Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Global Growth Fears, Fed Rate Hike Concerns, Scotland Independece Worries, Biotech/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Slightly Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.10 +5.94%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 144.82 -.36%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.35 +1.24%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.43 +3.41%

• ISE Sentiment Index 128.0 +5.79%

• Total Put/Call .83. +5.68%

• NYSE Arms .76 -1.05% 

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.95 +1.90%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.62 +3.11%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 28.44 +2.25%
• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 66.46 +3.45%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 254.58 +.99%

• China Blended Corporate Spread Index 308.26 -.21%
• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.25 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 23.0 +.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.75 +.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.

• Yield Curve 204.0 -1.0 basis point

• China Import Iron Ore Spot $85.20/Metric Tonne +3.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.90 -4.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -19.60 -6.7 basis points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13 -1.0 basis point

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei Futures: Indicating -75 open in Japan

• DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM), (QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.81%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Social Media -4.33% 2) Alt Energy -3.82% 3) Biotech -2.32%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

• CTP, TRW, WB, RATE, MZOR, NPSP, TEX, NMM, MDU, MRTN, PLOW, SDRL, TSLA, UVV, TRP, SMLP, BRC, NILE, KWEB, UBNT, OILT, SPCB, KYE, ATVI, DISCK, ARCB, PEIX, ACAD and RATE

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) VLO 2) HFC 3) XHB 4) PHM 5) XLE
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) GM 2) ADS 3) RAX 4) CREE 5) WEX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume

• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.20%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +.62% 2) Energy +.15% 3) Drugs -.04%
  

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AVNR, ALR, TAP, VNET and CLF

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AVNR 2) TRW 3) TAP 4) HALO 5) JBLU

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LMT 2) VHR 3) AVNR 4) YHOO 5) AAPL
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume 

• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.75% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.50 +.5 basis point.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 64.25 +.75 basis point.

• FTSE-100 futures -.27%.

• S&P 500 futures -.35%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.36%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (ALOG)/1.11

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for September is estimated to rise to 16.0 versus 14.69 in August.

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production for August is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in July.
• Capacity Utilization for August is estimated to rise to 79.3% versus 79.2% in July.
• Manufacturing Production for August is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +1.0% gain in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (CYT) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Trade Balance, RBA Minutes and the Morgan Stanely Industrials/Autos Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

Week Ahead by Bloomberg. 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on Russia-Ukraine/Mideast tensions, rising European/Emerging Markets debt angst, global growth worries, Fed rate hike concerns and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.