North American Investment Grade CDS Index 91.91 bps +.98%
European Financial Sector CDS Index 131.33 bps +23.90%
Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 168.33 bps +3.27%
Emerging Market CDS Index 221.18 bps +1.16%
2-Year Swap Spread 18.0 +1 bp
TED Spread 16.0 +1 bp
Economic Gauges:
3-Month T-Bill Yield .12% -1 bp
Yield Curve 233.0 -4 bps
China Import Iron Ore Spot $164.40/Metric Tonne +.98%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index +29.70 unch.
10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13% unch.
Overseas Futures:
Nikkei Futures: Indicating -35 open in Japan
DAX Futures: Indicating +16 open in Germany
Portfolio:
Slightly Higher: On gains in my Retail, Biotech and Technology long positions
Disclosed Trades: None
Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is mildly bearish as the S&P 500 trades just modestly lower despite China inflation concerns, rising financial sector pessimism and increasing euro sovereign debt angst. On the positive side, Gaming, HMO, Disk Drive and Gold shares are especially strong, rising more than 1.0%. Cyclical and small-cap shares are substantially outperforming. (IYR) is bucking (XLF) weakness. Tech shares have also been relatively strong throughout the day. The 10-year yield is falling -7 bps to 2.8%. On the negative side, Homebuilding, Bank, Road&Rail, I-Banking and Steel shares are under pressure, falling more than 1.0%. (XLF) has substantially underperformed throughout the day. Copper is falling -1.74% and Gold is gaining +.76%. The Greece sovereign cds is jumping +5.69% to 1,039.14 bps, the Portugal sovereign cds is surging +9.68% to 453.97 bps, the Spain sovereign cds is climbing +7.73% to 282.08 bps, the UK sovereign cds is rising +3.81% to 62.52 bps and the Ireland sovereign cds is gaining +3.29% to 522.29 bps. While the huge jump in the euro financial sector cds index is very troubling, it is still only at the upper end of the trading range it has been in since early July. Given the jump in eurozone debt angst, recent equity gains, China inflation fears, insider trading scandals and financial sector Basel III concerns, the broad market remains impressively resilient. Some market-leading growth stocks trade very well. As has been the case for most of the year, those companies that can post relatively strong earnings growth in most economic environments are seeing p/e multiple expansion and continue to hugely outperform the S&P 500. If the market can continue to consolidate recent gains in a healthy fashion during this period of heightened eurozone debt angst, any calming of fears should produce another upside surge in stocks. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on technical buying, short-covering, tech sector optimism, seasonal strength and bargain-hunting.
Irish Aid Bid Prompts Moody's Warning, Threat of Elections. Ireland’s bid for financial aid may trigger a cut in the country’s credit rating, the demise of the government and an exodus of multinational companies. The euro fell and Irish bonds pared their advance after Moody’s Investors Service said a “ multi-notch” downgrade in Ireland’s Aa2 credit rating was “most likely” because the aid would increase the country’s debt burden. The prospect of January elections loomed as the Green Party said it would pull out of Prime Minister Brian Cowen’s coalition. A rescue package that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates may total 95 billion euros ($130 billion) failed to damp speculation that Portugal and Spain would follow Ireland in tapping the fund set up by the European Union and International Monetary Fund after the Greece rescue. “It probably won’t halt contagion,” said Sylvain Broyer, chief euro-region economist at Natixis in Frankfurt. “The sovereign crisis isn’t yet over. Ireland is in the middle of a difficult crisis.”
North Korea Calls U.S. Sanctions Bluff With Latest Nuclear Plant Display. North Korea stunned U.S. scientists on a tour of its latest nuclear plant this month, showcasing technological advances that highlight the failure of sanctions to force Kim Jong Il’s regime back to disarmament talks. "The control room was astonishingly modern," Stanford University professor Siegfried S. Hecker wrote in his Nov. 20 report of the visit eight days earlier to the main reactor site at Yongbyon. "We saw a modern, clean centrifuge plant of more than a thousand centrifuges," he said, a reference to the high- speed spinning devices that enrich uranium. The findings from the tour, conducted on the same day President Barack Obama attended a global summit 300 kilometers (188 miles) away in Seoul, prompted him to send the U.S. envoy on North Korea to Asia to coordinate a response. While the uranium program is “another in a series of provocative moves,” it doesn’t pose a crisis, Stephen Bosworth said today in Seoul. "The U.S. is now at the crossroads of engagement and pressure, and sanctions are clearly not working," said Yang Moo Jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul. The Obama approach to North Korea "has done nothing but bolster North Korea’s nuclear capabilities," he said.
China October Copper Imports Decline to One-Year Low. Refined copper imports by China, the world’s largest consumer, tumbled to the lowest level in a year, as high international prices and ample domestic supplies cut the demand for overseas shipments. Refined copper imports declined 30 percent to 169,897 metric tons from 241,711 tons in September, according to Bloomberg News calculations based on data from General Administration of Customs. Inbound shipments dropped for the second consecutive month to the lowest since October 2009. Stockpiles at Shanghai Futures Exchange-monitored warehouses expanded for a third week to the highest level in five months last week, adding 11,313 tons to 126,736 tons, according to the bourse.
Netflix(NFLX) Starts Streaming-Only Subscription Plan for $7.99 a Month in U.S. Netflix Inc., the mail-order and online movie-rental service, introduced its first streaming-only subscription plan in the U.S. for customers to watch movies and TV shows online for $7.99 a month. The plan had been tested in the U.S. after a streaming-only option started in Canada two months ago surpassed the company’s expectations, Los Gatos, California-based Netflix said today in a statement. The company is also boosting the price of combination streaming and mail-order DVD plans.
Novell(NOVL) to Be Bought by Attachmate for $2.2 Billion. Novell Inc., the maker of Linux operating-system software, agreed to be bought by Attachmate Corp. for $2.2 billion, ending an 8-month strategic review aimed at reviving a company that had struggled to sustain growth. Novell investors will get $6.10 a share, Attachmate, a software company owned by private-equity firms including Golden Gate Capital Corp., said today in a statement. That’s 9.1 percent more than Novell’s closing price on Nov. 19.
BMW Shortens Christmas Breaks on Surging 5-Series, X1 Demand. Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, the world’s largest maker of luxury autos, will shorten Christmas breaks at its factories because of surging demand for the revamped 5-Series and new X1 compact sport-utility vehicle. “We are producing as much as we can and are happy for every additional shift we can get,” spokesman Michael Rebstock said today by telephone. “Production capacity is the limiting factor at the moment.”
Northern Trust(NTRS) Forecasts Better US Economy. Northern Trust Corp. (NTRS) thinks the U.S. economy is primed to grow more quickly and has shifted client investments toward stocks and high-yield debt.
Sovereign CDS Costs Rise, Ireland's Politics in Focus. The cost of insuring a basket of European sovereign debt using credit default swaps rose Monday, as the prospect of financial aid for Ireland failed to ease concerns about peripheral euro-zone government debt. Shortly after 1300 GMT, the iTraxx SovX Western Europe index, which allows investors to buy or sell default protection on a basket of 15 sovereign borrowers, was 0.08 percentage point wider from Friday’s close, at around 1.71 percentage points, according to index owner Markit.
Business Insider:
FBI Raids Two Connecticut Hedge Funds. The huge insider trading investigation just ensnared the hedge funds Diamondback and Global Level in its vast web, says the Wall Street Journal. What's really interesting is that both funds raided are run by former SAC traders.
FBI Raids a Third Hedge Fund. The huge insider trading investigation just ensnared the hedge funds Diamondback, Global Level -- and now Loch Capital in its vast web, says the Wall Street Journal.
Apple(AAPL) TV is About to Get a Lot Sexier Today. Apple is rolling out a major new software update today for the iPad, iPhone, and iPod touch: iOS 4.2, which brings features like background processing to the iPad. But the new update is also a big boost for Apple TV, the company's living room gadget. This could, in turn, improve Apple TV sales.
Quadrangle Kaput. Quadrangle Group, the media-focused private equity outfit founded by former car czar Steve Rattner, is winding down, The Post has learned. Sources familiar with the firm's plans, which have been in the works since the end of the summer, said Quadrangle will cease to exist in its current form as it tries to reinvent itself under a new name in the coming weeks.
LA Times:
Task Force Wants Jerry Brown to Create Climate Change Panel. A task force of California politicians, business people, academics and environmentalists is calling on incoming Gov. Jerry Brown to appoint a climate risk council within his office to focus statewide attention on adapting to the effects of global warming. In a report to be released Monday, the 23-member California Adaptation Advisory Panel, a group convened by the Los Angeles-based Pacific Council on International Policy calls for stepped-up data-gathering, monitoring and coordination among state agencies and in the private sector to prepare for a steep sea level rise, diminishing water supplies and the spread of wildfire, as studies have predicted.
Mosque Money Shocker. The so-called Ground Zero mosque recently applied for a $5 million federal grant from a fund designed to rebuild lower Manhattan after 9/11, reports The Daily Beast’s John Avlon.
Politico:
View From Middle East: President Obama is A Problem. H and e has managed to forge surprising unanimity on at least one topic: Barack Obama. A visit here finds both IsraelisPalestinians blame him for the current stalemate — just as they blame one another.
Reuters:
Chinese trust companies halted property loans and investment on government orders, citing four people at Ping An Trust, Zhongrong Intl. Trust and China Credit Trust.
Chinese central bank adviser Li Daokui said the nation should raise deposit rates moderately.
Chinese central bank adviser Li Daokui said curbing inflation is the nation's top priority.
DigiTimes:
HP(HPQ) Sees Strong Notebook Shipments in November and December. Hewlett-Packard (HP) is expected to see its notebook shipments surpass four million units in both November and December 2010, up from only three million units in October as consumer demand for the year-end holidays in western countries is stronger than expected and the growth will also benefit HP's Taiwan-based upstream suppliers including Quanta Computer, Foxconn Electronics (Hon Hai Precision Industry) and Inventec. In addition to the year-end holidays, Intel's new Huron River platform is also a driver for the strong shipment growth, with new notebook models to start shipping by the end of November, targeting the Lunar New Year holidays in China, the sources noted.
Ireland Faces 'Outsized' Problem, Seeks EU, IMF Bailout. Ireland sought international aid, becoming the second euro country to need a rescue as the cost of saving its banks threatened a rerun of the Greek debt crisis that destabilized the currency. Ireland will channel some of the money from the European Union and International Monetary Fund to lenders through a “contingent” capital fund, Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan told reporters late yesterday. The rest of the package, which Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates may total 95 billion euros ($130 billion), would help Ireland avoid selling bonds. “The banks were too big a problem for the country,” Lenihan said in Dublin. “The key issue all the time for the government is to ensure that we do not have a collapse of the banking sector.”
European Default Swaps Index Converges With Emerging Markets: Euro Credit. The cost of insuring western European government debt against default is converging with that of emerging markets. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of credit- default swaps on 15 countries, including Germany and Ireland, climbed this month to within 18.25 basis points of a similar gauge for emerging-market risk, the closest ever, according to CMA. The spread was 160 basis points as recently as February.
Obama Considers Chamber Visit, CEO Summit to Counter Anti-Business Image. President Barack Obama is preparing new overtures to business that may start with a walk into the headquarters of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and a retreat with corporate chief executive officers, according to people familiar with his plans. The Obama administration has been at odds with the Chamber, which fought Obama’s health-care and financial regulatory overhauls and committed $75 million to political ads in the midterm congressional elections, mainly directed against Democrats. The CEO summit would be a way to address complaints from some executives the Democratic administration is anti- business.
German Export Growth to Slow, Wiwo Says, Citing Ifo Institute. German export growth will slow in the fourth quarter from the prior three months, Wirtschaftswoche magazine reported, citing an index it commissioned from the Munich-based Ifo economic institute. Ifo’s October export climate index fell for a sixth straight month to 1.0, the lowest reading since December 2009, the magazine said in an e-mailed release. The index includes the euro’s exchange rate as well as business and consumer confidence indicators in Germany’s main export markets, it said.
Al-Qaeda Plans German Parliament Attack in Berlin, Spiegel Says. Al-Qaeda and linked extremist groups planned to attack Germany’s lower house of parliament in Berlin next year, taking hostages and killing people, Spiegel magazine said, citing calls to investigators by an informant. The attack was planned for February or March, it said. The U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation warned Germany two weeks ago that an attack was being prepared, Spiegel said.
German Police Chief Sees Highest Threat of an Extremist Attack. Germany faces a greater threat of an extremist attack than at any time in the past, more than during elections last year or the 2006 soccer World Cup, according to Matthias Seeger, the country’s federal police chief. Germany has indications of pending attacks from different sources, he said in an advance copy of an interview that will be published in tomorrow’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung.
Fair-Value Fight in Finance Making Volcker Rue FASB Dissonance. A dispute between U.S. and international accounting groups about how to value financial instruments is threatening to derail efforts to converge global standards, affecting how trillions of dollars of assets are marked on bank balance sheets. The debate pits the U.S. Financial Accounting Standards Board, which wants to expand the use of fair-value accounting to all financial assets, including loans and deposits, against the London-based International Accounting Standards Board, which opposes such a wide usage. The outcome also will determine how much capital banks have to hold to meet new rules. FASB’s proposal, announced in May, could cause 26 of the largest U.S. banks to write down the value of about $4 trillion of loans on their books by as much as $138 billion, estimated Jason Goldberg, an analyst at Barclays Plc. Lenders, regulators and some investors have taken IASB’s side, leaving the U.S. standard-setter isolated in its battle.
Hedge Funds Cut Oil Bets as Ireland, china Sap QE2 Gains. Hedge funds cut bullish bets on oil by the most in almost three months amid speculation fallout from the Irish debt crisis and China’s efforts to curb inflation will slow economic growth, sapping demand for fuel. The funds and other large speculators reduced so-called long positions, or wagers on rising prices, by 15 percent in the seven days ended Nov. 16, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly Commitments of Traders report, released Nov. 19. It was the first drop in four weeks and the largest decline since the seven days ended Aug. 24. Net-long positions dropped by 30,518 futures and options combined to 178,397 the week ended Nov. 16, according to the commission report.
Senate Approves $4.6 Billion for Claims by Black Farmers, American Indians. The U.S. Senate yesterday approved spending $4.6 billion to settle two lawsuits: one by black farmers who alleged racial discrimination by government lenders and the other by 300,000 American Indians who said they had been cheated out of land royalties dating to 1887. Passage of the measure, by voice vote, unblocks a legislative logjam that has thwarted payouts, negotiated by the Obama administration, of $1.15 billion to the black farmers and $3.4 billion to the American Indians. “We are one step closer to ensuring that the black farmers and Native Americans in these suits are fully compensated for past failures of judgment by the government,” U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a California Democrat, said in a statement after the Senate vote.
India's Smaller Micro-Lenders Likely to Fail, Srinivasan Says. A quarter of Indian microfinance companies may fail after a clampdown last month in their biggest market pared debt payments and curtailed bank financing, said N. Srinivasan, who consults on the industry for the World Bank. As many as 60 to 70 of the nation’s 260 microfinance institutions are likely to collapse in coming months as banks halt lending to them to curb risks, Srinivasan said in an interview last week. That would have a “devastating effect” on the poorest customers in remote regions, he said.
'Harry Potter' Sets Series Record With $125 Million Oopening. “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows -- Part 1” opened with $125.1 million in U.S. and Canadian ticket sales, a record for the boy-wizard series from Time Warner Inc.’s Warner Bros.
I'd Sign Any Letter to Avert Inflation Crisis: Kevin Hassett. Last week, I joined a number of economists and others in signing an open letter to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, urging him to discontinue the second round of so-called quantitative easing, or QE2.
New Zealand Dollar Slides as S&P Changes Credit Rating Outlook to Negative. New Zealand’s dollar dropped, erasing earlier gains, after Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services revised its outlook on the nation’s foreign currency sovereign credit rating to negative from stable. New Zealand’s currency fell to 77.81 U.S. cents as of 4:07 p.m. in Wellington, having reached as high as 78.37 cents earlier today, from 77.87 cents on Nov. 19 in New York.
Wall Street Journal:
U.S. in Vast Insider Trading Probe. Federal authorities, capping a three-year investigation, are preparing insider-trading charges that could ensnare consultants, investment bankers, hedge-fund and mutual-fund traders and analysts across the nation, according to people familiar with the matter. The criminal and civil probes, which authorities say could eclipse the impact on the financial industry of any previous such investigation, are examining whether multiple insider-trading rings reaped illegal profits totaling tens of millions of dollars, the people say. Some charges could be brought before year-end, they say. The investigations, if they bear fruit, have the potential to expose a culture of pervasive insider trading in U.S. financial markets, including new ways non-public information is passed to traders through experts tied to specific industries or companies, federal authorities say. One focus of the criminal investigation is examining whether nonpublic information was passed along by independent analysts and consultants who work for companies that provide "expert network" services to hedge funds and mutual funds. These companies set up meetings and calls with current and former managers from hundreds of companies for traders seeking an investing edge. Among the expert networks whose consultants are being examined, the people say, is Primary Global Research LLC, a Mountain View, Calif., firm that connects experts with investors seeking information in the technology, health-care and other industries. In another aspect of the probes, prosecutors and regulators are examining whether Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(GS) bankers leaked information about transactions, including health-care mergers, in ways that benefited certain investors, the people say. Independent analysts and research boutiques also are being examined. John Kinnucan, a principal at Broadband Research LLC in Portland, Ore., sent an email on Oct. 26 to roughly 20 hedge-fund and mutual-fund clients telling of a visit by the Federal Bureau of Investigation. "Today two fresh faced eager beavers from the FBI showed up unannounced (obviously) on my doorstep thoroughly convinced that my clients have been trading on copious inside information," the email said. "(They obviously have been recording my cell phone conversations for quite some time, with what motivation I have no idea.) We obviously beg to differ, so have therefore declined the young gentleman's gracious offer to wear a wire and therefore ensnare you in their devious web." The email, which Mr. Kinnucan confirms writing, was addressed to traders at, among others: hedge-fund firms SAC Capital Advisors LP and Citadel Asset Management, and mutual-fund firms Janus Capital Group, Wellington Management Co. and MFS Investment Management. Another aspect of the probe is an examination of whether traders at a number of hedge funds and trading firms, including First New York Securities LLC, improperly gained nonpublic information about pending health-care, technology and other merger deals, according to the people familiar with the matter. Key parts of the probes are at a late stage. A federal grand jury in New York has heard evidence, say people familiar with the matter. But as with all investigations that aren't completed, it's unclear what specific charges, if any, might be brought.
Tax-Writing Panel's Chief Set to Call for Lower Rates. Republican firebrands are set to assume most of the top House chairmanships in January. But one of the most powerful posts will go to Rep. Dave Camp, a no-drama lawyer from Midland, Mich., who is expected to take over the mighty Ways and Means Committee. Few doubt Mr. Camp's conservative credentials. He is keen to slash spending and extend the current tax breaks. At the same time, Mr. Camp is known as a dealmaker who sometimes favors a government role in the economy. Recent statements suggest he may be open to a bargain with Democrats to curb the deficit and expand the tax base.
China Blogger Conference Is Canceled Under Pressure. Organizers were forced to cancel an annual blogging conference in Shanghai this weekend under pressure from authorities, the latest sign of tightening limits in China on free expression. The Chinese Blogger Conference has attracted dozens of prominent online commentators, entrepreneurs, digital artists and others each year since it was started in Shanghai in 2005. Many of the attendees are critical of government censorship, so the event is considered potentially sensitive. It couldn't be determined which arm of the government was responsible. China's government has steadily stepped up efforts in recent years to curb free expression on the Internet, which has more than 420 million users in China—the most of any nation. Earlier this month, a Chinese court handed down a prison sentence of two-and-a-half years to Zhao Lianhai for using the Internet to organize support for parents of children sickened in a tainted-milk scandal. The court found him guilty of inciting social disorder. The winner of this year's Nobel Peace Prize, Liu Xiaobo, was sentenced last Christmas to 11 years in prison for helping write a manifesto calling for political reforms that was circulated over the Internet.
Higher Taxes Won't Reduce the Deficit. History Shows That When Congress Gets More Revenue, The Pols Spend It. The draft recommendations of the president's commission on deficit reduction call for closing popular tax deductions, higher gas taxes and other revenue raisers to drive tax collections up to 21% of GDP from the historical norm of about 18.5%. Another plan, proposed last week by commission member and former Congressional Budget Office director Alice Rivlin, would impose a 6.5% national sales tax on consumers. The claim here, echoed by endless purveyors of conventional wisdom in Washington, is that these added revenues—potentially a half-trillion dollars a year—will be used to reduce the $8 trillion to $10 trillion deficits in the coming decade. If history is any guide, however, that won't happen. Instead, Congress will simply spend the money.
Barron's:
Banks Face Another Mortgage Crisis. The government may have bailed out the nation's biggest banks, but now the courts will sort out who gets stuck with mortgage losses. Banks could lose more than $100 billion. JUST WHEN AMERICA'S MAJOR BANKS seem to be back on their feet, having paid back federal bailout money and cranked up their employee bonus programs, a new threat has emerged that could seriously affect their earnings power over the next few years.
NY Times:
Consumer Risks Feared as Health Law Spurs Mergers. Consumer advocates fear that the health care law could worsen some of the very problems it was meant to solve — by reducing competition, driving up costs and creating incentives for doctors and hospitals to stint on care, in order to retain their cost-saving bonuses.
Google(GOOG) is Close to Buying Groupon. Google is in advanced talks to buy coupon site Groupon for around $2.5 billion, The Post has learned. “It will probably happen in the next month,” a source close to the talks said.
Business Insider:
The FBI is Trying to Nail SAC Capital. One goal of the government's huge investigation into institutional insider trading appears to be to nail SAC Capital, the giant, wildly successful hedge fund run by Steve Cohen.
Goldman's(GS) Take on the Irish Bailout. For what it's worth, here is Goldman's take on the Irish bailout. Since it was Goldman's endless currency swaps that allowed Europe to lie about their deficits and true debt levels, this should certainly be required spin.
Politico:
Robert Gates Warns of Korean Nukes. A newly revealed North Korean nuclear facility could speed up that unpredictable nation's ability to make and deliver viable nuclear weapons, the Pentagon's top leaders said Sunday. U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said he doesn't believe the facility is part of a peaceful nuclear energy program.
TSA Chief: Screening May Evolve. Heeding a sudden furor, John Pistole, administrator of the Transportation Security Administration, said in a Sunday afternoon statement to POLITICO that airport screening procedures “will be adapted as conditions warrant,” in an effort to make them “as minimally invasive as possible, while still providing the security that the American people want and deserve.”
Reuters:
Iran Explores Layer of 34 Billion Barrels - Ministry. Iran has explored a layer of 34 billion barrels of crude under an offshore gas field in the Gulf, the Oil Ministry's website Shana reported on Sunday. Shana quoted Ali Vakili, managing director of Iran's Pars Oil and Gas Co (POGC), as saying the layer was one of the biggest in the Islamic state. "It is located under our Ferdowsi gas field in the Persian Gulf. Drilling of (an) appraisal well is going on to complete the assessments," he said, without giving further details.
Lessons From History in China's Inflation Crisis. History makes clear why the Chinese are so twitchy about their rapidly rising consumer price inflation. The governments of poor countries (even ones that are getting rich as rapidly as China) know that hungry people are quick to take to the streets.
Oriental Morning Post:
Chinese central bank adviser Xia Bin said the nation should further tighten monetary policy next year because of pressure of excess liquidity at home and abroad. China should also tighten capital control and change real interest rates to positive from negative at an appropriate time, Xia said.
China Securities Journal:
China has room to further raise reserve ratios for banks, citing Wu Xiaoling, a lawmaker and former People's Bank of China deputy governor.
U.S. policy that weakens the dollar may lead to continued volatility in the global economy and new crises in emerging markets, Liu Yuhui, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, wrote.
Securities Times:
Chinese inflation may reach 6.3% sometime next year, citing Tao Dong, a Credit Suisse Group AG economist in Hong Kong. China may raise interest rates and the reserve requirement ratio by at least 150 basis points each over the next year to fight inflation, Tao said.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October is estimated to rise to -.24 versus -.58 in September.
Upcoming Splits
None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
The Fed's Kocherlakota speaking and the $35 Billion 2-Year Treasury Notes Auction could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on investment manager performance angst, diminishing economic fear, seasonal strength, tech sector optimism, less sovereign debt angst, bargain-hunting, short-covering and buyout speculation. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving mostly bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
