Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Higher
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
- Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 12.63 -3.14%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 148.72 +.01%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.02 -.11%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.12 -.81%
- ISE Sentiment Index 199.0 +61.8%
- Total Put/Call .55 -9.84%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.42 -.56%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 85.62 -.09%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 60.75 -.16%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 267.28 +.68%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 10.0 +.75 basis point
- TED Spread 18.0 -.5 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% +1 basis point
- Yield Curve 258.0 +4.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $132.0/Metric Tonne +.08%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 48.4 +3.5 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.40 +.7 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19 +2 basis points
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +85 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech sector longs and index hedges
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Biotech -.50% 2) Internet -.44% 3) I-Banking -.40%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- CAMP, TXTR, DL, DDD, CME, AMBA, AGIO, SSYS, SWIR, BIND, YRCW, NFJ, ZLTQ, QIWI, NDLS, AAON and FB
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) OAS 2) CRUS 3) SSYS 4) MDT 5) TWTR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) GM 2) TGT 3) DDD 4) BIDU 5) SINA
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Gaming +1.39% 2) Gold & Silver +1.17% 3) Homebuilders +1.19%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) SPG 2) MWW 3) UPL 4) CHTP 5) NIHD
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) BA 2) AAPL 3) PCU 4) AXP 5) FB
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Starbucks(SBUX) to Audi Face China Clampdown on Foreign Firms. As Chinese President Xi Jinping promises the nation’s
biggest market opening in two decades, the reality for some of the most
successful foreign companies in the country is a raft of probes and laws
that curb their operations. This month, after China’s ruling
Communist Party promised to make markets “decisive” in shaping the
world’s second-largest economy, carmakers Jaguar Land Rover Automotive
Plc, Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd. (7270)’s Subaru division and Audi AG
became the latest targets when state media accused them of charging
“unfair” prices for spare parts.
- PBOC’s Opacity Leaves Markets Guessing Amid Cash Crunch. China’s
second cash crunch this year is revealing some of the risks behind
pledges by the nation’s leaders to elevate the role of markets, in a
country where policy makers are unaccustomed to detailing their
intentions.
- Beijing Warns Against Outdoor Activities on Heavily Polluted Air. Beijing warned the young, elderly
and ill among its 20 million inhabitants to stay indoors as air
pollution exceeded World Health Organization-recommended levels
by more than 10 times today. The concentration of PM2.5, fine air
particulates that pose
the greatest health risk, was 260 micrograms per cubic meter at
10 a.m. near Tiananmen Square, compared with an average of 188 over the
past 24 hours, the Beijing Municipal Environmental Monitoring Center
said on its website. The WHO recommends 24-hour exposure to PM2.5
concentrations no higher than 25
micrograms per cubic meter.
- Most Asian Stocks Climb on U.S.
Most Asian stocks gained after data showed the U.S. economic recovery
gaining momentum and as Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average topped 16,000
for the first time in six years. Energy shares rose the most among the
MSCI Asia Pacific Index sectors, while consumer staples led declines.
Mitsubishi Motors Corp. jumped 4.8 percent after the Japanese carmaker
raised its operating-profit forecast. Agricultural Bank of China Ltd.,
the nation’s third-biggest lender, gained 1.3 percent as China’s central
bank acted to ease a cash crunch. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.1 percent to 139.33 as of 11:57 a.m. in Tokyo, with about two shares rising for each
that fell.
- Rebar Rises From Four-Week Low as China Vows to Curb Pollution.
Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai climbed for the first time
in nine days after state media reported China would halt new steel plant
projects and take stricter measures to curb air pollution. Rebar for May delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose as much as 0.4 percent to 3,627 yuan ($597) a metric ton,
and traded at 3,621 yuan at 10 a.m. local time. The most-active
contract yesterday closed at 3,612 yuan a ton, the lowest level
since Nov. 21.
- Rubber in Tokyo Drops to Two-Week Low as China Stockpiles Jump.
Rubber futures fell to a two-week
low after data showed stockpiles in biggest-consumer China expanded and
shipments from Vietnam jumped, raising speculation supply may grow
faster than demand. The contract for delivery in May on the Tokyo Commodity
Exchange declined as much as 2.8 percent to 275 yen a kilogram
($2,635 a metric ton), the lowest level since Dec. 6, and traded
at 276 yen at 10:41 a.m. local time. The drop expanded losses
this year to 8.8 percent.
- Fed’s Fisher Says He Argued for $20 Billion Taper to Asset Buys. Federal
Reserve Bank of Dallas
President Richard Fisher, who will be a voting member of the
policy-setting committee next year, said he argued for a $20 billion
reduction in the Fed’s monthly bond purchasing pace instead of the $10
billion announced last week. “The market could have digested that,”
he said in an interview with Fox Business Network today. The Federal
Open Market Committee announced on Dec. 18 that
it would dial back its monthly bond purchases to $75 billion
from $85 billion on signs of an improved labor market. Fisher
has been among the most vocal critics of the so-called
quantitative easing program that began in September 2012 and has
been calling for an early slowdown to the purchases.
Wall Street Journal:
- Merkel Hits Wall With Europe Fix. Angela Merkel's Signature Project Is Floundering a Week Into the German Chancellor's Third Term.
Angela Merkel's signature project for the next four
years—re-engineering the euro zone—is floundering just a week into the
German chancellor's third
term. Other European governments, wary
of Berlin's growing dominance in the region, are blocking a proposal by
Ms. Merkel that would grant the European Union's executive arm direct
oversight of members' economic policies. The
standoff, which is unlikely to be resolved in the short term, leaves
the euro zone without a strategy for the far-reaching overhauls that
governments in the currency bloc had previously insisted were vital for
the euro's survival.
Fox News:
- US sending Marines to Africa in preparation for evacuations in South Sudan. The U.S. military is sending Marines and aircraft to the Horn of
Africa in anticipation they may be needed to respond to the violence in
South Sudan, Fox News confirms.
A senior U.S. Defense official told Fox News that 150 Marines are
being moved from Moron, Spain, to Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti, in case
the State Department asks for their assistance in evacuating U.S.
citizens left in South Sudan.
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC:
- ABA threatens to sue regulators over Volcker Rule. The
American Bankers Association said it will file a lawsuit challenging
the Volcker Rule unless regulators agree to suspend portions that
restrict certain collateralized debt obligations of trust-preferred
securities, American Banker reported Monday.
- As the clock ticks, retail traffic continues slide. Brick-and-mortar retailers saw no signs of relief last week, as
store traffic in the final week before Christmas posted the third
straight week of double-digit declines, according to the most recent
report from ShopperTrak. According to the analytics firm,
traffic for the week ended Dec. 22—which included the crucial final
weekend before Christmas—was down 21.2 percent year over year. The first
two weeks of December saw double-digit decreases, which trailed a 4
percent decline over Black Friday weekend, it said. In-store sales fell 3.1 percent from the same week in 2012, ShopperTrak added.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
- The Biggest Financial Story In The World Is Playing Out Right Now In China. Patrick Chovanec, chief strategist at Silvercrest Asset Management, told Business Insider in a telephone interview, that China's financial system has "high blood pressure." He said China's interbank lending
market is "a petri dish of risk," and that this is the most important
financial story this holiday season. Here are some key points from our interview with Chovanec:
Washington Post:
The Blaze:
Reuters:
- Exclusive: Assad's secret oil lifeline: Iraqi crude from Egypt. The Syrian
government of President Bashar al-Assad has received substantial imports
of Iraqi crude oil from an Egyptian port in the last nine months,
shipping and payments documents show, part of an under-the-radar trade
that has kept his military running despite Western sanctions.
Assad's government has
been blacklisted by Western powers for its role in the two-and-a-half
year civil war, forcing Damascus to rely on strategic ally Iran - itself
the target of Western sanctions over its nuclear program - as its main
supplier of crude oil.
Telegraph:
Japan Daily Press:
- China strongly criticizes Japan on increased military spending plans. China
has criticized Japan’s move to boost military spending and accused the
country of using regional tensions and disputes as an “excuse” to
bolster defense capabilities. This after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his cabinet members approved
spending of 24.7 trillion yen ($240 billion) from 2014 to 2019,
increasing the military budget by 5% over a period of 5 years.
Shanghai Securities News:
- China Central, Western Govt Debt Riskier. China's local
government debt in central and western regions has higher risks than in
eastern regions, citing Li Yang, vice president at Chinese Academy of
Social Sciences.
China Securities Journal:
- BOC Researcher Sees 2014 Liquidity Not Optimistic. China's
liquidity outlook in 2014 isn't optimistic, and the central bank should
"appropriately" cut banks' reserve requirement ratio 1-2 times, citing
Bank of China researcher Wen Bin.
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are unch. to +.75% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 122.0 -.5 basis point.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 103.0 +1.25 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Durable Goods Orders for November is estimated to rise +2.0% versus a -2.0% decline in October.
- Durables Ex Transports for November is estimated to rise +.7% versus a -.1% decline in October.
- Cap Goods Orders Non-defense Ex-Air for November is estimated to rise +.7% versus a -1.2% decline in October.
9:00 am EST
- The House Price Index for October is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.3% gain in September.
10:00 am EST
- New Home Sales for November are estimated to fall to 440K versus 444K in October.
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for December is estimated to fall to 10.0 versus 13.0 in November.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The BoJ economic report, weekly retail sales reports and the weekly MBA mortgage applications report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity
and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open
modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The
Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Higher
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 13.19 -4.35%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 148.58 +.11%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.01 -1.1%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.93 -1.03%
- ISE Sentiment Index 133.0 -30.73%
- Total Put/Call .64 -13.51%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.22 -1.99%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 85.70 -1.87%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 60.85 +.85%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 265.20 -.90%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 9.25 +1.25 basis points
- TED Spread 18.5 -1.25 basis points
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% +1 basis point
- Yield Curve 254.0 +3.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $131.90/Metric Tonne -.60%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.9 -2.1 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.1 +.9 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 +1 basis point
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +255 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- China Money Rates Surge as Banks Struggle to Meet Demand.
China’s benchmark money-market rate climbed for a seventh day and
interest-rate swaps increased as banks hoarded cash to meet year-end
regulatory requirements. The seven-day repurchase rate, a gauge of
funding availability in the banking system, jumped 124 basis points
today to 8.84 percent, the highest level since June 20,
according to a daily fixing from the National Interbank Funding
Center. The rate, which has more than doubled from 4.37 percent
in the past week, touched a record 10.77 percent in June.
- China Steps Up Graft Crackdown Targeting Ministers to Chiefs. Chinese authorities are stepping up
a crackdown on corruption, including confiscating the passports
of some local leaders, in moves that underscore President Xi Jinping’s determination to root out graft. Vice Minister of Public Security Li Dongsheng became the
second member of the Communist Party’s central committee to be
probed this year for suspected corruption. The capital of
southern Guangdong province told 2,014 village chiefs to hand in
their passports to prevent corrupt local officials from fleeing
abroad, the Guangzhou Daily reported. Targeting those Xi has described as both “tigers and
flies” -- cadres at the top and bottom of the power ladder --
may help bolster the party’s image as economic expansion slows
and public discontent over corruption increases.
- Central Bank Chiefs to Weigh Debt Rule Changes Amid Bank Outcry. Central bankers from around the
world will meet next month to discuss whether to scale back
their plans for a debt limit that banks say will force them to
rein in lending. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has said that
central bank and regulatory chiefs will meet in Basel in January “to
come to an agreement, an international agreement, on the
definition” of the debt-limit rule, known as a leverage ratio.
The meeting will take place on Jan. 12, according to three
people with knowledge of the plans. Banks such as BNP Paribas SA (BNP),
Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. (C) have called for a rewrite
of the draft leverage rule published in June, saying it would adversely
affect economic growth and job creation, make it more expensive for
governments to sell their debt and give banks incentives to
invest in riskier assets.
- Italy Approves ‘Google(GOOG) Tax’ on Internet Companies.
Italy’s Parliament today passed a
new tax on web advertising, the so-called “Google tax,” which will
require Internet companies to sell ads from locally-registered
companies, instead of from units based in havens such as Ireland, Luxembourg and Bermuda. The tax has stirred controversy, with some lawyers saying
it probably violates European Union laws regarding non-discrimination over commercial activity and could be subject to
legal challenges.
- European Stocks Climb on IMF Outlook.
European stocks advanced, posting the biggest four-day rally since
April, after the International Monetary Fund said it will raise its U.S.
growth outlook. ARM Holdings Plc, which designs chips for Apple Inc.
(AAPL)’s iPhones, increased 3.9 percent as the U.S. company struck a
deal to sell the smartphone through China Mobile Ltd. Lanxess AG rose
4.4 percent after its chief executive officer said the chemical maker
will reach its full-year earnings forecast. Orell Fuessli Holding AG
declined 2.2 percent after predicting “clearly negative” earnings for
2013. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 0.7 percent to 323.40 at the close of trading in London.
- Junk Loans Top ’08 Record as Safeguards Stripped: Credit Markets.
“The worst deals are made in the best of times is a phrase we hear
often,” Frank Ossino, a money manager in Hartford, Connecticut, who
oversees $2.5 billion of loans at Newfleet Asset Management LLC, said in
a telephone interview. “While the
default environment will remain low, ever more aggressive
transactions become the seeds of the next default cycle.”
Wall Street Journal:
- Margin Debt Hits Yet Another New High. Investors borrowed another record amount against their brokerage
accounts in November, as so-called margin debt rose for a sixth straight
month. Last month, investors borrowed $423.7 billion against their
portfolios, exceeding October’s record of $412.4 billion, according to
the New York Stock Exchange. The Big Board’s member brokerage firms
report the level of borrowing, known as margin debt, held against client
accounts monthly. Margin-debt levels rose 2.7% from the prior month.
MarketWatch:
CNBC:
- Chart of the Day: Obamacare's middle class burden. As the New York Times reported on Saturday, those who just barely
qualify for subsidies under the Affordable Care Act pay a small fraction
of those who just barely do not qualify. In some cases that
difference can be a few hundreds of dollars, but in others — like Polk
County, Wisconsin — the gap can be thousands of dollars.
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider:
CNN:
- CNN Poll: Health care law support drops to all-time low. Only 35% of those questioned in the poll say they support the health
care law, a 5-point drop in less than a month. Sixty-two percent say
they oppose the law, up four points from November. Nearly all of the newfound opposition is coming from women.
NYRB:
Reuters:
Financial Times:
- Europe banks overexposed to domestic debt. The economic fates of European governments and financial institutions
are set to become ever more intertwined next year despite concerns about
the rise of a potentially destabilising “sovereign-bank” nexus.
Telegraph:
Xinhua:
- Chinese
Bankers Pay Close Attention to Local Debt Issues. Chinese bankers are
paying close attention to protection of lender's rights and government
intervention as local government liabilities come due, citing a survey
result from the China Banking Association.
Netease:
- China
Academy Sees Risks From Property Loan, Local Debt. Major risks that
China faces in the near term are in property lending, local debt and
banks' bad loans, citing a report by the Chinese Academy of Social
Sciences. Longer-term risks include overseas assets and corporate debt.
China National Radio:
- China
to Halt Some New Projects to Curb Overcapacity. China will ban new
construction projects in the steel, electrolytic aluminum and cement
industries in the next few years to curb overcapacity, citing Miao Wei,
Minister of Industry and Information Technology.
