Monday, February 23, 2009

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
Large-cap Value (+.12%)

Sector Outperformers:
Banks (+1.66%), Airlines (+.98%) and Restaurants (+.11%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
USB, WFC, SKYW, CAL, MDCO, TWC, MDRX, LUK, ITT, GRMN, GEOY, CECO, NILE, NCTY, WABC, JCOM, CPLA, SHPGY, LAYN, ZN, CIB, KDN, VAL and GPI

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) HUM 2) DISH 3) JBLU 4) ONXX 5) APOL

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot Commentary
Market Performance Summary
Style Performance
Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories
IBD Breaking News
Movers & Shakers
Upgrades/Downgrades
In Play
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume

Hot Spots

Option Dragon

NASDAQ 100 Heatmap

Chart Toppers
Real-Time Intraday Quote/Chart
HFR Global Hedge Fund Indices

Sunday, February 22, 2009

Monday Watch

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (HPQ), (L) and (NTRS).


Citigroup:

- Upgraded (LTD) to Buy, target $10.

- Upgraded (NILE) to Buy, target $30.


Night Trading
Asian indices are -1.25% to +1.75% on avg.
S&P 500 futures +1.04%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +1.07%.


Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Futures
Top 25 Stories
Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Earnings Calendar

Conference Calendar

Who’s Speaking?
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling


Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (FST)/.30

- (ONXX)/-.65

- (MHK)/.24

- (JWN)/.30

- (CPB)/.64

- (HTZ)/.06


Upcoming Splits

- None of note


Economic Releases

- None of note


Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Lockhart speaking, Fed’s Fisher speaking, (HON) investor conference and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index could also impact trading today.


BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Click here for Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.

Click here for stocks in focus for Monday by MarketWatch.


There are several economic reports of note and a number of significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.


Economic reports for the week include:


Mon. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity


Tues. – S&P/CS Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence, House Price Index, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Bernanke Report on Economy & Fed Policy, weekly retail sales


Wed. – Weekly MBA mortgage applications report, weekly EIA energy inventory data, Existing Home Sales


Thur. – Weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims, New Home Sales


Fri. – Preliminary 4Q GDP, Preliminary 4Q Personal Consumption, Preliminary GDP Price Index, Preliminary Core PCE, Chicago Purchasing Manager, Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence, NAPM-Milwaukee


Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:


Mon. – Forest Oil(FST), Onyx Pharmaceuticals(ONXX), Mohawk Industries(MHK), Nordstrom(JWN), Hertz Global(HTZ), Campbell Soup(CPB)


Tues. – Quanta Services(PWR), Medco Health Solutions(MHS), Home Depot(HD), St. Joe(JOE), Papa John’s(PZZA), Crown Castle(CCI), First Solar(FSLR), Blackstone Group(BX), Macy’s(M), HJ Heinz(HNZ), Wynn Resorts(WYNN), Foster Wheeler(FWLT), Target(TGT), Office Depot(ODP), Vornado Realty(VNO)


Wed. – JM Smucker(SJM), Saks Inc.(SKS), Eaton Vance(EV), TJX Cos(TJX), Liberty Media(LMDIA), Express Scripts(ESRX), Flour Corp.(FLR), Salesforce.com(CRM), Dollar Tree(DLTR), Ltd Brands(LTD), SPX Corp.(SPW), Del Monte(DLM)


Thur. – Federal Signal(FSS), ENSCO Intl.(ESV), Warnaco Group(WRC), Sears Holdings(SHLD), American Tower(AMT), Boyd Gaming(BYD), Novell(NOVL), Kohl’s(KSS), Gap Inc.(GPS), Cablevision(CVC), Deckers Outdoor(DECK), Public Storage(PSA), Dell Inc.(DELL), El Paso(EP), Louisiana Pacific(LPX), Rowan Cos(RDC), Safeway(SWY), Frontier Oil(FTO)


Fri. – Mirant(MIR)


Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:


Mon. – The Fed’s Lockhart speaking, Fed’s Fisher speaking, BMO Capital Global Metals & Mining Conference, CSFB Global Services Conference, (HON) investor conference

Tue. – President Obama addresses joint session of Congress, Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies before Senate, Fed’s Fisher speaking, Fed’s Duke speaking, BMO Capital Global Metals & Mining Conference, Merrill Lynch Insurance Conference, CSFB Global Services Conference, (WLP) investor conference, (CXG) investor meeting, (MSFT) strategic update, (HBI) investor day, (XTO) analyst conference, (CERN) investment community meeting, (JNPR) analyst meeting


Wed. – Fed Chairman Bernanke gives monetary policy report before House panel, Jeffries Internet Conference, UBS Industrials Conference, BMO Capital Global Metals & Mining Conference, Robert Baird Business Conference, Merrill Lynch Insurance Conference, CSFB Global Services Conference, Goldman Tech & Internet Conference, Pacific Crest Technology Summit, (VOLC) analyst meeting


Thur. – President Obama releases his first budget proposal, Jeffries Internet Conference, Robert Baird Business Conference, Goldman Tech & Internet Conference, Pacific Crest Technology Summit, (BKC) analyst meeting, (DF) investor day, (SFY) analyst meeting, (PCG) analyst meeting


Fri. – The Fed’s Bullard speaking, Fed’s Plosser speaking, Fed’s Yellen speaking, Goldman Tech & Internet Conference, Pacific Crest Technology Summit, (ETN) analyst meeting, (IMGN) analyst meeting, (HS) investor day, (PGN) analyst meeting


BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on bargain-hunting, technical buying, declining credit market angst, diminishing financial sector pessimism and short-covering. My trading indicators are giving mostly bullish signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Friday, February 20, 2009

Stocks Finish Lower, Weighed Down by Financial, Commodity, Airline and HMO Shares

Evening Review
Market Summary

Top 20 Biz Stories

Today’s Movers

Market Performance Summary

WSJ Data Center

Sector Performance

ETF Performance

Style Performance

Commodity Movers

Market Wrap CNBC Video
(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View

Timely Economic Charts

GuruFocus.com

PM Market Call

After-hours Commentary

After-hours Movers

After-hours Real-Time Stock Bid/Ask

After-hours Stock Quote

After-hours Stock Chart

In Play

Stocks Rebounding into Final Hour on Less Extreme Financial Sector Pessimism, Short-Covering, Bargain-Hunting

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Internet longs, Education longs, Biotech longs, Medical longs, Computer longs and Emerging Market/Commodity/Index shorts. I covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, sector performance is mostly negative and volume is heavy. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is bullish. Nikkei futures indicate a -46 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +41 open in Germany on Monday. I expect US stocks to trade higher into the close from current levels on less financial sector pessimism, bargain-hunting and short-covering.