Friday, February 22, 2008

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,353.11 +.31%
DJIA 12,381.02 +.03%
NASDAQ 2,303.35 -1.25%
Russell 2000 695.43 -1.4%
Wilshire 5000 13,609.49 +.12%
Russell 1000 Growth 558.53 +.11%
Russell 1000 Value 744.18 +.54%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 691.26 +.36%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 947.21 +.19%
Morgan Stanley Technology 538.76 -.81%
Transports 4,680.59 -.54%
Utilities 497.54 -.25%
MSCI Emerging Markets 140.55 +1.4%

Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 58,111 -4.2%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -299
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 29.0 +49.2%
CFTC Oil Large Speculative Longs 232,424 +6.86%
Total Put/Call 1.14 +12.87%
NYSE Arms .54 -60.0%
Volatility(VIX) 24.06 -5.79%
G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.83 -.1%
ISE Sentiment 82.0 -6.82%
AAII % Bulls 33.2 -.45%
AAII % Bears 44.7 +6.78%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 99.07 +3.95%
Reformulated Gasoline 254.23 +2.98%
Natural Gas 9.21 +5.19%
Heating Oil 276.30 +3.86%
Gold 947.80 +3.97%
Base Metals 255.54 +4.76%
Copper 380.30 +8.97%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 3.79% +2 basis points
10-year TIPS Spread 2.36% +6 basis points
TED Spread .89 +1 basis point
Fed Fund Futures 94.0% chance of 50 cut, 6.0% chance of 25 cut on 3/18
Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 153.26 +4.95%
Iraqi 2028 Govt Bonds 73.20 +.54%
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 360,500 +3.1%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 6.04% +32 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 822,800 -22.6%
Weekly Retail Sales +.7%
Nationwide Gas $3.11/gallon +.13/gallon.
US Heating Demand Next 7 Days right at normal
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 132.30 -.60%
US Dollar Index 75.52 -.83%
CRB Index 398.67 +3.72%

Best Performing Style
Mid-cap Value +.56%

Worst Performing Style
Small-cap Growth -1.98%

Leading Sectors
Steel +8.7%
Construction +4.96%
Insurance +3.3%
Oil Service +3.19%
Wireless +2.26%

Lagging Sectors
Gaming -2.77%
Airlines -3.29%
Biotech -3.80%
Alternative Energy -5.56%
Telecom -6.42%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers

One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Finish Higher, Boosted by Retail, REIT, Financial and Gaming Shares

Evening Review
Market Summary
Top 20 Biz Stories
Today’s Movers
Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
Style Performance
Commodity Movers
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Commentary
After-hours Movers
After-hours Real-Time Stock Bid/Ask
After-hours Stock Quote
After-hours Stock Chart

In Play

Stocks Rebounding into Final Hour on Report of Ambac Financial Bailout

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower into the final hour on losses in my Computer longs, Semi longs and Biotech longs. I covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and was stopped out of my (SIGM) long today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The overall tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is substantially lower, almost every sector is falling and volume is about average. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is bearish. The VIX is rising 2.3% today to a high 25.7. The ISE Sentiment Index is a very low 88.0 and the total put/call is a high 1.21 today. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running high all day and is current 1.41. I do not see any real fundamental reason for the severe weakness today in (SIGM), however my strategy dictates that I step aside for now. I plan to re-enter the position later this year. I am seeing a number of other stocks break down for little or no apparent reason, which is a negative. The Shanghai Composite fell another 3.5% last night and is close to testing its recent low. The index is now down 28.6% from its high of last October. Recent weakness in emerging Asia could be one of the main reasons for recent selling in the US technology sector. CNBC just reported that a bailout for (ABK), that would allow it to retain its AAA rating, is in the works and could occur by next Tuesday. This would be a large positive for the broad market. Stocks are surging on the news. Nikkei futures indicate a -145 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a -10 open in Germany on Monday. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short covering and bargain hunting.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Small-cap Growth -1.71%

Sector Underperformers:

Oil Tankers (-3.68%), Airlines (-3.25%) and HMOs (-2.33%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

SOV, CBEY, CACB, INTU, OFIX, UNFI, QDEL, LNET, GFIG, CECO, HLTH, SWIM, CCOI, MGRC, LTM and AYR

Today's Headlines

Today’s Headlines
Bloomberg:

- Affiliated Managers Group(AMG) dropped as much as 6.9% after Bloomberg News reported the largest hedge fund run by the company’s AQR Capital Management fell almost 15% in the first six weeks of this year.
- The global sugar glut in the 2008-2009 season will be more than twice as big as previously estimated because higher prices will encourage more production in Brazil, Societe Kingsman SA said.
- Copper stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange rose for the first time this month. Supplies jumped 4.6% from yesterday. Moreover, inventories tallied by the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged 45% this week.

- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard W. Fisher said that the US will probably see slower economic growth rather than a deeper downturn.
- New York Times(NYT) fell for a second day on the NYSE after a Goldman Sachs Group(GS) analyst said that asset sales advocated by hedge funds may not be financially practical.
- Europe Services Growth Accelerated More Than Forecast.

Wall Street Journal:
- In a move aimed at preventing future freezes in credit markets, US and foreign bank regulators are jointly developing a set of best practices to improve the way banks deal with cash-flow problems.
- Debate on ‘Net Neutrality’ Misses Technology Shift.
- China’s Pearl River Delta – the southern coastal area that in the past two decades has become the world’s factory floor for low-end goods – is losing thousands of factories.

NY Times:
- Hillary Clinton’s campaign spending report, which detailed expenses such as $100,000 for party platters in Iowa and $5 million on political consultants in January, appeared to her supporters and donors as a road map of her political and management failings.

FINalternatives:
- Over the past three election cycles, hedge fund managers and their colleagues have become some of the most important donors to Democrats and Democratic candidates. Of the more than $3 million in hedge fund cash given to presidential candidates last year, 75% went to Democrats. Party leadership is hoping to leverage this newfound strength with a NY fundraiser aimed specifically at hedge fund professionals.

Boston Globe:
- For the first time in almost a decade, office rents in downtown Boston have moved about the eye-popping $100-a-square-foot mark as demand tightens.

TampaBayOnline:
- Despite What Critics Say, Fed Is Doing Right Thing To Help Economy.

USA Today:
- No time to relax: States want new retirees’ experience. The wave of baby boomers hitting retirement age threatens to create such a void in the workforce that states are crafting policies and programs to keep older Americans working and volunteering.

NY Post:
- A deal between Chicago giant CME Group(CME) and The New York Mercantile Exchange(NMX) to create a $40 billion futures trading powerhouse could be formally announced by early March.

AP:
- The US government approved the first “virtual” fence along the US and Mexican border in Arizona, a 28-mile stretch lined with radar and surveillance cameras build to stop people crossing into the country illegally.

Milliyet:
- Turkey’s politicians and army decided to renew diplomatic contacts with the northern Iraqi administration.

Daily Telegraph:
- The UK’s Financial Services Authority may allow small investors to put money into hedge funds.

Interfax:
- Russia may use force if the European Union recognizes Kosovo or NATO exceeds its mandate in the territory, Russia’s ambassador to the military alliance said

Sidney Morning Herald:
- Loophole allows hedge funds to manipulate stock in secret.

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Large-cap Growth (-.74%)

Sector Outperformers:

Gaming (+.76%), Hospitals (+.63%) and REITs (+.05%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

OCR, HVT, CAB, LYG, HTV, ESRX, VE, SBAC, BAP, MVSN, DRL, HTX, LLTC, SHPGY, MINI, TSON, PSYS, NDSN, NCTY, VLCM, LULU, RRGB, AUXL, ENDP, SDXC, IMCL, SYNT, ABAX, BIOD, ICON, AMZN, FLI, NCI and ME