Tuesday, December 01, 2009

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
Large-Cap Value (+1.17%)

Sector Underperformers:
Education (-1.94%), Banks (-.13%) and Defense (+.77%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
ESI, CSTR, APWR and OVTI


Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) PDLI 2) WHR 3) XLU 4) FST 5) SD

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
Mid-Cap Growth (+1.33%)

Sector Outperformers:
Steel (+3.0%), Agriculture (+2.75%) and Semis (+2.10%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
FST, IOC, TSU, SWC, RTP, PFE, GSK, NDAQ, TSTC, CAAS, CAGC, WATG, BECN, SPLS, ULTA, TRIT, FGXI, NILE, EPAY, ALTR, MDVN, SPWRB, DLLR, PSSI, GPRE, CTRP, CEDC, SSRI, IBA and GES


Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) WCG 2) NBR 3) VPRT 4) FST 5) SPLS

Trading Links

BNO Breaking Global News of Note

Google Top Stories

Bloomberg Breaking News

Yahoo Most Popular Biz Stories

MarketWatch News Viewer

Briefing.com In Play

SeekingAlpha Market Currents

WSJ Today’s Markets

Briefing.com Stock Market Update

Stocks On The Move
Upgrades/Downgrades

WSJ Data Center

Markit CDS Market Summary

Commodity Futures

StockCharts Market Performance Summary

Morningstar Style Performance
Sector Performance
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume

Hot Spots

Option Dragon

NASDAQ 100 Heatmap

Chart Toppers
CNBC Real-Time Intraday Quote/Chart
HFR Global Hedge Fund Indices

Monday, November 30, 2009

Tuesday Watch

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (ALTR), raised estimates, target $27.


Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.

Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index 114.50 unch.
S&P 500 futures -.07%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.03%.


Morning Preview

BNO Breaking Global News of Note

Google Top Stories

Bloomberg Breaking News

Yahoo Most Popular Biz Stories

MarketWatch News Viewer

Asian Financial News

European Financial News

Latin American Financial News

MarketWatch Pre-market Commentary

U.S. Equity Preview

TradeTheNews Morning Report

Briefing.com In Play

SeekingAlpha Market Currents

Briefing.com Bond Ticker

US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Futures
IBD New America
Economic Preview/Calendar
Earnings Calendar

Conference Calendar

Who’s Speaking?
Upgrades/Downgrades

Politico Headlines
Rasmussen Reports Polling


Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (CPRT)/.40

- (SPLS)/.38


Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

- ISM Manufacturing for November is estimated to fall to 55.0 versus 55.7 in October.

- ISM Prices Paid for November is estimated at 65.0 versus 65.0 in October.

- Construction Spending for October is estimated to fall -.5% versus a +.8% gain in September.

- Pending Home Sales for October are estimated to fall -1.0% versus a +6.1% gain in September.


Afternoon:

- Total Vehicle Sales for November are estimated to rise to 10.5M versus 10.45M in October.


Upcoming Splits
- None of note


Other Potential Market Movers
-
The Fed’s Plosser speaking, API Energy Inventory report, CSFB Technology Conference, Citi Basic Materials Conference, Citi Chemical Conference, (AGO) analyst meeting, FBR Investor Conference, Piper Jaffray Healthcare Conference, (UNH) analyst day, ABC Consumer Confidence reading and the weekly retail sales reports could also impact trading today.


BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Higher, Boosted By Airline, Education, Internet, Utility, REIT, Bank, I-Bank, Insurance and Paper Shares

Evening Review
BNO Breaking Global News of Note

Google Top Stories

Bloomberg Breaking News

Yahoo Most Popular Biz Stories

MarketWatch News Viewer

Briefing.com In Play

SeekingAlpha Market Currents

WSJ Today’s Markets
Today’s Movers
StockCharts Market Performance Summary

WSJ Data Center

Sector Performance

ETF Performance

Morningstar Style Performance
Commodity Futures
S&P 500 Gallery View

Timely Economic Charts

Most Recent Guru Stock Picks
CNN PM Market Call

After-hours Stock Commentary

After-hours Movers

After-hours Stock Quote
After-hours Stock Chart

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Less Financial Sector Pessimism, Short-Covering, Bargain-Hunting

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Technology longs, Medical longs and Retail longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are falling and volume is light. Investor anxiety is very high. Today’s overall market action is bearish. The VIX is rising +1.82% and is very high at 25.20. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 109.0 and the total put/call is high at 1.06. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running around average most of the day, hitting 1.12 at its intraday peak, and is currently 1.09. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling -.45% to 79.31 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is rising +.96% to 106.25 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is falling -3 basis points to 21 basis points. The TED spread is now down 445 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is rising +2.07% to 33.94 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is down -1 basis point to 11 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is unch. at 2.11%, which is down -54 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .04%, which is up +2 basis points today. Many market leading stocks are outperforming the broad market. As well, Airline, Education, REIT, Utility, Insurance, I-Bank, Bank, Internet and Oil Service stocks are all higher on the day. (XLF)/(IYR) have traded well throughout the day. The bears have been unable to gain meaningful downside traction after the morning reversal lower and some negative news items, which is a positive. On the negative side, breadth has been somewhat weak as small-caps come under pressure again. Given the gains in Asia overnight and financial sector strength, today’s broad market morning sell-off was disappointing. Healthcare-related, Gaming, Retail, Telecom, Defense and Semi shares are all underperforming. The UK sovereign debt cds is rising another +.7% today after an +8.7% gain over the last five days, which is another negative. Nikkei futures indicate a -90 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +12 open in Germany on Monday. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, bargain hunting, stable long-term rates, less financial sector fear and seasonal strength.