Friday, January 25, 2008

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- The risk of European companies defaulting headed for the biggest weekly decline in almost two months amid speculation bond insurer Ambac Financial Group(ABK) will be bought by billionaire Wilbur Ross.
- Biofuels made from biomass and waster are “very promising,” because their feedstock doesn’t compete with food crops for agricultural land, according to a fund manager at ABN Amro Asset Management.
- The bipartisan agreement on an economic stimulus package reached by House leaders and President Bush was immediately undermined by senators intent on ensuring that their ideas get a hearing before any bill becomes law.
- Merrill Lynch(MER) is “very well positioned” to grow in 2008, CEO Thain said.
- US homebuilder shares are poised for their biggest weekly gain since 1995, as investors and analysts say the market for new homes may have hit bottom.

- The SEC wants to wrap its sweeping probe into whether companies improperly backdated stock options by the end of this year, the agency’s enforcement chief said.

Wall Street Journal:
- Lobbyists Smoothed the Way For a Spate of Foreign Deals. Two yeas ago, the US Congress pressured the Arab emirate of Dubai to back out of a deal to manage US ports. Today, governments in the Persian Gulf, China and Singapore have snapped up $37 billion of stakes in Wall Street, the bedrock of the US financial system.

- The Tax Threat to Prosperity.
- The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation plan to donate $306 million to six farming organizations to boost agricultural productivity in developing countries.

CNBC:
- Nestle SA, the world’s largest food company, expects less commodity cost pressure this year than in 2007, Chairman Peter Brabeck-Letmathe said.

USA Today:
- President Bush plans to propose doubling the funding to combat HIV/AIDS overseas in his last State of the Union address next week.

CNNMoney.com:
- Treasuries advance amid hedge fund rumors.

Telegraph:
- Bernanke calms fears of a credit bloodbath.

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:
- Cisco Systems(CSCO) expects “ardent growth” of video data on the World Wide Web to boost investment in Internet infrastructure, fueling the company’s long-term growth, citing Europe’s Cisco’s Europe head, Chris Dedicoat. The number of video streams broadcast on the Web amounted to 250 million in 2007, exceeding a forecast of as many as 70 million broadcasts, Dedicoat said.

globeandmail:
- Iraq expects to increase oil production this year to 3.7 million barrels per day and hopes to sign contracts to boost the output from oil fields that aren’t production to capacity, Iraq’s oil minister said. “We have increased our production by 400,000 barrels a day over the last three months,” he said. “This has been a very big increase…from 1.9 million barrels a day to 3.3 million. The Iraqi minister said the recent rise in oil prices was not a result of a shortage of crude oil. “On the contrary, there is as much crude oil on the market as people want,” he said. “It has been gambling by speculators, just betting on the prices really, disregarding the fundamentals of the oil markets.”

AAII % Bears 59.0, Still Highest Since October 18, 1990 After Iraq’s Invasion of Kuwait and During Peak of Recession

* Notwithstanding historical individual investor pessimism, corporate insiders continue to buy their own stocks.

The AAII percentage of bulls rose to 25.1% this week from 24.3% the prior week. This reading is still at a very depressed level. The AAII percentage of bears rose to 59.0% this week from 54.4% the prior week. This reading is still at an extraordinarily elevated level. The last time the AAII % Bears was this high was October 18, 1990 after Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait and before Operation Desert Storm began on January 17, 1991. The peak of the 1990-1991 recession also occurred during 4Q 1990 as GDP fell 3.0%. The S&P 500 rose 65% over the next three years after this peak in bearishness. Moreover, the 10-week moving average of the percentage of bears is currently at 50.9%, also an extraordinarily elevated level. It has only been higher one other period in its history, which was September 1990-December 1990. Moreover, the 10-week moving average of the percentage of bears peaked at 43.0% right near the major bear market low during 2002. It is astonishing that the 10-week moving average of the % bears is currently 7.9 percentage points greater than at any time during the bubble bursting meltdown of 2000-2003, which was arguably the worst stock market decline since the Great Depression.

Furthermore, the 50-week moving average of the percentage of bears is currently 40.7%, also an extraordinarily elevated level seen during only one other period since tracking began in the 80s. That period was December 1990-April 1991, right near another major stock market bottom. The extreme reading of the 50-week moving average of the percentage of bears during that period peaked at 41.6% on Jan. 31, 1991. The current reading of 40.7% is above the peak in the % bears during the 2000-2003 bear market, which was 38.1% on April 10, 2003. I find this even more astonishing, notwithstanding the recent pullback, given that the S&P 500 is currently 86.3% higher from the October 2002 major bear market lows and 13.0% off its recent record high.

Individual investor pessimism towards US stocks remains deep-seated and historical in nature, which bodes very well for further outsized gains over the intermediate-term. This is just more evidence of the current “US negativity bubble.” It is also noteworthy that as investor pessimism grows ever thicker as short interest soars to new record highs, corporate insiders continue to display downright giddy behavior with their recent stock activity during this pullback. The retail sector saw substantial insider buying over the last six weeks, notwithstanding the current extreme investor pessimism towards the prospects for consumer spending. The Morgan Stanley Retail Index is up 14.0% over the last ten days. During the 2000 economic downturn after the bursting of the 90s technology stock bubble, insiders were bailing in droves. I still expect US stocks to rise sharply later this year as the undying belief in an imminent recession begins to fade and the uncertainty currently surrounding the financial sector continues to lift substantially.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Large-cap Value (-.01%)

Sector Underperformers:

Airlines (-2.92%), Retail (-2.28%) and Utilities (-1.61%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

TPX, CYN, TGI, ING, DV, SYNA, DROOY, VSEA, IBKR, NTLS and AEG

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Small-cap Growth (+.78%)

Sector Outperformers:

Alternative Energy (+2.35%), Oil Service (+2.14%) and Homebuilders (+2.09%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

TDK, FDG, GBX, ROL, PKI, ITF, KWR, NSH, SCSC, VPRT, BLOG, ABFS, SPWR, JRCC, JRJC, VARI, FRME, RAIL, ROCM, ENOC, ODFL, BRCM, MCHP, EZPW, EPAY, MSCC, TASR, AMGN, WG, ALY, WNR, NTG, SNP, RTP, PCU, PTR, AXS, ABK and PETS

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot Commentary
Market Performance Summary
Style Performance
Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories

IBD Breaking News

Movers & Shakers

Upgrades/Downgrades

In Play

NYSE Unusual Volume

NASDAQ Unusual Volume

Hot Spots

Option Dragon

NASDAQ 100 Heatmap

DJIA Quick Charts

Chart Toppers

Intraday Chart/Quote

Dow Jones Hedge Fund Indexes

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Ambac Financial Group(ABK) rose in extended NY trading on speculation billionaire Wilbur Ross may buy the company.
- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the US housing slump, which fueled fears of a possible recession, may soon be over.
- Buffett, Flowers Purchases May Mean Bottom Is Near for Insurers.
- Wal-Mart Stores(WMT) CEO Scott discussed with automakers the possibility of selling gasoline-electric hybrid cars and plug-in automobiles at the retailer’s stores.
- Microsoft Corp.(MSFT), the world’s largest software maker, posted a second-quarter profit that surpassed analysts’ estimates and raised forecasts for the year after selling more Xbox 360 games and Windows programs.
- Jane Snorek, who helps manage more than $70 billion in assets at First American Funds, recommends Microsoft(MSFT), Apple(AAPL). (video)
- Federal Reserve policy makers didn’t know about a $7.2 billion trading loss at Societe Generale SA prior to their Jan. 21 decision to reduce interest rates, said a Fed official.

- South Korea’s economy expanded a faster than expected 1.5% in the fourth quarter, stoked by the biggest increase in exports in four years and a pickup in business investment.
- Renesas Technology Corp., the world’s largest privately held chipmaker, plans to boost sales of semiconductors used to control power flow and convert sound into data, helped by demand from carmakers. Sales of so-called discrete and analog chips will probably rise 70% to $1.6 billion in the 12 months ending March 2011.
- The yen headed for a weekly decline against all of the world’s 16 most-active currencies after global stocks gained, encouraging investors to add to holdings of higher-yielding assets funded in Japan.
- IndyMac Bancorp. Inc.(IMB), the second-biggest US mortgage company, has a “good shot” at profitability this year, CEO Perry said. The shares soared 25% in after-hours trading.
- Broadcom(BRCM) reported net revenue for the fourth quarter rose 11.2% from year ago levels. The shares surged 13.3% in after-hours trading.
- Microchip Tech(MCHP) reported net sales rose .6% over the year ago quarter. The shares jumped 6.4% in extended trading.
- ScanSource(SCSC) said second quarter sales rose 17%, led by “record results in our North American and International POS/Bar code units.” The shares rocketed 27% higher in after-hours trading.

- LG Electronics, Asia’s second-largest mobile-phone maker, rose for a third day in Seoul trading after Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group(GS) raised their price estimates, citing the earnings outlook for 2008.
- Asian stocks advanced, led by technology companies and miners, after US lawmakers agreed on a plan to boost spending and South Korea’s economy grew faster than economists had expected.

Wall Street Journal:
- Washington Sets $150 Billion Plan To Jolt Economy. Package Includes Boost For Big Mortgages, Rebates for Taxpayers.
- Leading Republican presidential contenders agreed in a campaign debate Thursday night that a newly minted agreement on an economic stimulus package marks a good start, but does not do enough to cut taxes.

MarketWatch.com:
- Thousands of dollars may be heading your way. A family of five could collect as much as $2,100 thanks to stimulus package.
- Societe Generale’s letter to customers, investors.

CNBC:
- Highest Yielding Stocks On The Dow.
- Jobs Report Signals Stronger Economy.

NY Times:
- The FDA intends to post inspectors to embassies and consulates in the developing world in hopes of improving the quality of imported food and medicines.

BusinessWeek.com:
- S&P’s latest screen finds five names with eye-popping return on equity – and strong buy ratings from its analysts.
- Google’s(GOOG) Big Mobile Move in Japan.

CNNMoney.com:
- Stop whining about sovereign wealth funds.

Forbes.com:
- The 100 top tech deal makers.
- The Golden Google(GOOG) Touch.

MSNBC.com:
- This week’s surprise rate cut by the Federal Reserve not only held Wall Street and investors in thrall, it’s also kicked into high gear a rush by homeowners across the country to refinance their mortgages at today’s lower rates. In general, a mortgage is deemed "refinanceable" if it is 0.40 percentage point above current average mortgage rates. And the recent drops in mortgage rates have made up to 7 million mortgages, or more than 70 percent of U.S. mortgages, eligible for refinancing, according to Tony Crescenzi, a fixed-income analyst at Miller Tabak.

USA Today.com:
- A shortage of long-haul drivers is spurring trucking companies across the USA to try to recast trucking’s nomadic image and recruit more women, minorities, retired military veterans and those who want a second career.
- Researchers at the Venter Institute in Rockville, Md., have completed phase two of a three-part plan to create synthetic life.
- Rival predicts Delta will likely merge.

Reuters:
- Battered tech darlings look cheap.
- Romney questions McCain’s wisdom on US economy.


Financial Times:
- Private equity firms that are considering setting up their own credit insurers have been studying the experience of competitor Warburg Pincus, which invested $1 billion in troubled MBIA(MBI) late last year.

TimesOnline:
- Did rogue trader set off world market panic?

China Daily:
- Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China’s largest bank, is prepared to acquire more foreign banks, possibly this year. ICBC will continue its global hunt for new acquisitions in the coming years, with an emphasis on emerging markets. US financial institutions may also be on the ICBC’s shopping list.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (PTV), target $35.
- Maintained Buy on (TER), target $17.
- Reiterated Buy on (MSFT), target $41.
- Reiterated Buy on (MHP), target $59.

CSFB:
- Maintained Outperform on NUE, target $75.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are +1.0% to +3.5% on average.
S&P 500 futures +.24%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.79%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories

Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (CAT)/1.50
- (FO)/1.43
- (HOG)/.82
- (HON).91
- (IDXX)/.40
- (WFT)/.96
- (GWW)/1.27

Upcoming Splits
- (BTJ) 3-for-2

Economic Releases
- None of note

Other Potential Market Movers
- None of note

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply higher, boosted by technology and mining stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.