Thursday, August 28, 2008

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- Fannie Mae(FNM), the largest U.S. mortgage- finance company, ``should get through'' the housing slump without having to raise more capital, according to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Fannie ended the second quarter with $14 billion of core capital above its minimum requirement and $9 billion above its temporary 15 percent surplus requirement, Lehman analyst Bruce Harting in New York wrote today in a note to clients.
- MBIA Inc.(MBI) rose the most in seven months after the company agreed to reinsure $184 billion in municipal bonds for Financial Guaranty Insurance Co., winning new business after losing its top AAA rating.
- The US dollar rebounded from the lowest level against the euro this week as the U.S. economy expanded in the second quarter faster than previously estimated and crude oil prices decreased. The pound dropped to near a record low against the euro and depreciated versus the dollar as house prices in Britain fell this month at the fastest annual pace in almost 20 years. The decline in crude oil pushed Canada's dollar down the most in almost three weeks.
- Copper fell after inventories monitored by the London Metal Exchange jumped to the highest in six months, easing supply concerns. Stockpiles gained 2,200 metric tons, or 1.3 percent, to 170,500 tons today, the highest since Feb. 6. Before today, copper dropped 5.9 percent this month as inventories gained 18 percent.
- Crude oil fell more than $2 a barrel after the International Energy Agency said it would tap strategic stockpiles, if needed, because of Tropical Storm Gustav. Prices also fell because U.S. stockpiles of natural gas, a competing fuel, increased more than analysts forecast. Supplies rose 102 billion cubic feet to 2.757 trillion cubic feet last week, the U.S. Energy Department said today. A gain of 84 billion was expected, according to a Bloomberg News survey. ``This is a really bearish natural gas number,'' said Kyle Cooper, an analyst at IAF Advisors in Houston.
- Wheat fell for the fifth straight session on signs that demand from the U.S., the world's largest exporter of the grain, has waned after the price rallied in the first three weeks of August. ``Our export sales are going to fall off the map because we're too high,'' said Darrell Holaday, the president of Advanced Market Concepts in Manhattan, Kansas. ``Why would you buy from us? The only thing we can do is get the price down to be competitive.''

- Google Inc.(GOOG) will proceed with a partnership to provide advertising on Yahoo! Inc.'s Internet search results by early October, Chief Executive Officer Eric Schmidt said.
- Tiffany & Co.(TIF) rose as much as 12 percent in New York trading after the luxury jewelry maker posted second-quarter profit than nearly doubled and forecast higher annual earnings.
- Eastern Europe's economic outlook is deteriorating and the risk of a ``hard landing'' accompanied by an exchange rate crisis somewhere in the region is ``significant and rising,'' Fitch Ratings said. Average growth in the region may slow to a six-year low of 5.8 percent this year, from 6.9 percent in 2007, and weaken further to 5.3 percent in 2009, Fitch said in a report titled Emerging Europe Faces Testing Outlook today.

Wall Street Journal:
-
In a sign of increasing concern about cheating, the nation's top business schools will soon require a high-tech identity check for standardized admissions tests.
- Congress hasn't yet passed any one of the 12 appropriations bills needed to fund the government when the new fiscal year begins Oct. 1. And Congress isn't likely to pass them through both houses and get them to the president before leaving town.
- "There are no winners from this conflict" was the public verdict of Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, on his country's war with Georgia. But what about OAO Gazprom, the Kremlin-controlled energy company? The longer-term result of the war will probably be that European governments try to reduce their dependence on Russian energy and that will damage Gazprom stock’s attractiveness as an investment.

The Washington Post:
- Russia's conflict with Georgia is the sign of a "weak" Russian nation, not a newly assertive one, and Moscow now has put its place in the world order at risk, the top U.S. diplomat for relations with the country said in an interview yesterday.

KTIC Radio:
- Internet giant Yahoo(YHOO) is eyeing an Omaha suburb as the location for some of its operations. The company recently applied for the biggest slate of state tax breaks available in Nebraska to help set up some operations in La Vista.

FINalternatives:
- Hedge fund manager Mark Boucher has settled a suit with the Securities and Exchange Commission that accused him of misleading investors in his real estate investments. Boucher, who is also the author of the book “The Hedge Fund Edge,” agreed to pay a $100,000 fine and to refrain from acting as an investment adviser for five years.

Reuters:
- The Inspector General for the U.S. commodity-futures regulator has officially begun an investigation into an inter-agency report on commodity markets, the Wall Street Journal said citing a person close to the matter.
- Two million Britons may be out of work by Christmas and big cuts in interest rates are needed now to stop the economy heading into a deep and prolonged slump, Bank of England policymaker David Blanchflower told Reuters. In an interview on Thursday, Blanchflower said the Bank could no longer be complacent because the economy was already shrinking and a rate cut of more than 25 basis points was probably needed. He said his own forecast earlier this year that house prices could fall by 30 percent was looking optimistic and that the jobless total could spike higher as construction companies and banks lay off workers.

Valor Economico:
- Brazil’s economy is showing signs of slower economic growth and so it’s not the right time to take more steps to curb the country’s credit expansion, Finance Minister Guido Mantega said. The central bank considered measures to reduce the pace of Brazil’s credit growth, which the finance minister called “excessive,” but decided to raise rates instead, Mantega said.

AFP:
- Moqtada al-Sadr, the Iraqi Shiite Muslim religious leader, suspended fighting by his Mahdi Army militia. The militia, which has as many as 60,000 members, will cease operations “indefinitely,” citing a statement issued by al-Sadr today.

Aftenposten:
- Norway has joined Switzerland in opening up for talks with terrorist leader Osama bin Laden. That doesn't mean Norway is going soft on the fight against terrorism, though, said the country's deputy foreign minister.

Xinhua News:
- Finished home sales in China fell 17.8% from January through July of this year.

Global Enerji:
- Turkey will import 1 million metric tons of fuel oil from Iraq each year that will be mixed with local output, citing Mehmet Uysal, the head of Turkish state oil company Turkiye Petrolleri AO. Turkiye Petrolleri has spent $1 billion exploring for oil off its Black Sea coast and plans to open at least seven wells in the next three years.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

Large-cap Growth +.40%

Sector Underperformers:

Oil Service irlind (-1.57%), Coal (-1.44%) and Energy (-1.28%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

GMXR, GDP, CYBX, ENER, VRX, DSW, WSM and BF/B

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) MBI 2) SU 3) DELL 4) ARO 5) MRVL

Graph: US Oil Demand and Prices Plunged After Hurricanes Katrina and Rita


(click on image to enlarge)

BOTTOM LINE: It seems to be conventional wisdom by the many oil cheerleaders in the financial press that damaging hurricanes are bullish for oil prices. While the historic hurricanes in 2005 did cause an initial spike in prices as they made landfall, the ensuing plunge in US oil demand eventually led to a severe decline in energy prices. Hurricane Katrina made landfall on Aug. 29th and Rita on Sept. 24, 2005. As you can see from the above graph, the four-week moving average of US oil demand(the green line) plunged 19.4% from the week of Sept. 2nd through the week of October 21st. The price of a barrel of oil peaked on August 30, 2005 at $70.85 and collapsed 21.8% to $55.40 a barrel on November 18th, 2005. Moreover,
the International Energy Agency has said it is ready to release strategic oil stocks if needed and European refineries are under-utilized, meaning that imports could easily rise to cover any lost petroleum product supply. Finally, I would argue that the global fundamentals for oil are much worse now than during 2005 even with prices substantially higher.

2Q GDP Revised Substantially Higher to 3.3% Despite Significant Inventory Drawdown, Intial Jobless Claims Fall

- Preliminary 2Q GDP rose 3.3% versus estimates of a 2.7% gain and a prior estimate of a 1.9% increase.

- Preliminary 2Q Personal Consumption rose 1.7% versus estimates of a 1.6% gain and a prior estimate of a 1.5% increase.

- Preliminary 2Q GDP Price Index rose 1.2% versus estimates of a 1.1% gain and a prior estimate of a 1.1% increase.

- Preliminary 2Q Core PCE rose 2.1% versus estimates of a 2.1% gain and a prior estimate of a 2.1% increase.

- Initial Jobless Claims for last week fell to 425K versus estimates of 425K and 435K the prior week.

- Continuing Claims rose to 3423K versus estimates of 3390K and 3359K prior.

BOTTOM LINE: The US economy expanded faster than previously estimated in the second quarter, helped by a surge in exports, Bloomberg reported. Trade contributed the most to US growth in almost 30 years as the trade deficit shrank to the lowest level in 8 years. The expansion during 2Q was the fastest since 3Q 2007. Residential construction continued to substantially impact growth, falling a larger than initially reported 15.7% during 2Q. As well, inventories fell at a $49.4 billion annual rate during 2Q, which subtracted 1.44 percentage points from growth. I still believe 3Q/4Q GDP will exceed estimates on decelerating inflation, inventory rebuilding, better-than-expected domestic demand and strong, but slowing, exports.

The number of Americans filing new jobless claims declined last week, Bloomberg reported. The four-week moving average of jobless claims dropped to 440,250 from 446,250 the prior week. The jump in jobless claims in prior weeks due to the government’s extension of jobless benefits that was passed under the spending bill signed by President Bush still hasn’t been quantified by the government. The unemployment rate among those eligible for benefits, which tracks the US unemployment rate, rose to 2.6% versus 2.5% the prior week and the long-term average of 2.9%. I expect jobless claims to continue to improve modestly through year-end.

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

Small-cap Value (+1.20%)

Sector Outperformers:

Airlines (+5.70%), Gaming (+2.40%) and Telecom (+2.10%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

TXT, AXA, ALJ, MGG, LAYN, CLNE, AMLN, KNDL, BIOD, DXPE, UAUA, AFAM, SPWR, SYMC, LBTYK, ZLC, JAS, TIF, MBI, IGV, MW, CYD and PER

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) AFL 2) ESI 3) COH 4) ARO 5) NKE

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