASO).50
(SCHW).14
(CBH).27
(CAL)-1.68
(FITB).63
(FISV).56
(FRX).61
(IBM)1.94
(INTC).43
(LLTC).35
(MDC)4.00
(NCC).67
(SOV).46
(TDS).29
(TER).19
(USB).62
(WFC)1.15
(YHOO).17

Upcoming Splits
(CWTR) 3-for-2
(LKQX) 2-for-1
(PZZA) 2-for-1
(TALX) 3-for-2

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Empire Manufacturing for January is estimates to fall to 21.0 versus a reading of 28.7 in December.

9:15 am EST
- Industrial Production for December is estimated to rise .5% versus a .7% increase in November.
- Capacity Utilization for December is estimated to rise to 80.5% versus 80.2% in November.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mixed as commodity producing companies in the region rise and exporters fall. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to fall modestly into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Click here for The Week Ahead by Reuters

There are some important economic reports and a few significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. - US Markets Closed
Tues. - Empire Manufacturing, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization
Wed. - Consumer Price Index, Net Foreign Security Purchases, NAHB Housing Market Index, Fed’s Beige Book
Thur. - Housing Starts, Building Permits, Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed.
Fri. - Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence

A few of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. - US Markets Closed
Tues. - AmSouth Bancorp(ASO), Charles Schwab(SCHW), Commerce Bancorp.(CBH), Fifth Third Bancorp(FITB), Forest Labs(FRX), Freeport-McMoRan(FCX), IBM Corp.(IBM), Intel Corp.(INTC), Linear Tech(LLTC), National City Corp.(NCC), Sovereign Bancorp(SOV), US Bancorp(USB), Wells Fargo(WFC), Yahoo!(YHOO)
Wed. - Advanced Micro Devices(AMD), Ameritrade Holdings(AMTD), AMR Corp.(AMR), Apple Computer(AAPL), Bank of NY(BK), CIT Group(CIT), eBay Inc.(EBAY), JPMorgan Chase(JPM), Kinder Morgan Energy(KMP), Lam Research(LRCX), Mellon Financial(MEL), QLogic Corp.(QLGC), Seagate Technology(STX), Southwest Airlines(LUV), State Street(STT), SunTrust Banks(STI), Washington Mutual(WM)
Thur. - Amdocs(DOX), Beazer Homes(BZH), Capital One Financial(COF), Comerica(CMA), DR Horton(DHI), F5 Networks(FFIV), Freescale Semi(FSL), Harley Davidson(HDI), International Game Technology(IGT), Merrill Lynch(MER), Microchip Tech(MCHP), Motorola Inc.(MOT), Pfizer Inc.(PFE), PNC Financial(PNC), Rambus Inc.(RMBS), Rowan Cos.(RDC), Scientific-Atlanta(SFA), UnitedHealth Group(UNH), Wachovia Corp.(WB), Xilinx(XLNX)
Fri. - Alltel Corp.(AT), Bebe Stores(BEBE), Citigroup(C), Fortune Brands(FO), General Electric(GE), Johnson Controls(JCI), Keycorp(KEY), MBNA Corp.(KRB), Progressive Corp.(PGR), Schlumberger(SLB)

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. - US Markets Closed
Tue. - Goldman Sachs Energy Conference
Wed. - Prudential Growth Conference, Goldman Sachs Energy Conference
Thur. - None of note
Fri. - None of note

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as declining energy prices, short-covering, less hawkish Fed commentary and positive economic data offsets worries over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, some disappointment with forward earnings guidance and profit-taking. My trading indicators are still giving bullish signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Sunday, January 15, 2006

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,287.61 +.17%*

Image hosted by Photobucket.com

Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: Overall, last week's market performance was modestly positive as the S&P 500 consolidating recent gains. The advance/decline line was about even, most sectors rose and volume was above average on the week. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher. However, the AAII % Bulls jumped to 58.96. I would become worried on sustained readings above 60.0% in this contrary indicator. The average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.15% which is only 94 basis points above all-time lows set in June 2003. Moreover, the benchmark 10-year T-note yield fell another 2 basis points on the week as economic data was mixed and measures of inflation decelerated further.

Small-caps outperformed on optimism over increased corporate spending and lower long-term interest rates. Unleaded Gas futures resumed their downtrend, notwithstanding rising worries over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and are 40% below September highs even as refinery utilization remains below normal as a result of the hurricanes. Natural gas supplies fell less than expected this week and are now 11.8% above the 5-year average for this time of year even as over 19% of daily Gulf of Mexico production remains shut-in. Natural gas prices have plunged around 45% in 4 weeks. Gold rose on the week, reaching a 24-year high, as the dollar declined and international diversification continued.

I still believe prices for many commodities are being driven by fear and record capital inflows into commodity funds, rather than fundamentals. I continue to expect global energy demand destruction, decelerating economic growth and a significant increase in supplies into 2006 to push oil prices substantially lower from current levels. The ECRI Weekly Leading Index made a new cycle high and is forecasting healthy US economic activity. Recent gains in the Homebuilders and Retailers are a big positive as the bears’ main arguments revolve around these two sectors. Consumer spending, while slowing, should remain healthy as long-term interest rates stay low, inflation decelerates, energy prices fall, the dollar remains stable, the job market remains healthy, consumer confidence improves and the stocks market rises. These large positives should more than offset a housing market that is slowing to more healthy sustainable levels.


*5-day % Change

Friday, January 13, 2006

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,287.61 +.17%
DJIA 10,959.87 unch.
NASDAQ 2,317.04 +.50%
Russell 2000 708.44 +1.29%
DJ Wilshire 5000 n/a
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,146.69 +1.16%
S&P Barra Growth 616.30 +.16%
S&P Barra Value 666.82 +.18%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 600.52 +.07%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 793.61 -1.80%
Morgan Stanley Technology 552.73 -.10%
Transports 4,147.10 -1.59%
Utilities 415.85 +.17%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 8,328 unch.
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 60.0 +14.0%
Put/Call .78 +20.0%
NYSE Arms 1.29 +50.0%
Volatility(VIX) 11.23 +2.09%
ISE Sentiment 172.00 +11.69%
AAII % Bulls 58.96 +100.89%
AAII % Bears 19.08 -52.56%
US Dollar 88.86 unch.
CRB 336.84 -.77%
ECRI Weekly Leading Index 136.50 +.66%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 63.92 -.59%
Unleaded Gasoline 173.11 -4.57%
Natural Gas 8.79 -8.81%
Heating Oil 171.50 -5.09%
Gold 556.90 +2.86%
Base Metals 161.87 +4.0%
Copper 211.25 +1.42%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.35 -.46%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.15% -.97%

Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +6.0%
Computer Hardware +4.82%
Retail +2.17%
Homebuilders +2.16%
Energy +1.94%

Lagging Sectors
Papers -1.47%
Oil Tankers -2.18%
Broadcasting -2.18%
HMOs -4.14%
Airlines -8.17%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers
One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day % Change

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour Ahead of Three-day Weekend

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower mid-day on losses in my Software longs, Medical longs and Energy shorts. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is modestly higher, sector performance is mixed and volume is average. Measures of investor anxiety are higher. The ECRI Weekly Leading Index rose to 136.50 this week from 135.60 the prior week. This is a new cycle high and up from 132.00 during the last week of May. This gauge of future economic activity is still forecasting healthy U.S. growth. I continue to believe economic growth is slowing from vigorous levels to average levels. I expect US stocks to trade mixed from current levels into the close as profit-taking and worries over Iran offsets lower long-term interest rates and short-covering.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Tyco International(TYC) says it’s splitting into three public companies to jumpstart a sluggish recovery from an accounting and larceny scandal.
- General Motors(GM) expects “improved” results this year and next as new products boost revenue and cost-cutting measures take hold.
- US Treasuries are rising after a government report showed producer prices excluding food and energy rose less than forecast.
- S&P reduced its rating on Verizon Communications’ debt and may lower five more phone companies as competition from the cable industry increases.
- President Bush urged the UN Security Council to deal with the diplomatic standoff over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, saying a nuclear-armed Iran is “unacceptable.”
- Boston Scientific(BSX) raised its offer for cardiac device maker Guidant(GDT) to $25.3 billion, topping Johnson & Johnson’s(JNJ) bid and promising to pay more for any delay in completing the purchase.

Wall Street Journal:
- American International Group(AIG) is likely to pay more than $1 billion to settle state and federal civil fraud charges.
- GlaxoSmithKline Plc(GSK) hopes to be allowed to sell its Xenical weight-loss drug in the US without prescription.
- US soldiers in Iraq are strengthening vehicles’ armor-plating and using electronic devices to prevent concealed explosives from detonating.
- AutoNation, the largest US car dealer, backed GM’s new price-cut strategy, even as other dealers expressed worries about profit margins.
- Citadel Investment Group LLC, a Chicago-based hedge fund, is among an increasing number of funds imposing penalties on investors that try to withdraw their money.
- Sony Pictures Entertainment and other Hollywood film producers are reconsidering giving top stars part of movie revenue, to help maintain profit as cinema attendance slides.
- Richard Barton, formerly the head of Expedia Inc., said his new business, Zillow.com, will in the next six months unveil a test version of a set of Internet tools to help people to buy and sell homes.
- The US and state governments should reduce their role in health care and encourage a free-market approach to provide more insurance options at lower cost.

Washington Post:
- The US government has sent almost 600 auditors and investigators to the Gulf Coast region to monitor $8.3 billion in contracts awarded to aid victims of last year’s hurricanes.

NY Times:
- St. Jude Medical(STJ) has benefited in the past year from Guidant’s(GDT) recent missteps in recalling faulty pacemakers and failing to warn doctors quickly about the problems.

LA Times:
- Dave Marash, a reporter for the “Nightline” news program on Walt Disney’s(DIS) ABC, will become a co-anchor for the Arab network Al Jazeera.

Another Measure of Inflation Tame, Retail Sales Healthy, Business Inventories Rise

- The Producer Price Index for December rose .9% versus estimates of a .4% increase and a .7% decline in November.
- The PPI Ex Food & Energy for December rose .1% versus estimates of a .2% gain and a .1% increase in November.
- Advance Retail Sales for December rose .7% versus estimates of a .9% increase and an upwardly revised .8% gain in November.
- Retail Sales Less Autos for December rose .2% versus estimates of a .4% increase and a .4% decline in November.
- Business Inventories for November rose .5% versus estimates of a .4% increase and a .4% rise in October.
BOTTOM LINE: Core US producer prices rose less than forecast in December, a sign of tame inflation as companies had little success in passing along higher energy costs, Bloomberg said. The core index gained 1.7% in 2005, less than the 2.3% increase in 2004 as global competition continues to restrict the ability of companies to raise prices. Prices of material used at the beginning of the production process, including timber and scrap steel, fell 2.3% in December after declining 1.2% the prior month. I continue to believe measures of inflation will decelerate again in 2006 as US growth slows to averages levels, Chinese growth decelerates, energy prices continue to fall, labor costs are held in check and the dollar remains firm.

US retail sale rose less than expected in December as consumers bought more cars and less of everything else, Bloomberg said. Vehicle sales rose to a five-month high of 17.2 million units. Retail sales for all of 2005 rose a strong 7.3% to $4.19 trillion, the most in US history. I continue to believe retail sales will remain healthy this year as interest rates remain historically low, the labor market remains healthy, consumer confidence improves, energy prices fall further and stock prices rise.

US business inventories rose for a fourth straight month in November, reflecting increases in stockpiles at auto dealers and retailers as companies prepared for the holiday shopping season, Bloomberg reported. The amount of goods on hand at the end of November increased to 1.26 months at the current sales pace, up from an all-time low in October. I continue to believe inventory rebuilding and healthy demand will add to economic growth as companies gain confidence in the durability of the current economic expansion.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
IBD New America
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Thursday, January 12, 2006

Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Thomas Suozzi, a former mayor of Glen Cover, NY, and the first Democrat in 40 years to be elected head of Long Island’s Nassau County, filed papers to challenge NY Attorney General Eliot Spitzer for the party’s gubernatorial nomination.
- Pfizer agreed to pay Sanofi-Aventis SA $1.3 billion to obtain worldwide marketing rights to the Exubera inhaled insulin treatment, ending their partnership on the medicine.
ABC News:
- FBI officials are investigating an increase in purchases of large batches of disposable mobile phones by Iraqis and Pakistanis in California and Texas to find a possible link to terror networks. Terrorists used such phones to explode bombs in the 2004 Madrid train attacks.

Shanghai Securities Journal:
- China has no plans to sell dollar assets, citing central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan.

South China Morning Post:
- North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il is in China’s southern city of Guangzhou and will visit Shenzhen on the border of Hong Kong today.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on (CSCO), (GOOG), (YHOO), (EBAY), (BSX), (FD) and (RE).
- Upgraded (STX) and (HPQ) to Outperform.
- Reiterated Underperform on (ZLC).

Business Week:
- Roy Disney’s investment company Shamrock Capital Advisors bought an 11% stake in IPass Inc.(IPAS).
- Outback Steakhouse(OSI) may rise about 50% within the next year because of an increase in assets from acquisitions of small, start-up units, citing Friedman Billings Ramsey’s Howard Penney.
- Perficient Inc.(PRFT) may be worth $12 a share in a year, Collins Gills of Canaccord Adams said.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to unch. on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.05%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated unch.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- None of note

Upcoming Splits
(NRPH) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Producer Price Index for December is estimated to rise .4% versus a .7% fall in November.
- The PPI Ex Food & Energy for December is estimated to rise .2% versus a .1% gain in November.
- Advance Retail Sales for December are estimated to rise .9% versus a .4% increase in November.
- Retail Sales Less Autos for December are estimated to rise .4% versus a .3% decline in November.

10:00 am EST
- Business Inventories for November are estimated to rise .4% versus a .3% increase in October.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity producing companies in the region. I expect US equities to open lower and to rally later in the day, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Close Near Session Lows on Profit-taking, Energy Stock Reversal and Iran Worries

Indices
S&P 500 1,286.06 -.63%
DJIA 10,962.36 -.73%
NASDAQ 2,316.69 -.63%
Russell 2000 706.79 -.62%
DJ Wilshire 5000 n/a
S&P Barra Growth 615.60 -.62%
S&P Barra Value 665.97 -.63%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 600.14 -.37%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 794.06 -1.56%
Morgan Stanley Technology 553.57 -.50%
Transports 4,148.38 -1.21%
Utilities 412.81 +.07%
Put/Call .72 +14.29%
NYSE Arms 1.25 +60.33%
Volatility(VIX) 11.20 +2.38%
ISE Sentiment 144.00 -25.0%
US Dollar 89.47 +.54%
CRB 334.71 -.30%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 63.90 -.06%
Unleaded Gasoline 171.85 -.84%
Natural Gas 8.98 +.50%
Heating Oil 171.45 +.19%
Gold 547.50 -.33%
Base Metals 158.96 +.24%
Copper 208.95 +.10%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.40% -1.06%

Leading Sectors
Disk Drives +.32%
Hospitals +.31%
Foods +.29%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Service -1.85%
Airlines -1.92%
Homebuilders -2.24%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- None of note

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The euro fell the most against the dollar in three weeks after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said there are risks to economic growth in Europe.
- Ted Koppel, former host of ABC’s “Nightline,” will begin writing for the NY Times as a contributing columnist this month and will join the NPR radio network as a senior news analyst in June.
- Federated Dept. Stores(FD) plans to sell the Lord & Taylor division it acquired in its $11 billion purchase of May Dept. Stores(MAY) as it focuses on the Macy’s chain.
- California regulators approved a $2.5 billion solar-power subsidy, the largest ever in the US, offering more business to solar-panel makers such as SunPower and Evergreen Solar(ESLR) that are already struggling to meet demand.
- The US reported an $11 billion budget surplus in December as tax receipts soared 12.1% to $241.9 billion, an all-time record.
- Toyota Motor(TM) said it expects a US sales increase this year of as much as 10%, doubling a forecast it made last week.
- International Business Machines(IBM) said the SEC escalated a probe into the company’s first-quarter earnings report.
- Natural gas fell below $9, plunging 44% in about a month, as US supplies are set to reach records.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly lower today on losses in my Internet longs, Semi longs, Medical Information longs and Biotech longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished lower, most sectors fell and volume was above-average. Measures of investor anxiety were higher into the close. Overall, today's market performance was negative considering the fall in long-term rates/natural gas, positive economic data and comments from Iran. The major averages and breadth finished near session lows, led by a sharp reversal in energy-related equities. However, breadth wasn't too bad and volume was only slightly above average. The 10-year T-note yield also finished near session lows, down 5 basis points. Today's action looked like healthy profit-taking to me. However, I would expect to see stocks trade mixed-to-lower in the near-term after an exceptional start to the year.

Stocks Lower Heading into Final Hour on Profit-taking and Iran Worries

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower mid-day on losses in my Internet longs, Software longs, Biotech longs and Semi longs. I took profits in some existing longs and added IWM and QQQQ shorts, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are lower and volume is above average. Measures of investor anxiety are higher. The average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.15% this week from 6.21% the prior week. This is the fifth consecutive weekly decline. Mortgage rates are now only 94 basis points away from record lows set in June 2003. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has fallen 22 basis points in about nine weeks. I continue to expect mortgage rates to remain relatively low by historic standards this year as U.S. growth slows to average levels, demand for U.S. assets increases, inflation readings decelerate and the dollar remains stable. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower from current levels into the close on profit-taking and worries over Iran.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Tyco International’s(TYC) board will likely vote to split into three companies today, dismantling the conglomerate built by jailed former CEO Kozlowski.
- Boston Scientific(BSX) may sweeten its buyout offer for Guidant(GDT) after Johnson & Johnson added more cash to its bid for the troubled cardiac-device maker.
- Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Iran’s decision to resume research on the nuclear fuel cycle shows “dangerous defiance of the international community.”
- President Bush said the federal government has “a major role to play” in rebuilding the Gulf Coast after Hurricane Katrina, and pledged to help rebuild New Orleans levees damaged by the storm.
- Natural gas prices are falling below $9, down 44% in almost a month, after the EIA reported inventories are approaching record levels for this time of the year.

Wall Street Journal:
- Viisage Technology(VISGD), a maker of identification software, plans to buy technology company Identix(IDNX) in a deal valued at about $770 million in stock.
- The FDA may release new guidelines for the early stages of drug development as early as today.
- A court may order the shutdown next month of Research In Motion’s(RIMM) BlackBerry e-mail, prompting companies that use the device to consider alternative wireless e-mail services.
- Univ. of Texas scientists are firing noise into the flue ducts of coal-fired power plants, to try to bond smaller soot particles to larger ones and make cleaning easier.
- Starbucks(SBUX) is diversifying into movies and DVDs, citing Chairman Schultz.
- Vonage Holdings and Skype Technologies SA may gain more customers as a new line of Internet calling phones goes on sale.

AP:
- Russia, China, the US and the EU will send diplomats to London next week for consultations about Iran’s nuclear plans.

NY Times:
- Goldman Sachs(GS) pulled out of an IPO by Thomas Weisel Partners, an investment bank, leaving Keefe, Bruyette & Woods as the sole underwriter.
- Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia(MSO) plans to begin publishing a magazine this year geared toward young women to be called Blueprint.
- Visa International and MasterCard International have been in talks since last year about setting credit-card data security standards that may be implemented by the middle of this year.

NY Post:
- The SEC has begun an informal investigation into allegations of inflated payments from vendors to Home Depot(HD).

Chicago Tribune:
- Apple Computer(AAPL) made four federal trademark filings last week that could be a sign the company is planning to create its own mobile phone business.

NY Daily News:
- Cingular Wireless and Verizon Wireless(VZ) are part of a group of US wireless service providers planning to bid on a contract to build and operate a network in 277 NYC subway stations.

AFP:
- At least 354 people died during a stampede at the Hajh pilgrimage in Mecca, citing the Saudi Arabian health minister.

LA Times:
- Demand for California wines dropped as consumers turned to vintages from Italy and Australia and grew frustrated with the high price charged by restaurants.

Trade Deficit Improves, Measure of Inflation Falls Again, Labor Market Healthy

- The Trade Deficit for November shrank to -$64.2 billion versus estimates of -$66.1 billion and -$68.1 billion in October.
- The Import Price Index for December fell .2% versus estimates of a .2% increase and a 1.8% decline in November.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week rose to 309K versus estimates of 315K and 292K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims rose to 2702K versus estimates of 2681K and 2690K prior.
BOTTOM LINE: The US trade deficit narrowed in November, as the cost of imported oil dropped and exports rose to an all-time high on increased shipments of goods including Boeing(BA) jets, Bloomberg reported. The deficit with China fell for the first time in 8 months, declining 9.9%. I expect the trade deficit to remain relatively high, only improving modestly, as US growth continues to outpace that of other developed nations and commodity prices fall.

Prices of goods imported into the US unexpectedly fell for a second month in December, the first back-to-back decrease since 2004 and a sign of tame inflation, Bloomberg said. The drop in import prices was led by cheaper petroleum, computers and steel. I continue to believe measures of inflation will decelerate throughout most the year, helping to keep long-term interest rates low by historic standards.

The number of Americans filing first-time claims for jobless benefits rose less than forecast last week, suggesting strength in the labor market, Bloomberg said. Companies have now added over 4 million employees to payrolls over the last two years. The four-week moving average dropped to 311,500 from 317,000. The unemployment rate for those eligible for benefits, which tracks the US unemployment rate, held steady at 2.1%. I continue to believe the labor market will remain healthy over the intermediate-term without generating substantial unit labor cost increases, which account for two-thirds of inflation.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
IBD New America
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Wednesday, January 11, 2006

Thursday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Shares of Quanta Display, a unit of the world’s biggest notebook computer maker, are rising as much as 3% after a news report said Sharp Corp. may buy as many as 4 million flat-panel displays from the Taiwanese company this year.
- The PGA Tour agreed to six-year television contracts with CBS and NBC and a 15-year deal with cable’s Golf Channel.
- Shares of Sharp Corp., the world’s biggest liquid-crystal display television maker, are having their biggest gain in more than four years after the company said sales next fiscal year will rise to a record $26 billion on demand for its flat-panels and solar cells.

Financial Times:
- Borders Group(BGP) may be acquired by one or more private-equity firms for more than $25 a share, or almost $2 billion, and taken private.

Fortune:
- Plans to reorganize the leadership of Dow Jones(DJ), publisher of the Wall Street Journal, began in April 2005.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on (MYL), (CSCO), (QCOM) and (RIMM).

Night Trading
Asian Indices are unch. to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.08%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.08%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
(CBSH).82
(SRR)-.02
(MTG)1.52
(MI).78

Upcoming Splits
(HITK) 3-for-2
(NRPH) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Trade Deficit for November is estimated to shrink to -$66.1 billion versus -$68.9 in October.
- The Import Price Index for December is estimated to rise .2% versus a 1.7% decline in November.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 315K versus 291K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 2681K versus 2718K prior.

2:00 pm EST
- The Monthly Budget for December is estimated at a $7.0 billion surplus versus a -$3.4 billion deficit in November.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, led by technology companies in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally later in the day, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Near Session Highs Despite Headwinds

Indices
S&P 500 1,294.18 +.35%
DJIA 11,043.44 +.29
NASDAQ 2,331.36 +.48%
Russell 2000 711.19 +.03%
DJ Wilshire 5000 n/a
S&P Barra Growth 619.45 +.38%
S&P Barra Value 670.22 +.31%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 602.36 -.02%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 806.64 -.21%
Morgan Stanley Technology 556.36 +.68%
Transports 4,199.29 -.46%
Utilities 412.51 -.31%
Put/Call .63 +5.0%
NYSE Arms .78 -32.86%
Volatility(VIX) 10.94 +.74%
ISE Sentiment 192.00 +20.0%
US Dollar 88.99 -.38%
CRB 335.71 -.22%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 64.05 +.17%
Unleaded Gasoline 173.78 +.27%
Natural Gas 9.25 +.18%
Heating Oil 173.25 +.31%
Gold 548.70 -.25%
Base Metals 158.57 +.32%
Copper 209.65 +.07%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.45% +.58%

Leading Sectors
Computer Hardware +1.85%
Semis +1.65%
Gaming +1.21%

Lagging Sectors
Utilities -.31%
HMOs -.59%
Airlines -3.77%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Downgraded (BUD) to Underperform.
- Rated (VIA/B) Outperform.
- Rated (CBS) Underperform.
- Reiterated Outperform on (DD) and (ALEX).

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Gap Inc.(GPS) will increase last-minute orders and buy more merchandise in North America to respond faster to fashion trends after sales tumbled last year.
- Best Buy(BBY) promoted Brian Dunn to president, replacing Allen Lenzmeier, who will stay on as vice chairman.
- Tribune Co.(TRB) will pull most stock-price listings from its flagship Chicago Tribune newspaper because more readers are using the Internet to track stocks.
- Howard Stern, whose talk show debuted on Sirius Satellite Radio(SIRI) this week, and his agent registerd to sell as much as $225 million in the company’s stock.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly higher today on gains in my Computer longs, Semi longs, Software longs and Retail longs. I did not trade today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was modestly positive today as the advance/decline line finished almost unchanged, sector performance was mostly positive and volume was heavy. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Overall, today's market performance was positive. Considering the rise in oil intraday, another bounce in long rates, more rumblings about Iran and recent gains, today's rise was even more impressive. The bond market's reaction to tomorrow's likely higher-than-expected import price index will probably dictate short-term trading in stocks.

Stocks Modestly Higher Heading into Final Hour, Led by Tech and Financials

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day on gains in my Computer longs, Software longs, Retail longs and Semi longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is modestly negative as the advance/decline line is slightly lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is heavy. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly lower. Sirius Satellite (SIRI) is breaking down through its 200-day moving average on almost double its normal volume. I would not touch this stock on the long side as I believe they "top-ticked" Howard Stern. I think his pay package will weigh on the shares for years, likely leading to the company's demise as a serious threat to XM Satellite (XMSR). I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher from current levels into the close on strength in the technology sector, a late-day reversal in energy prices and short-covering.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- US mortgage applications rose for the first time in five weeks as filings for home purchases rebounded, according to a private group’s survey.
- BP Plc, Europe’s largest oil company, said a decline in oil and gas production worsened in the fourth quarter, with damage from hurricanes costing more than $900 million in profit at its Texas City refinery.
- Wall Street firms will pay their NYC workers a record $21.5 billion in bonuses for 2005 after profits at companies including Goldman Sachs(GS) and Lehman Brothers(LEH) reached an all-time higher, state Comptroller Alan Hevesi said.

Wall Street Journal:
- Currency hedge funds posted their lowest returns in at least three years in 2005 because of the strong rally in the US dollar, prompting some to prepare for an exodus of short-term investors from the funds.
- Coca-Cola(KO) is having to compete in the US with imports of its own brand from Mexico, which are favored by Hispanic immigrants.
- Office rents rose worldwide for the first time in five years in the second half of 2005, as vacancies fell in 10 of the biggest markets, citing data by CB Richard Ellis.
- US state, non-profit and company programs to encourage people to save money have begun to produce an accumulation of assets among poor and lower-income Americans.
- China’s TCL Corp., the world’s biggest maker of TV sets, has teamed up with Intel(INTC) to develop a personal computer that resembles and functions like a flat-panel television.

NY Times:
- The FDA cleared 20 drugs last year, down from 36 in 2004, the second such drop in the past 10 years.
- The first comprehensive New Orleans rebuilding proposal calls for a complete revamp of the city’s school system, eliminates a 76-mile shipping channel that helped to cause flooding after Hurricane Katrina and adds a new jazz district downtown.
- General Electric’s(GE) NBC television network has sold few advertising spots for its “The Book of Daniel,” a series criticized as anti-Christian by the conservative American Family Association.
- Sony BMG Music Entertainment and Logo channel founder Matt Farber agreed to create a record label for gay and lesbian music artists.
- Johnson & Johnson(JNJ) made a last-ditch effort to acquire Guidant Corp.(GDT) to prevent the company from accepting a $25 billion bid from Boston Scientific(BSX).
- Developers are poised to break ground on a “big-box” shopping center in East Harlem after Home Depot(HD) signed a long-term lease and Costco Wholesale(COST) prepared to do the same.

Reuters:
- US Transportation Secretary Mineta suggested that Delta Air and Northwest Air may emerge from bankruptcy a merged carrier.

Distillate Supplies Continue to Soar

- The EIA announced a 2,887,000 barrel crude drawdown versus estimates of a 550,000 fall. Gasoline inventories rose 4,519,000 barrels versus estimates of a 1,725,000 build. Distillate supplies rose 4,862,000 barrels versus estimates of a 2,125,000 increase. Refinery utilization fell .06% versus estimates of unchanged.

BOTTOM LINE: The energy inventory numbers are very bearish for the energy complex considering a distillate shortage had been anticipated earlier in the year, however fear over Iran and new year inflows may temporarily cushion an otherwise more serious decline in oil.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
IBD New America
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Wednesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- A US campaign to rid the United Nations of corruption and inefficiencies has stalled, raising the prospect that Washington lawmakers will exact a financial penalty on the world body.

Wall Street Journal:
- The European Union says there is increasing evidence of illegal pricing among Chinese and Vietnamese shoemakers, citing EU officials it didn’t identify.

NY Times:
- World Cup champion Bode Miller might be thrown off the US ski team if he doesn’t apologize for comments about drinking alcohol before racing.

Congressional Quarterly:
- The Senate may vote Jan. 31 on Ben Bernanke’s nomination to succeed Alan Greenspan as head of the Federal Reserve, the last day of the departing chairman’s tenure.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Underperform on (HRB).

Night Trading
Asian Indices are unch. to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.09%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.09%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
(AEIS).06
(MTB)1.75

Upcoming Splits
(HITK) 3-for-2

Economic Releases
- None of note

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, led by semiconductor companies in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly higher and to build on gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Tuesday, January 10, 2006

Stocks Finish Mixed After Late-day Rebound

Indices
S&P 500 1,289.69 -.04%
DJIA 11,011.58 unch.
NASDAQ 2,320.32 +.07%
Russell 2000 710.99 +.67%
DJ Wilshire 5000 n/a
S&P Barra Growth 617.09 -.07%
S&P Barra Value 668.13 unch.
Morgan Stanley Consumer 602.50 -.39%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 808.31 -.75%
Morgan Stanley Technology 552.62 -.09%
Transports 4,218.69 -.46%
Utilities 413.80 +.14%
Put/Call .60 -11.76%
NYSE Arms 1.16 +7.73%
Volatility(VIX) 10.86 -2.43%
ISE Sentiment 160.00 -15.79%
US Dollar 89.33 +.09%
CRB 336.45 -.26%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 63.39 +.03%
Unleaded Gasoline 173.70 -.01%
Natural Gas 9.33 unch.
Heating Oil 173.79 unch.
Gold 543.90 -.33%
Base Metals 158.06 +.29%
Copper 210.50 -.09%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.42% +1.35%

Leading Sectors
Oil Service +2.10%
Disk Drives +1.89%
Computer Hardware +1.33%

Lagging Sectors
Airlines -1.32%
Broadcasting -1.88%
Hospitals -2.55%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on (ALL), (DNA), (HD) and (CRL).

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Biogen Idex(BIIB) said its Tysabri multiple sclerosis medicine, suspended in 2005 after being linked to an often fatal nervous system disease, may return to the market this year.
- Genentech(DNA) said quarterly profit jumped 64% on higher cancer-drug sales.

CNBC:
- Gannett Co.(GCI) made a bid for Knight Ridder(KRI) and then withdrew it.

Chronicle of Higher Education:
- A Florida International University professor and his wife were accused in a US government indictment of spying for Cuba.

Hollywood Reporter:
- Walt Disney’s(DIS) ABC television is charging a record $2.5 million on average for each 30-second advertisement during Super Bowl XL.

Sun Herald:
- Harrah’s Entertainment(HET) will spend more than $1 billion to build two casinos in Biloxi, Mississippi, citing Mayor AJ Holloway.

Seoul Economic Daily:
- Japan isn’t considering diversifying its foreign exchange reserves.

Handelsblatt:
- BMW AG may expand further at its plant in Spartanburg, South Carolina, citing CEO Panke.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Computer longs, Semi longs, Medical longs and Retail longs. I did not trade today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was modestly positive today as the advance/decline line finished higher, sector performance was mixed and volume was above average. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed into the close. Overall, today’s action was bullish considering long-term rates bounced, oil held steady, fears over Iran’s nuclear program rose and the DJIA closed above 11,000 again after a morning decline of 60 points. Ituran Location (ITRN), one of my recent small long additions, broke to a new high today on 4x average volume. This Israeli stock's performance is even more impressive considering recent Middle Eastern news events. I expect the stock to trade in the low $20s in a fairly short period of time as this recent IPO gets discovered.

Stocks Modestly Lower Into Final Hour as Long-term Rates Bounce and Iran Worries Increase

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day on gains in my Computer longs, Software longs, Retail longs and Medical longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is modestly positive as the advance/decline line is slightly higher, sector performance is mixed and volume is around average. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. The S&P 500, already up 3.3%, is outperforming many foreign markets that posted stellar gains last year. With the Nasdaq up 5% for the year and high-profile consumer tech companies such as Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) roaring, I would expect to see increasing interest in U.S. stocks as the mania for international equities and commodities wanes. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher from current levels into the close on strength in the technology sector and short-covering.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- One of the al-Qaeda cells arrested early today in Spain may have been planning an attack in Europe, Spanish Interior Minister Jose Antonio Alonso said.
- Whole Foods Market(WFMI) made the nation’s largest ever corporate purchase of renewable energy credits to promote use of non-polluting electricity sources.
- GM(GM) said it will cut the prices on about 80% of its cars and trucks.
- Alberto-Culver(ACV) will spin-off its chain of more than 3,200 beauty-supply stores and sell it to Regis Corp.(RGS) in a $2.6 billion transaction.
- Apple Computer’s(AAPL) first quarter revenue reached $5.7 billion, more than the company expected, as iPod sales tripled and Macintosh computer purchases topped 1 million units for the fifth straight period.
- The Bush administration warned Iran that its decision to resume research on uranium reprocessing may lead to action against the country at the UN Security Council.

Wall Street Journal:
- Proposed changes in executive-pay disclosure regulations by the SEC would lower the point at which companies need to disclose perquisites.
- DaimlerChrysler’s(DCX) Chrysler unit plans to reproduce the Dodge Challenger as part of a bid to attract buyers with new versions of favorite old cars.
- Ford Motor(F) and General Motors(GM) have begun marketing so-called flex-fuel vehicles that run on a mix of ethanol and gasoline.
- Growth of public and private US health-care expenditures rose 7.9% in 2004, the smallest increase since 2000.
- IBM(IBM), the top US patent holder for the past 13 years, will lead a group seeking to raise the quality of US patents by weeding out duplicate items.
- Toyota Motor(TM) may install a switch in its gasoline and electric-powered hybrid cars enabling drivers to select “green” or “power,” thus improving fuel-efficiency.

Deal.com:
- The US Dept. of Justice may sue to block Whirlpool’s planned $1.4 billion acquisition of Maytag.

NY Times:
- Many US companies are developing products to help customers with credit cards to reduce time spent paying highway tolls.
- Apple Computer(AAPL) plans to begin offering today a limited number of “Saturday Night Live” skits for download from its iTunes store for $1.99 each.
- News Corp.(NWS) Chairman Murdoch said his plan to make the Internet portal MySpace.com into a competitor for Yahoo!(YHOO) is aimed at increasing the time users spend on the site and at boosting advertising.

AP:
- New Jersey legislators halted executions until a 13-member commission evaluates the costs and fairness of the death penalty.

AFP:
- Iran said today it removed seals on its nuclear research centers to prepare for the resumption of work on the nuclear fuel cycle.

Reuters:
- China is unlikely to reduce the US dollar holdings its foreign-exchange reserves to increase the proportion of other assets, citing Tang Xu, head of the research bureau under the central bank.

Xinhua:
- China’s steel output rose to 348 million metric tons last year.

Il Sole/24:
- De Agostini SpA, an Italian publishing and insurance company, and its partners are seeking to buy Gtech Holdings(GTK), the world’s biggest seller of computerized lottery systems.

Wholesale Inventories Rise Less Than Estimates

- Wholesale Inventories for November rose .4% versus estimates of a .5% increase and a .2% gain in October.
BOTTOM LINE: Inventories at US wholesalers rose .4% in November as companies accelerated their restocking efforts after hurricane-related supply disruptions, Bloomberg reported. Sales feel .7% due mainly to a decline in the value of petroleum purchases. The inventory-to-sales ratio increased to 1.15 months from 1.14 the month before. I continue to believe inventory rebuilding will add to US growth over the intermediate-term on increasing business confidence and stable demand.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
IBD New America
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Top-ranked golfer Tiger Woods earned almost $87 million last year and should become the sport’s first billionaire by 2010, according to a study by Golf Digest.
- An improvised bomb was found in a Starbucks(SBUX) coffee shop in San Francisco. The bomb was safely detonated today by city police.
- Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. became the first Chinese automaker to display vehicles at the Detroit auto show, part of an effort to drum up publicity for its plan to sell a $10,000 car in the US.
- South Korean scientist Hwang Woo Suk faked both his first and second papers on human stem-cell research, dashing hopes that his work is a breakthrough in treatments for diabetes and Parkinson’s disease.

Financial Times:
- Kirk Kerkorian adviser Jerry York will urge (GM) to reduce its dividend, citing people familiar with the move.

Yonhap News:
- North Korean leader Kim Jong Il is visiting China.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on (TXN), (IDIX), (TRI) and (BSX).
- Reiterated Underperform on (ECL) and (PETM).

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.25%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.28%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
(DNA).34
(SVU).50
(USM).38
(OXM).61

Upcoming Splits
(CERN) 2-for-1

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- Wholesale Inventories for November are estimated to rise .5% versus a .2% increase in October,

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower on profit-taking after recent gains. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rally modestly into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.