Friday, September 07, 2012

Friday Watch


Evening Headlin
es
Bloomb
erg:
  • Draghi Buying Risks Backfiring on Debt Profile: Chart of the Day. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi's pledge to buy unlimited quantities of short-dated government bonds risks tying him to an increasing debt burden. Italy and Spain have 846 billion euros of securities due between 2013 and 2015, about 37% of the nations' outstanding debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. With Draghi saying yesterday that the ECB will target bonds with maturities of one to three years, the percentage may increase, said Mohit Kumar, the head of European fixed-income strategy at Deutsche Bank AG in London. "There is a risk of shortening the maturity profile for Italy and Spain," he said. "The redemptions will come round more quickly. Investors will be more than happy to buy at the shorter-end because they know they can sell to the ECB if yields start rising."
  • Economist Sinn Rattles Merkel Laboring to Save Euro. Dressed in his customary gray three- piece suit at a conference in Frankfurt on June 15, Hans-Werner Sinn folds his hands and listens without expression as a series of speakers criticize his economic theories. Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citigroup Inc., goes so far as to decry them as “nonsense.” Taking his turn at the microphone shortly afterward, the 64-year-old president of the Munich-based Ifo Institute for Economic Research says he regrets it when investment bankers such as Buiter “lose their composure.” He then lays out once more his argument that Germany is paying more than it thinks for Greece’s fiscal recklessness and that the struggling southern European nation should long ago have left the euro zone, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its October special issue on the 50 Most Influential people in global finance.
  • Obama Exaggerates Deficit Savings in Budget Plan: Reality Check. President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden made a number of factual assertions in their acceptance speeches last night at the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina. How did they square with reality?
  • Fitch May Lower Ratings on 15% of U.S. Prime Mortgage Securities. Fitch Ratings said that it may lower about 15 percent of its credit grades on securities backed by U.S. prime mortgages, typically those too large for government- tied programs when they were issued. More than 90 percent of the bonds under review were created in 2005 or earlier, the New York-based ratings firm said today in a statement. In a report earlier today, Fitch said that such debt is being made riskier by “adverse selection” after better-quality borrowers refinanced their portion of the underlying loans.
  • China Gets Worst Ranking in Global Poll Since 2010. Global investors are losing faith in China, giving the country’s markets their worst rating in more than two years in the latest Bloomberg poll. About a quarter of those surveyed say they expect Chinese markets to be among the worst performers over the next year. That’s the highest negative reading that the country has received in the quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll since January 2010 and was second only to the 45 percent rating that the European Union received in the Sept. 4 survey. China “will suffer disproportionately from a global slowdown in growth,” said Benjamin Dunn, a poll participant and chief operating officer in Crested Butte, Colorado, for portfolio management company Alpha Theory, in an e-mail. It “will be unable to prevent a hard landing” of its economy.
  • China Price War Draining Jobs in Germany’s Solar Valley: Energy. When Thomas Behling returned to his home state of Saxony-Anhalt in 2006, he was drawn by a job in the solar industry and the chance to participate in Germany’s renewable energy boom. He was fired in July. Behling’s employer, Sovello GmbH, produced its last solar panel on Aug. 26, sending 1,000 workers home after attempts to find an investor to save the seven-year-old company failed. Next door, Q-Cells SE (QCE), once the world’s largest solar-cell maker, is being acquired by Hanwha Group of South Korea as soaring debt brought it to the brink of bankruptcy. At least 12 German solar companies filed for protection from creditors in the past year.
  • Eighty Percent of U.S. Asia Policy Is Just Showing Up. With China throwing its weight around the South China Sea, and snapping at Japan for its plans to buy disputed islands, the waters of the Pacific are looking a little choppy these days. Time for a little high-level diplomacy, you might think -- something that not only eases tensions but also refocuses the nations of the Asia-Pacific on the enormous economic stakes they have in regional peace and stability. If the administration of President Barack Obama is taking seriously this week’s meetings of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation bloc, however, it has a funny way of showing it. Granted, President Obama has a good excuse for not attending the APEC leaders meeting in Vladivostok, Russia. But why did Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner not attend the earlier meeting of his fellow finance ministers in Moscow? More egregiously, why did U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk, the ostensible point person for the administration’s lofty goal of doubling U.S. exports by 2015, skip both the APEC meeting and the latest Trans-Pacific Partnership trade talks to attend the Democratic National Convention in his “personal capacity.” His choice fails the crucial Woody Allen test for effective job performance -- the one that says “80 percent of life is just showing up.”
  • Canada's Harper Seeks More Gains From China in Exchange for Oil. Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said his government will seek to correct trade imbalances with China as he manages a wave of takeover spending from the Asian country. Harper, speaking at the Bloomberg Canada-Asia Conference in Vancouver, said Canada needs to diversify trade to Asia because of sluggish growth in much of the rest of the world, adding that the relationship also needs to become reciprocal.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Obama Presses Plan for U.S. Resurgence. Goals Are Scaled Back From Sweeping Proposals in 2008. President Barack Obama portrayed himself as a stout defender of the middle class and a leader with a plan to create jobs across the U.S. economy in a speech accepting the Democratic nomination for re-election. In an attempt to show he is offering more specifics about how he would govern than is his Republican foe, he laid out a set of goals for a second term designed to show that he has started rebuilding a ravaged economy and has a strategy for going further. The goals, most of which echo those previously set by Mr. Obama, provided a message aimed to ease the economic anxieties of Americans during the last stretch of the campaign.
  • Democrats Party on Corporations' Tab. Obama Won't Take Lobbyists' Donations, but Business Underwrites Good Times in Charlotte; Oil Sponsors Night at a Pub. Democrats went to great lengths to make their convention appear free of corporate influence. And then came the parties. The 2,500-person "Light Up The Night" welcoming concert Monday with singer John Legend was paid for by Duke Energy Corp. and the Washington lobbying arms of the nuclear, natural gas and electricity industries. On Tuesday, hip-hop artist Common rocked the house at an invitation-only event sponsored by a handful of corporate lobbies, including those representing the recording industry, drug companies and News Corp., owner of The Wall Street Journal.
  • Maverick Capital Partner to Leave.
  • Report Cites $750 Billion in Annual Health-Care Waste.
  • Transformers 2. Obama was honest when he said he wanted to remake America.

MarketWatch:

  • Videogame sales fall in August as consoles slump. Videogame sales saw another month of declines in August, with sales of game software in the U.S. falling 9% from the same month last year, according to data from NPD Group released Thursday afternoon. Sales of game hardware sunk by 39% for the month, as demand fell for all major home consoles including the Xbox 360 from Microsoft (MSFT) , the PlaySation 3 from Sony (SNE) and the Wii from Nintendo.

Business Insider:

Zero Hedge:

CNBC:

Kentucky.com:
  • Joy Global(JOY) Laying Off 45 More. Joy Global, a mining equipment manufacturer, plans to lay off 45 more employees at its Lebanon plant. The Milwaukee-based company disclosed the actions, which are expected to be taken by Oct. 26, in a filing that government officials require before large layoffs. In July, the company announced it would lay off 37 of its 176 employees at the time later that month. In its most recent filing, the company noted it now has 137 employees before the layoff of 45 more. In the filing, Joy Global human resources manager Mary Cambron noted the company is "experiencing a temporary decrease in customer orders." "Joy is unclear as to the length of this down market, but we will continue working to bring as many products into our plant as possible to negate the effect this will have on our workforce and the community," she wrote.

    Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/2012/09/06/2325633/lebanon-mining-equipment-maker.html#storylink=cpy

    Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/2012/09/06/2325633/lebanon-mining-equipment-maker.html#storylink=cpy
Rasmussen Reports:
  • Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 44% of the vote. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.
Reuters:
  • FERC takes aim at Deutsche Bank(DB) over power market manipulation. Federal energy regulators have asked Deutsche Bank Energy Trading LLC to provide proof that it did not manipulate California energy markets or face a $1.5 million fine, the regulator said in an order issued on Wednesday.
  • U.S. congressman confirms high-level U.S.-Israel spat over Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu blew up at the U.S. ambassador last month because he was "at wits' end" over what he sees as the Obama administration's lack of clarity on Iran's nuclear program, a U.S. congressman who was at the meeting said. "Right now the Israelis don't believe that this administration is serious when they say all options are on the table, and more importantly neither do the Iranians. That's why the program is progressing," Rogers said.
  • Canada's Harper urges U.S. to take fiscal situation in hand. Concerns about a so-called "fiscal cliff" in the United States are warranted but they should not overshadow the need for America to "get a grip" on its longer-term fiscal situation, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said on Thursday. "The United States fiscal situation is very bad, the trajectory is very bad," Harper said at a Bloomberg conference in Vancouver when asked about the fiscal woes of Canada's biggest trading partner. "And regardless of what happens in the next three or four months, in the next few years that trajectory still has to be resolved," he said.
  • Toys R Us second quarter net loss widens, sales decline. Toys R Us Inc, the world's largest specialty toy retailer, reported a wider loss for its second quarter and a decline in net sales of 3.6 percent. The company said on Thursday that it had a net loss in the quarter that ended July 28 of $36 million compared with a net loss of $34 million in the prior year. Net sales fell to $2.6 billion, while sales at stores open at least a year were down 3.4 percent domestically and 4.4 percent internationally. Within the international segment, the largest decline was in Europe, which is reeling from an economic crisis. The company also blamed lackluster demand for electronics, video game hardware and software for lower sales.
  • Ulta Beauty(ULTA) profit lifted by pricier brands, new stores. Beauty retailer Ulta Beauty reported a higher-than-expected profit for the ninth straight quarter and forecast strong earnings for the current quarter as it benefits from opening new stores and selling more high-priced products. The company's shares were up 9 percent at $104.30 after the bell.
Financial Times:
  • Investment banks eye Europe job cuts. Big investment banks in Europe, including Nomura, Credit Suisse and UBS, are stepping up plans to cut jobs as they seek to adapt to a drastic slowdown in revenues and tighter regulation. Bank executives, headhunters and analysts say that the cuts are shaping up as the deepest since the start of the financial crisis after a disappointing summer dashed hopes of a business revival.
  • NYSE and CME plan futures ‘kill switches’. Two of the world’s largest derivatives exchanges have signed on to a service with a “kill switch” to limit damage from errant trading by algorithms, as futures bourses look to bolster investor confidence in their markets. CME, operator of the world’s biggest futures exchange, and NYSE Liffe, one of the Europe’s dominant futures and options markets, will use a service that allows futures commissions merchants to halt or limit trading activity at high speed if a computer begins to malfunction or a customer breaches risk limits.

Telegraph:

Evening Recommendations
CSFB:
  • Upgraded (CAB) to Outperform, target $58.
  • Rated (FL) Outperform, target $43.
  • Downgraded (BGFV) to Underperform, target $7.50.
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are +.75% to +2.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 141.50 -7.5 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 121.0 -1.0 basis piont.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.09%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.06%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (LULU)/.31
  • (KR)/.49
  • (CMVT)/.08
  • (BRC)/.52
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for August is estimated to fall to 130K versus 163K in July.
  • The Unemployment Rate for August is estimated at 8.3% versus 8.3% in July.
  • Average Hourly Earnings for August is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in July.

Upcoming Splits

  • (ODFL) 3-for-2

Other Potential Market Movers

  • The Germany Industrial Production report, Eurozone trade data, UK Inflation data, Basel Committee Meeting, (KFT) investor day and the (MFC) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Thursday, September 06, 2012

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Global Central Bank Action/Stimulus Hopes, Less Eurozone Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Investor Performance Angst


Broad Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 15.93 -10.20%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 -21.77%
  • Total Put/Call .85 -6.59%
  • NYSE Arms .33 -61.56%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 95.35 bps -5.1%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 215.91 bps -7.21%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 210.86 -3.98%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 223.53 -5.11%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 16.5 unch.
  • TED Spread 30.25 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -26.5 +4.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .11% +1 basis point
  • Yield Curve 141.0 +6 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $87.0/Metric Tonne +.35%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.50 +7.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 +2 basis points
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +161 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my Retail/Medical/Tech/Biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short, then added them back
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Today's Headlines


Bloomberg:
  • Draghi Says Officials Agree on ECB Unlimited Bond-Buying. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy makers agreed to an unlimited bond- purchase program to regain control of interest rates in the euro area and fight speculation of a currency breakup. The program “will enable us to address severe distortions in government bond markets which originate from, in particular, unfounded fears on the part of investors of the reversibility of the euro,” Draghi said at a press conference in Frankfurt after the ECB held its benchmark rate at a record low of 0.75 percent. “Under appropriate conditions, we will have a fully effective backstop to avoid destructive scenarios with potentially severe challenges for price stability in the euro area.” “Governments must stand ready to activate the EFSF/ESM in the bond market when exceptional financial-market circumstances and risks to financial stability exist -- with strict and effective conditionality,” Draghi said. The ECB reserves the right to terminate bond purchases if governments don’t fulfil their part of the bargain, he added.
  • Weidmann Says ECB Bond Plan 'Tantamount' to State Financing. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann criticized the European Central Bank’s bond-buying plan, saying it is “tantamount to financing governments by printing banknotes.” “Monetary policy risks being subjugated to fiscal policy,” Weidmann said in a statement issued by the Frankfurt- based Bundesbank today. “The intervention purchases must not be permitted to jeopardize the capability of monetary policy to safeguard price stability in the euro area.” While Weidmann represents Germany, the euro area’s largest economy, he was the only objector on the ECB’s 23-member council, where each national central bank governor has one vote. The Bundesbank, which is required to carry out ECB policy decisions, didn’t say it would stand in the way of bond purchases. “If the adopted bond-purchasing program leads to member states postponing the necessary reforms, this will further undermine confidence in the political leaders’ crisis-resolution capability,” Weidmann said. “The announced interventions in the government bond market carry the additional danger that the central bank may ultimately redistribute considerable risks among various countries’ taxpayers,” Weidmann said. “Such risk-sharing, however, can be legitimately authorized solely by democratically elected parliaments and governments.”
  • CSU's Michelbach Says ECB Is Buying Potential Future Inflation. The ECB's main task of ensuring price stability is increasingly taking a back seat, Hans Michelbach, a lawmaker from Merkel coalition partner CSU said. The ECB shouldn't become a bad bank for indebted nations, he said. The pressure on indebted nations will only ease if reforms lead to the consolidation of national finances.
  • Euro Region’s Contraction Led by Consumers, Investment: Economy. Europe’s economy was pushed into a contraction in the second quarter as consumers cut spending and corporate investment slumped. Gross domestic product in the 17-member euro area fell 0.2 percent from the first quarter, the European Union’s statistics office said, confirming an initial estimate published on Aug. 14. Gross fixed capital formation dropped 0.8 percent from the previous three months, when it fell 1.3 percent, while consumer spending was down 0.2 percent. Government-spending growth slowed to 0.1 percent from 0.2 percent. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development called today on officials to do more to tackle the region’s debt crisis, which will continue to weigh on growth and confidence. “The slowdown will persist if leaders fail to address the main cause of this deterioration, which is the continuing crisis in the euro area,” said OECD Chief Economist Pier Carlo Padoan. “Resolving the euro area’s banking, fiscal and competitiveness problems is still the key to recovery.
  • French Unemployment Jumps, Increasing Pressure For Growth Push. French unemployment rose to a 13-year high in the second quarter as companies cut staff to cope with a stalled economy, adding pressure on President Francois Hollande to fulfil a campaign pledge to revive growth. The jobless rate based on International Labor Organization standards climbed to 10.2 percent of the population from 10 percent in the previous three months, national statistics office Insee in Paris said today. With neighboring Spain and Italy in recession, the French economy has failed to expand for three quarters, and companies from PSA Peugeot Citroen (UG) to Air France-KLM Group are eliminating thousands of jobs. Labor Minister Michel Sapin said this week that jobless claims have already surpassed 3 million, a level last reached in August 1999, and will increase further. “The increase in unemployment in France since the spring of 2011 is very worrying,” Natixis economists Patrick Artus and Jean-Christophe Caffet said in a note to clients before the release of the latest numbers. “The labor market hasn’t stopped deteriorating.”
  • China’s Goal of 10% Trade Growth Drifts Out of Reach. Chinese toy merchant Pan Junping says this is usually among his busiest times as customers in the U.S. and Europe load up on orders for Christmas. This year, he’s quieter than ever. “The situation is possibly worse than 2009, and confidence is zero,” said Pan, 39, who’s frozen salaries and expects a 30 percent decline in annual sales for his trading company in Yiwu city, in the eastern province of Zhejiang. “It’s not busy at all.” A report due Sept. 10 may show a 2.9 percent gain in exports in August from a year earlier, down from an average 18 percent growth over the past two years, based on the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.
  • Volume Seen Falling Most Since 1988 After August Slump: Options. U.S. options trading is poised for the biggest annual drop since 1988 as easing monetary policies worldwide reduced demand for protection against stock losses. The number of option contracts changing hands fell 13% to 2.7 billion during the first eight months of 2012, including a 43% slump in August, according to data compiled by Chicago-based Options Clearing Corp. Should the pace continue, that would end nine consecutive years of rising volume and mark the second-biggest drop since OCC data began in 1973. "There are few participants who believe downside protection in any great magnitude is needed right now," Randy Frederick, managing director for active trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab in Austin, said in a phone interview.
  • Oil Surges on Bigger-Than-Expected Supply Drop. Oil futures maintained gains after a U.S. government report showed a bigger-than-expected decline in inventories. Supplies fell 7.43 million barrels to 357.1 million barrels last week, the Energy Department said today. Inventories were forecast to decline 4.95 million barrels, according to the median of 12 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg survey. Crude oil for October delivery advanced $1.76, or 1.8 percent, to $97.12 a barrel at 11:06 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
  • Services In U.S. Expanded More Than Forecast In August. Service industries in the U.S. expanded in August at a faster pace than forecast, offering support to an economy that lost momentum in the first half of the year. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index climbed to a three-month high of 53.7 from 52.6 in July, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today. Readings above 50 signal expansion, and economists projected 52.5 for August, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
  • Consumer Comfort Gauge Signal Severe Discontent For Fifth Consecutive Week. Consumer confidence in the U.S. was little changed last week, hovering near an eight-month low, as Americans struggled with rising gasoline prices and elevated unemployment. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index was at minus 46.5 in the period ended Sept. 2 compared with minus 47.3 in the prior week. It was the fifth consecutive week the index has registered a reading lower than minus 40, a level typically associated with severe economic discontent. A ninth consecutive weekly advance brought gasoline prices to the highest level in four months, giving households reason to be concerned about their finances. The dreary views are prompting retailers and manufacturers such as General Motors Co. (GM) to use promotions to entice customers. “Despite very aggressive discounting from retailers and General Motors that have bolstered retail sales, households remain quite pessimistic on the state of the economy and their own personal finances,” said Joseph Brusuelas, a senior economist with Bloomberg LP in New York. The personal finances gauge dropped to minus 13.5 last week from minus 12.7. The number of consumers who say their budgets were in “poor” shape, the most negative rating, climbed to 23 percent, its highest since November. The average cost of a gallon of regular gasoline climbed to $3.83 last week, up 50 cents since July 1 and the highest since late April, according to figures from AAA, the largest U.S. auto group. The Comfort Index for Women fell to -50.7, while the Comfort Index for Men rose to -43.7.
  • Women Failing to Get Hired in U.S. Cost-conscious households are one reason employment in the childcare industry has dropped 1.8 percent since the recession ended June 2009, even as total U.S. payrolls increased 2.1 percent. Jobs in the sector hover at levels of five years ago as unemployed parents watch their children at home, states cut childcare subsidies and the birth rate is at a 12-year low. The industry’s challenges reflect those facing the U.S. labor market, which has seen 42 consecutive months of unemployment above 8 percent and disproportionate joblessness among women. As of June 2012, men have regained 46.2 percent of the jobs they lost since the start of the recession, compared to 38.7 percent for women, according to the Institute for Women’s Policy Research, in Washington D.C., which analyzes payroll data.
  • ADP Says U.S. Companies Added 201,000 Workers in August. The 201,000 increase in employment, the biggest gain in five months, followed July’s revised 173,000 rise, Roseland, New Jersey-based ADP Employer Services said today. The median forecast of 41 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for an advance of 140,000.
  • Gold Rises to Highest Since March as Euro Advances on ECB. Gold futures rose to the highest since March as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy makers agreed to an unlimited bond-purchase program to help stabilize the region, boosting demand for the metal as a store of value. Gold futures for December delivery gained 0.6 percent to $1,703.50 an ounce at 9:59 a.m. on the Comex in New York, after earlier jumping to $1,716.90, the highest for a most-active contract since March 12. Gold will be at $1,840 by the end of 2012, Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview today.
  • JPMorgan(JPM) Said to Face Escalating Senate Probe of CIO Loss. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s (JPM) wrong-way bets on derivatives are the focus of an escalating probe by a U.S. Senate panel led by Carl Levin that has grilled executives from banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and HSBC Holdings Plc, three people briefed on the inquiry said. Levin’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations is seeking testimony from people who worked in or helped lead JPMorgan’s chief investment office, according to the people, who declined to be identified because the inquiry isn’t public. The unit’s London staff lost at least $5.8 billion this year on the botched bets, which were large enough to shift markets.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Democrats Hint at Showdown With GOP After Election. Top White House and Senate officials at the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C., offered new clues Thursday about their strategy heading into the lame-duck session of Congress after the November election, suggesting they plan on a showdown with Republicans over tax and spending policy.
  • The President's Fountain of Youth Is Drying Up. In 2008 young voters chose Obama over McCain by 66% to 32%. Today he leads Romney by 49% to 41%.
CNBC.com:

Business Insider:

Zero Hedge:

TheStreet.com:

  • US Auto Sales on Road to Next Subprime Bubble. Experian Automotive, a unit of Experian, the credit-rating firm, reported Tuesday that "loans in the nonprime, subprime and deep-subprime risk tiers accounted for more than one in four new-vehicle loans in [the second quarter] of 2012." That was a 14% increase from the same period a year earlier, and it actually exceeded the rate in the second quarter of 2007, before the financial crisis made lenders tighten their standards.

Reuters:

  • Copper ends lower as market digests ECB plan.
  • Monetary tools can't solve fiscal crisis-German FinMin. The euro zone must avoid using monetary policy to tackle its fiscal problems, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Thursday, shortly after the European Central Bank announced plans to buy the debt of struggling governments. "If we start wanting to resolve the problems of financial policy through the more convenient means of monetary policy, we will have a problem," Schaeuble said at an award ceremony in honour of ECB president Mario Draghi. "Central banks are autonomous so that the more convenient path of printing money is barred to politicians," he added.
  • Football blitzes Bill Clinton speech in TV match-up. Some 21 million Americans watched the National Football League's season kickoff game on NBC between the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants on Wednesday night, dwarfing the 7.5 million who watched Clinton's lengthy, humorous and detail-heavy address on the ABC and CBS networks, according to Nielsen data.
  • Spain's Rajoy plays waiting game on bailout. Spain's Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy showed no rush on Thursday to seek a bailout that would come with bitter conditions for his recession-gripped country under a new European Central Bank plan to bring relief to struggling euro zone members.
  • UK tells banks to cut exposure to euro breakup risk. Britain's top banks have tens of billions of euros in exposure to the risk of countries leaving the euro or the currency union breaking up entirely, despite intense pressure from the UK financial regulator to tackle the problem. This "redenomination risk" is evident at Santander UK, Royal Bank of Scotland and Barclays, although much of it has been hedged, according to data published by the banks in response to the regulator's demands.

Telegraph:

POP TV:

  • Slovenian Banks' Bad Loans Soar to $3.4 Billion. Bad loans at two of Slovenia's biggest banks, Nova Ljubljanska Banka d.d. and Nova Kreditna Banka Maribor d.d. soared to 2.7 billion euros ($3.4 billion), citing a leaked a report by the country's central bank.

Bear Radar


Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +1.67%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Disk Drives +.25% 2) REITs +.75% 3) HMOs +.83%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • PAY, INWK, NCMI, TNGO, AVAV, TEO, CCOI, BBEP, EEP, NTE, LAYN, VCLT, WCRX, WWW, MKTX, AVAV, HITK, ABM, EEQ, GWRE, KFY, WAG, YELP, BPT, STX, DG, TFM and CEB
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) DHI 2) URI 3) NAV 4) LULU 5) RAX
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) MKTX 2) STX 3) WWW 4) JPM 5) SCCO
Charts:

Bull Radar


Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Value +1.97%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Semis +2.91% 2) Networking +2.71% 3) Papers +2.32%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • DB, BCS, SYMC, E, MW, NAV, SNDK, SHLD, OI, MTW, SHLD, FSLR, STI, VMED and CTXS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) SAN 2) SYMC 3) NWSA 4) EDU 5) NAV
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) CCE 2) AIG 3) ADP 4) ALK 5) CSCO
Charts:

Thursday Watch


Evening Headlin
es
Bloomb
erg:
  • Draghi Credibility at Stake as ECB Tries to Save The Euro. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s task today is straight-forward: produce a plan to save the euro. Draghi pledged more than a month ago to do what’s needed to preserve the single currency; now he’s under pressure to follow through with details of a bond-purchase plan to lower borrowing costs in Spain and Italy and prevent a breakup of Europe’s monetary union. Expectations have built to such an extent that Draghi risks losing credibility unless he delivers at a press conference after today’s Governing Council meeting in Frankfurt, economists and investors said. “Draghi has put his credibility squarely on the line,” said Julian Callow, chief European economist at Barclays Capital in London. “He has made it his business to save the euro, so he is going to be called on that.” Draghi told the European Parliament this week that the ECB needs to intervene in bond markets to wrest back control of interest rates in a fragmented euro-area economy and save the currency, according to a recording of a closed-door session obtained by Bloomberg News. His blueprint, sent to council members just two days ago and opposed by Germany’s Bundesbank, proposes unlimited buying of government debt with maturities of up to about three years, two central bank officials said yesterday on condition of anonymity. Rate Cut? Draghi will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m., 45 minutes after the ECB announces its interest-rate decision. Economists are split over whether policy makers will lower the benchmark rate to a new record low, with 30 of 58 in a Bloomberg survey predicting a quarter-point cut to 0.5 percent and 28 forecasting no change.
  • VeriFone(PAY) Falls as Quarterly Revenue Misses Estimates. VeriFone Systems Inc. (PAY) tumbled in late trading after the maker of credit-card terminals reported third-quarter sales that fell short of analysts’ estimates, citing unfavorable currency swings, competitive pressure in Europe and a fire in Brazil. The shares of San Jose, California-based VeriFone dropped as much as 17 percent to $29.50 after closing at $35.38 in New York. The stock had declined less than 1 percent this year.
  • Iron Ore Will Drop to $50/ton Long Term, Andy Xie Says. Xie keeps forecast that ore will hit %50/t, probably before mid-2013, and stay down permanently, according the economist. Any rebound will be small, temporary because of high short-term steel inventory, lack of long-term growth prospects. Steel production is still rising, while demand declines as Chinese local govts resist production cuts, arrange financing to keep mills in their cities producing; "This story will come to a crashing end," he said. Steel, ore won't bottom until production stops, inventory is liquidated and "you see some bankruptcies in the steel industry." Steel demand unlikely to grow as construction of highways, railroads, properties has peaked; car market will probably see single-digit growth.
  • Citigroup(C), Goldman(GS), UBS(UBS) Sued Over Mortgage-Backed Bonds. Citigroup Inc. (C), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and UBS AG (UBSN) were sued separately in New York over losses on $368.7 million in mortgage-backed securities. The three banks made “material misrepresentations” about the loans backing the securities and about the transfer of the loans into trusts, according to filings today in New York State Supreme Court.
  • Chinese Solar-Panel Exporters Face Threat of EU Tariffs. The European Union threatened to impose tariffs on solar panels from China in the wake of similar U.S. trade protection, saying EU producers may be victims of unfair price undercutting. The EU opened a probe into whether Chinese manufacturers of solar panels sell them in the 27-nation bloc below cost, a practice known as dumping. The inquiry covers crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules or panels and cells and wafers used in them. At stake is whether European competitors such as Solarworld AG, Germany’s largest maker of the renewable-energy technology, win levies to counter growing competition from China. The investigation will determine whether solar panels from China are “being dumped and whether the dumped imports have caused injury to the union industry,” the European Commission, the EU’s trade authority in Brussels, said today in the Official Journal.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Europe Outlook Dims as Bank Meets. Downturn Deepened Over Summer, Complicating Choice for ECB Officials.
  • U.S. Competitiveness Slips. Northern European countries topped the overall ranking of a global competitiveness report released Wednesday by the World Economic Forum, as the United States slipped for the fourth year in a row. "In addition to the burgeoning macroeconomic vulnerabilities, some aspects of the country's [United States] institutional environment continue to raise concern among business leaders, particularly the low public trust in politicians and a perceived lack of government efficiency," said the WEF, a think tank that also hosts the annual meeting of global business and political leaders in the Alpine town of Davos, Switzerland.
  • Retiree Health Costs Rising. State and local governments in New York will have to come up with an additional quarter of a trillion dollars to pay the entire tab for retiree health care, according to a new report. The $250 billion bill for retiree health coverage is up from $210 billion two years ago, said the study issued by the Empire Center for New York State Policy on Wednesday. Referred to as "other post-employment benefits," or OPEB, the unfunded obligations represent a troubling strain on budgets.
  • Desperately Seeking Middle-Class Taxes. What Obama's critique of Ryan tells us about Obama's budget plans. Democrats in Charlotte are pounding away at the savage budget cuts that Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan supposedly favor and their phantom plan for "raising taxes on the middle class," as President Obama puts it. The truth is the opposite, but table that for a moment. The President seems not to realize his critique is really a scorching if implicit indictment of his own time in office.

Business Insider:

Zero Hedge:

CNBC:

  • US Will Go Over the 'Fiscal Cliff': Orszag. The U.S. will go over the fiscal cliff early next year before a deal gets cut in January to address the country’s fiscal problems, Peter Orszag, a former Obama administration official and current vice chairman at Citigroup, told CNBC’s "Closing Bell" on Wednesday. “I think what's going to happen is probably early next year, not late, next year, you will have a big fiscal deal that gets cut,” he said.
  • World Bank Appoints Chief Economist From India.

NY Times:

ABC News:

  • Secret Service Investigating Purported Ransom of Mitt Romney’s Tax Returns. Someone claims to have stolen years of Mitt Romney’s tax returns from a Tennessee office of the financial firm PricewaterhouseCoopers, and the Secret Service is investigating what appears to be a ransom scheme. The local Democratic and Republican parties in Williamson County, Tenn., where the PricewaterhouseCoopers office is located, both received packages, each containing a thumb drive and a letter outlining a competitive-bidding ransom scheme that appears designed to pit Republicans and Democrats against each other over the release of Romney’s taxes.
CNN:
  • U.S. debt $417 billion below the debt ceiling. The debt ceiling is currently set at $16.394 trillion. At the end of August, the amount of debt subject to that limit -- which excludes certain types of debt -- was $15.977 trillion, roughly $417 billion below the cap. Since the government typically borrows between $100 billion and $125 billion a month, that means it's on track to hit the ceiling sometime in December. But the Treasury Department will likely be able to use "extraordinary measures" to keep the debt just below the legal limit for a couple of months. Bottom line: Congress will likely need to raise the ceiling in early 2013 or Treasury will risk defaulting on the country's legal obligations by failing to pay all of its bills in full and on time.
Rasmussen Reports:
  • Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 45% of the vote. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
Reuters:
  • Romney raps Obama over growing debt, food stamp record. Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney blasted U.S. President Barack Obama over the size of the national debt and the record number of Americans on food stamps, in a jab on the eve of a major speech by the Democrat. Romney said "two big numbers out this week" prove that Americans are not better off than when Obama took office in 2009. "We've gone from $10 trillion that the president inherited from all prior presidents to $16 trillion," Romney told reporters in the swing state of New Hampshire. The Treasury Department this week announced that the public debt had surpassed $16 trillion. "The other number's forty-seven. Forty-seven million now on food stamps. When he came to office there were 32 million. He's added 15 million people," Romney said. He was referring to an Agriculture Department report on Tuesday that showed the number of people on food stamps jumped to a record high of 46.7 million in June.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 149.0 -1.5 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 122.0 unch.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.29%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.22%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.20%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (COO)/1.29
  • (ULTA)/.51
  • (MFRM)/.28
  • (NAV)/-1.41
  • (HOV)/-.14
Economic Releases
8:15 am EST

  • ADP Employment Change for August is estimated to fall to 140K versus 163K in July.

8:30 am EST

  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 370K versus 374K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 3315K versus 3316K prior.

10:00 am EST

  • ISM Non-Manufacturing for August is estimated to fall to 52.5 versus 52.6 in July.

11:00 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -4,950,000 barrels versus a +3,778,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to fall by -1,550,000 barrels versus a +873,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline inventories are estimated to fall by -3,000,000 barrels versus a -1,509,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -1.5% versus unch. the prior week.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

  • The ECB rate decision, Spanish/French bond auctions, Eurozone GDP data, Challenger Job Cuts report for August, ICSC Chain Store Sales report for August, BoE rate decision, Australia trade data, OECD economic outlook, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, (SYK) analyst meeting and the (QLGC) analyst day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.