BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Friday, May 29, 2015

Market Week in Review

Posted by Gary .....at 3:57 PM

S&P 500 2,110.53 -.92%*

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Posted by Gary .....at 3:53 PM

Indices

S&P 500 2,110.53 -.92%

DJIA 18,048.60 -1.29%

NASDAQ 5,078.85 -.24%

Russell 2000 1,248.06 -.67%

S&P 500 High Beta 34.73 -2.0%

Goldman 50 Most Shorted 143.70 +.58%

Wilshire 5000 22,076.60 -.87%

Russell 1000 Growth 1,012.18 -1.02%

Russell 1000 Value 1,033.94 -.96%

S&P 500 Consumer Staples 500.59 -1.24%

Solactive US Cyclical 138.74 -1.03%

Morgan Stanley Technology 1,049.61 -.42%

Transports 8,306.83 -2.74%

Utilities 587.02 -.26%

Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 119.15 -2.05%

MSCI Emerging Markets 41.38 -2.68%

HFRX Equity Hedge 1,226.34 -.02%
HFRX Equity Market Neutral 987.46 -.17%

Sentiment/Internals

NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 240,139 -.73%

Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -98 -151

Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 30.77 -23.08%

CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 343,431 +7.25%
CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,621,198 -6.38%

Total Put/Call 1.17 +39.08%

OEX Put/Call .81 -84.71%

ISE Sentiment 97.0 -27.61%

NYSE Arms 1.20 +25.0%

Volatility(VIX) 13.90 +16.76%

S&P 500 Implied Correlation 61.71 +2.36%

G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.10 +3.17%

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.37 +3.54%

Smart Money Flow Index 17,567.84 -.84%

ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.614 Trillion +.18%
ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$5.390 Billion

AAII % Bulls 27.0 +7.1%
AAII % Bears 25.1 +.6%

Futures Spot Prices

CRB Index 223.17 -2.22%

Crude Oil 60.18 -.86%

Reformulated Gasoline 208.58 +.22%

Natural Gas 2.65 -10.93%

Heating Oil 195.53 -1.52%

Gold 1,191.0 -1.27%

Bloomberg Base Metals Index 171.09 -.98%

Copper 272.60 -4.33%

US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 231.67 USD/Ton unch.
China Iron Ore Spot 61.85 USD/Ton +3.15%

Lumber 273.40 +1.45%

UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,057.26 -3.11%

Economy

ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 1.4% -10.0 basis points

Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.2721 +5.22%

S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 124.69 +.18%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index -54.20 +7.9 points

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -11.10 -13.0 points

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -13.90 +1.3 points

Fed Fund Futures imply 56.0% chance of no change, 44.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 6/17

US Dollar Index 96.90 +.73%

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.40 +1.83%

Yield Curve 150.0 -9.0 basis points

10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.1% -11.0 basis points

Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.426 Trillion -.37%

U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.67 +1.73%

Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 229.0 +.91%

Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 22.08 +1.85%

Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 58.31 unch.

Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 311.36 +2.13%

Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 65.21 -.43%

Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 651.86 +90.44%

Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 309.57 +6.78%

iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 120.09 +.47%

10-Year TIPS Spread 1.84% -6.0 basis points

TED Spread 28.75 +1.5 basis points

2-Year Swap Spread 24.5 -1.75 basis points

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.5 -.75 basis point

N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 64.49 +1.09%

America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,117.0 +.73%

European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 76.51 +3.81%

Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 290.09 +1.40%

CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 87.50 unch.

M1 Money Supply $2.969 Trillion -.31%

Commercial Paper Outstanding 945.20 -2.0%

4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 276,250 -4,750

Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.7% +10 basis points

Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.87% +3.0 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 399.90 -1.62%

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 40.9 -1.5 points

Weekly Retail Sales +1.80% -20 basis points

Nationwide Gas $2.74/gallon unch.

Baltic Dry Index 588.0 -.68%

China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 890.42 -.14%

Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 40.0 -20.0%
Rail Freight Carloads 281,090 +.35%

Best Performing Style

Small-Cap Growth -.4%

Worst Performing Style

Large-Cap Growth -1.1%

Leading Sectors

Semis +3.9%

HMOs +2.3%

Hospitals +1.7%

Networking +1.2%

Computer Hardware +.9%

Lagging Sectors

Homebuilders -3.1%

Steel -3.3%

Gaming -3.6%

Oil Service -4.2%

Coal -11.2%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (8)

RALY, CBMG, BRCM, AAOI, TWC, TIF, ANF and TMUS

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (8)

STE, TPUB, PLAY, SERV, CGI, SMTC, WDAY and OTIC

Weekly Charts

ETFs

High-Volume Gainers

High-Volume Losers

Stocks

High-Volume Gainers

High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Rising Global Growth Worries, Escalating Eurozone Debt Angst, Fed Rate Hike Fears, Transport/Financial Sector Weakness

Posted by Gary .....at 2:37 PM

Broad Equity Market Tone:

Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower

Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining

Volume: Below Average

Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

Volatility(VIX) 13.64 +2.48%

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.30 +.40%

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.37 -.21%

S&P 500 Implied Correlation 61.60 +2.67%

ISE Sentiment Index 93.0 +24.0%

Total Put/Call 1.16 +7.41%

NYSE Arms 1.18 +4.70%

Credit Investor Angst:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.0 +.19%

America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,108.0 +1.71%

European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.51 +2.74%

Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 23.37 +5.84%

Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 59.63 +2.25%

Emerging Market CDS Index 290.30 +.56%

iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 120.09 +.11%

2-Year Swap Spread 24.5 +.75 basis point

TED Spread 28.75 +1.25 basis points

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.50 -.5 basis point

Economic Gauges:

3-Month T-Bill Yield .00% unch.

Yield Curve 149.0 -2.0 basis points

China Import Iron Ore Spot $61.85/Metric Tonne -.77%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index -54.20 +2.6 points

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -13.90 -2.1 points

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -20.4 -1.6 points

10-Year TIPS Spread 1.83 +2.0 basis points

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -132 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -124 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating +21 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Higher: On gains in my biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging markets shorts

Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 2:12 PM

Bloomberg:

Greece Vows to Hold Out Another Week as EU Aims to Wind Up Talks. The Greek government said it can survive another week without defaulting on the International Monetary Fund as European officials warned the window for accessing aid is closing. Greece will be able to scrape together enough cash to make a payment of about 300 million euros ($329 million) due to the IMF on June 5, Economy Minister George Stathakis said in an interview with Real News newspaper published Friday.
Greece Creditors at G-7 Say Budget Is Red Line as Payment Looms. The euro area’s largest economies told Greece its efforts to get more aid will come to nothing if the debt-swamped nation doesn’t overhaul its finances. With the clock ticking on the country’s bailout arrangement, European policy makers who gathered in the German city of Dresden for a Group of Seven meeting warned a deal to unlock a further loan disbursement was still not in sight after months of negotiations.
Credit Suisse Says Chinese Stocks are Overvalued by More Than 20 Percent. A market out of sync. Has the market departed from fundamentals? We believe so. Our regression model suggests the market is 23% overbought and has 15% potential U.S. dollar downside to year-end 2015 based on Credit Suisse macro forecasts ... Moreover, equity market price momentum has decoupled away from earnings revisions which remain deeply embedded in negative territory.
Canada’s GDP Contracts the Most Since 2009. Canada’s economy shrank between January and March, the first contraction in four years and the largest since the 2009 recession as collapsing energy prices prompted a plunge in business investment. Gross domestic product fell at a 0.6 percent annualized pace in the first quarter, Statistics Canada said Friday in Ottawa. The drop exceeded all 22 economist forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey, in which the median call was for an expansion of 0.3 percent. The agency revised its fourth-quarter growth estimate to 2.2 percent, from 2.4 percent previously.
Emerging Stocks Drop as Asia Declines Offset U.S. Rate Outlook. Emerging-market stocks slumped for a fifth straight day as Asian shares sank amid volatility in China’s equity market, offsetting economic data that weakened the case for an increase in U.S. interest rates. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 0.4 percent to 1,005.19 at 11:25 a.m. in New York, bringing its retreat in May to 4.1 percent. Brazil’s real weakened 0.7 percent to a two-month low against the dollar as a Bloomberg gauge tracking 20 developing-nation currencies headed for a monthly decline.
Germany and France Lead European Stocks Lower Amid Greek Concern. German and French stocks dragged European shares to their biggest decline in a month amid investor concern Greece won’t reach an agreement with creditors in time for a debt repayment.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index tumbled 1.7 percent to 399.87 at the close of trading, trimming its monthly gain to 1 percent. Benchmark gauges of French and German stocks fell at least 2.3 percent as automakers led declines among industry groups. Greece’s ASE Index slid 1.4 percent.

MarketWatch.com:

This typical sign of a stock market bubble is misleading.

CNBC:

ZeroHedge:

"Welcome To The Contraction": Q1 GDP Drops By 0.7%, Corporate Profits Crash. (graph)
Here We Go Again: Latest "Greece Will Make Payment" Headline Sends Stocks Surging. (graph)
A Tale Of Two Bubbles: China vs Nasdaq. (graph)
U.S. Households Under Pressure: Stagnant Incomes, Rising Basic Expenses. (graph)
GDP Report Confirms Global Trade Is Crashing, And Why That Is Good News For Some. (graph)
UMich Consumer Sentiment Slumps To 6-Month Lows, Current Conditions Tumble. (graph)
Chicago PMI Bounce Is Dead, Crashes Back Near 6 Year Lows. (graph)
Is The Oil Glut Real?
Greece Slides Back Into Recession As Deposits Hit 11-Year Low. (graph)
3 Things: Oil Trouble. (graph)
China Deploys Artillery On "Sand Castles" In South China Sea. (map)

Business Insider:

Financial Times:

Foreigners pile into China stocks as red flags loom. Chinese equity funds took in $4.6bn from overseas investors in the past week, according to data from EPFR released on Friday, more than double the previous high set in the second quarter of 2008. At that time, Chinese stocks were in the middle of a long and painful downturn after the popping of the 2007 stock market bubble. China allocations within pan-Asian and global emerging market funds have also risen to a record high, EPFR data show.

Telegraph:

IMF warns of Grexit threat as judgment day approaches. Christine Lagarde admits "it's very unlikely that we'll reach a comprehensive solution in the next days", as talks take Athens to the edge of default.
ECB fears 'abrupt reversal' for global assets on Fed tightening. The ECB’s financial stability report describes a 'fragile equilibrium' in world markets, with a host of underlying risks.

Corriere della Sera:

Political Will Missing on Greece Deal. Political will "on behalf of all parties" still missing to reach agreement, Greek Deputy Prime Minister Yannis Dragasakis says in interview.

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 1:06 PM

Style Underperformer:

Large-Cap Growth -.41%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Coal -1.77% 2) Road & Rail -1.22% 3) I-Banks -.93%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

ULTA, ZPIN, URI, SPLK, PLUS, VEEV, SWFT, DECK, KNX, AAWW, BIG, CP, ATHN, RYAAY, ARCB, GCO, CNW, QADA, WBC, ODFL, ANF, POT, GEF, A, KSU, RAX, CNW and TEX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: