Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • Russia Link Said Suspected in White House Computer Attack. U.S. cybersecurity specialists suspect that Russian government or criminal hackers were responsible for an attack on an unclassified White House computer system, according to two American officials. It’s not clear whether the attack was carried out by Russian government agents or criminals, the officials said today, speaking on condition of anonymity because they aren’t authorized to speak to the media. The line between agents and criminal hackers is sometimes non-existent, they said. 
  • Mosul’s Children Lured to Islamic State to Swell Ranks. The al-Qaeda breakaway group has lured and coerced hundreds of the city’s youth into joining its ranks, according to an official from the Nineveh province’s education department, who asked to be identified as Abu Marwan for security reasons.
  • Brazil Unexpectedly Lifts Rate on Rousseff Vow to Tame CPI. Brazil unexpectedly raised its key rate for the first time since April, after President Dilma Rousseff said she would vigorously fight inflation (BZPIIPCY) in her second term. Policy makers, led by central bank President Alexandre Tombini, voted 5-to-3 to raise the benchmark Selic by a quarter-point to 11.25 percent, saying the move would reduce the cost of ensuring a better inflation outlook in 2015 and 2016. One of 54 economists surveyed by Bloomberg correctly forecast the increase while the remaining expected the rate to be left unchanged for the fourth straight meeting. 
  • China’s Property Prices May Decline Up to 10%, SouFun Says. China property prices may decline as much as 10 percent this year and the slump may extend into 2015, according to SouFun Holdings Ltd. “Chinese property prices are seeing an adjustment after the rapid increase in the past two years,” Vincent Mo, founder of China’s biggest real estate information website, said in a Bloomberg Television interview with Haslinda Amin in Singapore yesterday. “Prices should stabilize by the middle of next year.” 
  • ICBC Posts Biggest Jump in Bad Loans Since ’06 on Economy. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the world’s largest lender by assets, reported its biggest jump in bad loans since at least 2006 as the property market slumped and the economy cooled. Nonperforming loans rose 9 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months, the Beijing-based bank said in anexchange filing yesterday. Net income gained 7.7 percent from a year earlier to 72.4 billion yuan ($11.8 billion), matching the median analyst estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.
  • Dollar Jumps as Fed Ends Bond Buying While Nickel, Crude Retreat. The dollar climbed to a three-week high after the Federal Reserve judged the U.S. economy strong enough to end its asset-purchase program. Industrial metals and oil fell with Hong Kong stocks. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.1 percent by 11:01 a.m. in Tokyo, with the yen weakening 0.2 percent and Indonesia’s rupiah leading emerging-market currencies lower. Nickel retreated 1 percent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil slid 0.4 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 0.3 percent after its biggest two-day rally in seven months.
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Democrats Crash-Land the Planet. Republicans are hammering Democrats with the wrecked world their priorities created. Want to know how to really scare a Democratic candidate for Congress on Halloween? Forget the Sarah Palin mask. Don’t say “Boo!” Just slip up behind them and whisper, “national security.” They’ll jump from here into next week’s election.
Fox News:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
  • NASA explosion fuels concerns about Russian engines, oversight. The explosion of an Orbital Science Corp supply rocket over Virginia could accelerate U.S. efforts to replace aging Russian space technology with a pricey homegrown rocket engine. Even before the crash on Tuesday, Orbital had planned to switch to another engine for future launches, given the age of Soviet-era motors now in use as well as uncertainty about future supplies.
  • U.S. prosecutors reopen probes against several big banks -NYT. U.S. prosecutors are reopening investigations into big banks on suspicion they may have violated agreements under which the institutions settled prior cases against them, The New York Times reported, citing lawyers briefed with the matter. With the settlements, the banks avoided criminal prosecution and instead paid fines and implemented reforms. Among the banks named in the report were Standard Chartered Plc and Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 111.0 unch.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 64.25 -.5 basis point.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.08%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  +.07%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (APD)/1.61
  • (ABC)/1.05
  • (MDC)/.50
  • (PBI)/.46
  • (LLL)/1.84
  • (STRA)/.18
  • (COP)/1.21
  • (CME)/.82
  • (ATK)/2.94
  • (AVP)/.16
  • (MA)/.78
  • (DBD)/.50
  • (CI)/1.83
  • (BG)/1.90
  • (MOS)/.58
  • (JCI)/1.00
  • (MO)/.68
  • (AMT)/1.07
  • (CAH)/.96
  • (K)/.92
  • (SBUX)/.74
  • (GPRO)/.08
  • (NEM)/.16
  • (MHK)/2.42
  • (SPF)/.15
  • (LNKD)/.47
  • (MCHP)/.67
  • (FLR)/1.10
  • (PPS)/.45
  • (EXPE)/1.74
  • (PSA)/2.06
  • (CSC)/1.01
Economic Releases
10:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 285K versus 283K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 2352K versus 2351K prior.
  • 3Q GDP is estimated to rise 3.0% versus a +4.6% gain in 2Q.
  • 3Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +1.9% versus a +2.5% gain in 2Q.
  • 3Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +1.4% versus a +2.1% gain in 2Q.
  • 3Q Core PCE QoQ is estimated to rise +1.4% versus a +2.0% gain in 2Q.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Yellen speaking, Japan CPI, German unemployment data, $35B 7Y T-Note auction, (JNPR) investor day, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Fed Rate Hike Worries, Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Eurozone/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Homebuilding/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.32 +6.46%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.62 -.09%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.33 +.83%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.67 +3.87%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 -3.26%
  • Total Put/Call 1.0 +1.01%
  • NYSE Arms 1.06 +39.13% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.02 +2.43%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.31 +2.10%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 32.40 -1.49%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 63.92 -1.35%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 251.43 +.87%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 330.78 -.86%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 21.5 -4.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 22.25 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.25 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.
  • Yield Curve 183.0 -7.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $79.09/Metric Tonne -.16%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.50 -.5 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -37.3 +1.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.80 +.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.92 +1.0 basis point
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +71 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -14 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value -.06%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) HMOs +1.52% 2) Energy +.95% 3) Oil Service +.69%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • RGLS, SWI, AMED, EA, GT, NFX, MWA, CEB, GPRE, X, BAS, SN, TQNT, CJES and TSS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) VRX 2) ARCP 3) ACAS 4) WMGI 5) INVN
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) RL  2) HES 3) WLP 4) AMGN 5) COP
Charts:

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines 
Bloomberg:
  • Ukraine Seeks Russia Gas Deal After Pro-Europe Poll Win. Ukraine resumes talks with Russia on securing winter gas supplies after voters in the war-torn country overwhelmingly elected pro-European parties to power. Ukrainian Energy Minister Yuri Prodan is meeting his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak in Brussels today in talks brokered by EU Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger. Ukraine and the European Union are seeking to avoid a repeat of 2006 and 2009, when disputes over volumes and prices prompted Russian gas exporter OAO Gazprom (GAZP) to cut flows, leading to shortages across the continent amid freezing temperatures.
  • China Shadow Banking Shifted to Insurers Alarms Moody’s. A doubling in the trust holdings of China’s insurers has prompted ratings companies to warn the industry may be taking on too much shadow banking default-risk. Insurers held 281 billion yuan ($46 billion) of trust products on June 30, surging from 144 billion yuan at the end of last year, China Insurance Regulatory Commission data show. The companies’ shadow bank assets, including wealth management products and other financing kept off commercial lenders’ balance sheets, reached 1.14 trillion yuan, or 13 percent of their investments, Standard & Poor’s estimated, adding that this made them “vulnerable in times of stress.” 
  • Rajoy Apologizes as New Wave of Graft Allegations Roils Spain. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy apologized to the Spanish people yesterday amid mounting public outrage at a new wave of corruption allegations against officials from his party. All members of the governing People’s Party among the 51 arrested this week on bribery allegations have had their party membership suspended and will be expelled if the charges are proved, Rajoy told the Senate in Madrid. “I understand and share fully the indignation of so many Spaniards at the accumulation of scandals,” Rajoy said. “In the name of the People’s Party I want to apologize to all Spaniards for having appointed to positions for which they were not worthy those who would seem to have abused them.”
  • Asian Stocks Advance for Fourth Day After U.S. Rally. Asian stocks rose for a fourth day, after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed near a record, amid optimism about U.S. earnings and economic data before a Federal Reserve policy announcement. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) gained 0.4 percent to 139.32 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo, before markets opened in China and Hong Kong
  • Brown Plans Senate Hearing on ‘Disturbing’ New York Fed Tapes. U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown plans to hold a hearing on Federal Reserve Bank of New York oversight of financial firms after a former examiner alleged her colleagues went too easy on firms including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. “That report raised enough questions that we want to know the answers,” the Ohio Democrat said in an interview today in Columbus. “I’m willing to say there’ll be a hearing.”
Wall Street Journal: 
  • Fast Traders Are Getting Data From SEC Seconds Early. Studies Show Lag in Posting to Website. Hedge funds and other rapid-fire investors can get access to market-moving documents ahead of other users of the Securities and Exchange Commission’s system for distributing company filings, giving them a potential edge on the rest of the market.
  • Bank Regulator Warns of Lax Standards on Auto Loans. A major banking regulator is sounding the alarm about lax car lending standards that are leading to a new round of losses for banks. There’s been a spike in the average size of car loans that banks and other lenders are writing off as a loss following months of unpaid bills by borrowers, an official of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a unit of the Treasury Department, said in a speech at a collections-industry conference on Tuesday.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters: 
Obama takes on coal with first-ever carbon limits
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20130919_ap_0f857b20e0c144a5a1e1b9dddc9f9d72.html#YRThyDOhArykUeYy.9Brazil cuts 2014 GDP growth forecast, keeps fiscal goaFed's Williams: Can't wait too long to raise rates
Telegraph:
Economic Information Daily:
  • Chinese Provinces Say Slowdown Pressure Increases. Eight Chinese provinces including Shandong, Jiangsu and Sichuan are asking officials to intensify efforts in 4Q and seek to meet the full-year economic target, citing provincial govt. records. China should still keep monetary policy prudent in 2H, says Zheng Liansheng, researcher at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Evening Recommendations
  • None of note
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 111.0 -3.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 64.75 -2.25 basis points.
  • FTSE-100 futures +.32%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.18%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures  -.37%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
  • (ADP)/.73
  • (CMC)/.24
  • (ETN)/1.23
  • (EXC)/.72
  • (GT)/.70
  • (HSY)/1.08
  • (HES)/1.06
  • (H)/.26
  • (IACI)/.63
  • (JLL)/1.80
  • (PSX)/1.75
  • (RL)/2.05
  • (PX)/1.63
  • (SEE)/.47
  • (SKYW)/.40
  • (SPW)/1.38
  • (WLP)/2.27
  • (AKAM)/.57
  • (ALL)/1.33
  • (CAR)/1.80
  • (BIDU)/1.72
  • (ABX)/.16
  • (CBG)/.36
  • (ESV)/1.61
  • (FFIV)/1.48
  • (IPI)/.05
  • (MET)/1.38
  • (MUR)/.98
  • (RGR)/.94
  • (TRLA)/-.08
  • (V)/2.10
  • (WMB)/.18
Economic Releases
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +3,130,000 barrels versus a +7,111,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -663,640 barrels versus a -1,299,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to fall by -763,640 barrels versus a +1,049,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +.17% versus a -1.4% decline the prior week.
2:00 pm EST
  • The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds rate at .25%. 
  • The Fed's QE3 pace for October is estimated to fall to $0B versus $15B in September.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The $35B 5Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA mortgage applications report, (KSS) investor conference and the (GCI) investor meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, Central Bank Hopes, Less Eurozone/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Commodity/Technology Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.07 -6.05%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.75 +.55%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.25 -1.89%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.78 -6.40%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 98.0 -22.22%
  • Total Put/Call .98  +2.08%
  • NYSE Arms .87 -39.86% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.57 -.65%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.81 -.80%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 32.60 -.31%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 65.31 -2.57%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 250.33 -3.37%
  • China Blended Corporate Spread Index 333.67 +.55%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.5 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 22.25 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.75 -.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 190.0 +2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $79.22/Metric Tonne -.38%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.0 +1.0 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -38.8 +2.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -17.0 +.3 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.91 +1.0 basis point
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +110 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +20 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long