Sunday, September 27, 2015

Week Ahead by Bloomberg. 
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as quarter-end window-dressing, short-covering and bargain-hunting offset China bubble-bursting fears, US Fed rate-hike worries and rising European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, September 26, 2015

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:    
  • Stocks Slump Toward Worst Quarter in 4 Years Amid Fed Confusion. A sales warning from Caterpillar Inc. showed the risks of slowing global growth, while Nike Inc. provided a more upbeat view of demand overseas. Investors weighed a slip in equipment orders against a pickup in gross domestic product. A tweet by Hillary Clinton roiled the biotechnology industry, highlighting the volatility facing markets. And above it all loomed the Federal Reserve, whose officials fueled the debate over whether the American economy is robust enough to withstand higher interest rates amid the recent turmoil. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index finished the five days with a loss of 1.4 percent. The gauge has tumbled 6.4 percent in the quarter, headed for its worst slide in four years.
  • Volkswagen Scandal Spreads Trouble From IPOs to Credit Markets. A week after it admitted to cheating on U.S. emissions tests for years, Volkswagen AG’s pain is beginning to spread throughout Europe’s credit markets. The Bank of France stopped trading two securities backed by Volkswagen auto loans on Friday, while executives of parts supplier Schaeffler AG find themselves fielding questions about their biggest customer as they drum up support for an initial public offering, according to people familiar with the matters. Since Volkswagen admitted Sept. 18 that it had cheated on U.S. air pollution tests since 2009, the chief executive officer resigned, the company became the target of a joint investigation by 27 U.S. states and the stock price tumbled 28 percent.
  • Catalans Vote on Independence as World Leaders Warn of the Risk. Catalans head to the polls on Sunday to decide whether to try and create a new European state with the international community telling them they could be making a costly mistake. While Catalans are officially choosing lawmakers for the 135-seat regional assembly, their president, Artur Mas, has formed a pro-independence alliance with his traditional rivals within the separatist camp in a bid to win a clear mandate for breaking away from Spain. The legal barriers to a breakaway remain high, but many Catalans are determined to push forward regardless. The campaign risks seeing their region excluded from the European Union and its single currency, roiling the market for Spain’s 1 trillion euros ($1.1 trillion) of sovereign debt and wrenching the industrial links that tie Catalan manufacturers to clients and supplies across the continent.   
  • Shop Rents Tumble on H.K. Street That Was World's Priciest. Cosmetics retailer Colourmix will soon move to Hong Kong’s Russell Street, once the world’s most expensive shopping strip, and pay almost 40 percent less than the former tenant as China’s economic slowdown rattles the city. “Landlords have to face the reality, no matter how reluctant they are,” Lawrence Wong, a director at property agent Sheraton Valuers Ltd., said in a telephone interview Saturday. “It’s still better than leaving their property empty.” Russell Street has lost its claim as the most expensive shopping street on the planet to New York’s Fifth Avenue, according to broker Cushman & Wakefield Inc. in November. A July research report by Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. predicted prices for space in prime locations will drop 15 percent to 20 percent in Hong Kong this year. Retail rents were down 12 percent in Causeway Bay and 3 percent in Central at the end of June, Oriental Daily reported earlier this month, citing data from CBRE Group Inc.
  • Xi, Putin Stay at Chinese-Owned Waldorf Obama Snubbed. Chinese President Xi Jinping leaves the White House, where he discussed the theft of commercial secrets, and heads to New York to check in tonight at the Waldorf Astoria, where his privacy is sure to be guaranteed by the hotel’s new Chinese owners. On Sunday, Xi will be joined by Russia’s Vladimir Putin, who also picked the Waldorf for his first stay in Manhattan in a decade, according to diplomats preparing for the Eurasian leaders’ address to the annual seven-day session of the United Nations General Assembly.  
  • Dollar Ready to Ride Jobs Gain After Yellen Clarifies Rate Plans. If employment forecasts are any indication, the dollar is about to have another good week. A gauge of the greenback rose the most in two months after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen clarified that she was one of the policy makers who believe an interest-rate rise would likely be appropriate this year. The prospect of higher U.S. rates raises the appeal of dollar-denominated holdings. An Oct. 2 jobs report is projected to add to the central bank’s case for reducing monetary stimulus.
  • Junk-Debt Investors Fight for Scraps as U.S. Shale Rout Deepens. It’s every U.S. shale investor for himself as the worst oil rout in almost 30 years drags down its latest victims. Investors in $158.2 million of Goodrich Petroleum Corp.’s debt agreed to take 47 cents on the dollar in exchange for stock warrants for some note holders and a lien on Goodrich’s oil acreage, according to a company statement today. That puts them second in line if the Houston-based company liquidates its assets in bankruptcy and pushes the remaining holders of $116.8 million in original bonds to the back of the pack. "In the industry it’s called ‘getting primed,’" said Spencer Cutter, a credit analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. "It’s every man for himself. They’re trying to get in and get exchanged, and if you can’t you’re getting left out in the cold."
  • Oil's Killing U.S. Power Generators, And They Don't Even Burn It. The slide in global oil prices helped send shares of America’s power generators to their worst weekly decline in more than six years. And they don’t even burn the stuff. The glut of crude pooling up around the world has cut oil prices 23 percent in three months, and overseas natural gas supplies linked to crude are so cheap that America’s gas exports can’t compete. Traders speculating that more of the power-plant fuel will just remain in the U.S. have sent gas futures to the lowest seasonal level in 14 years. And power generators’ stocks followed suit, with a Bloomberg Intelligence index of generators sliding 12.9 percent, touching a low on Thursday not seen since July 2012.
  • N.Y. to Shut Obamacare Insurer With $265 Million in Loans. Health Republic Insurance of New York, the Affordable Care Act insurer that got $265 million in U.S. loans, will stop selling policies and eventually cease operations under orders from New York and federal regulators.The insurer will be wound down because regulators found that it was likely to become financially insolvent, according to an e-mailed statement Friday from New York’s Department of Financial Services. Health Republic, the No. 2 provider of health coverage to individuals on the state’s Affordable Care Act marketplace, is the latest insurer created under the ACA to face financial trouble.
Barron's:
  • Had bullish comments on (BWA), (DLPH), (HAR), (ADSK), (EPC), (PANW) and (FTNT).
  • Had bearish comments on (JBLU).
Fox News:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
  • 101 Iranian-American scholars just sent an ominous letter to the White House. In a letter to President Obama, 101 Iranian-American scholars outlined various abuses committed by Rouhani and his closest advisers in the government. According to the scholars, Rouhani represents less of a change in Iranian policy, and more of a continuation of the same policies pushed by the country's hard-lined clerics since they gained power. Perhaps the most damning criticism, one made by Amnesty International and echoed by the scholars, is the “unprecedented” killing spree that the Iranian government is currently on.
  • The S&P 500 bought $134 billion worth of itself in Q2. One of the big drivers of earnings per share growth has been stock buybacks. The math is relatively straight forward: companies use cash to buy their own stock, allowing net earnings to be divvied up among a smaller number of shares. While buybacks have been booming since the financial crisis, they've leveled off lately. "Dollar-value share repurchases amounted to $134.4 billion over the second quarter (July), which represented a 6.9% decline from the first quarter (April) and a 0.4% decline year-over-year," FactSet's Andrew Birstingl notes. "On a trailing twelve-month basis (TTM), dollar-value share repurchases totaled $555.5 billion, which was approximately flat with the first quarter."

Friday, September 25, 2015

Market Week in Review

  • S&P 500 1,931.34 -1.36%*
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The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
  • S&P 500 1,931.34 -1.36%
  • DJIA 16,314.67 -.43%
  • NASDAQ 4,686.49 -2.91%
  • Russell 2000 1,122.79 -3.49%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 28.72 -3.95%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 114.10 -6.58% 
  • Wilshire 5000 20,134.52 -1.75%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 946.51 -2.14%
  • Russell 1000 Value 922.47 -.97%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 488.02 +.74%
  • Solactive US Cyclical 115.84 -3.19%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 996.02 -1.42%
  • Transports 7,850.62 -2.31%
  • Utilities 572.36 +1.30%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 100.67 -1.92%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 32.65 -4.70%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,153.0 -1.87%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,026.67 +.01%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 226,018 -1.56%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -999 -911
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 20.0 -41.54%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 259,429 +8.37%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,606,217 -5.68%
  • Total Put/Call 1.29 +14.16%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.42 -28.28%
  • ISE Sentiment 53.0 -1.85%
  • NYSE Arms 1.02 -62.08%
  • Volatility(VIX) 23.62 +6.01%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 64.81 +.95%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.59 +4.64%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 12.89 +9.14%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 17,063.10 +.69%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.660 Trillion +.53%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$3.093 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 32.1 -3.4%
  • AAII % Bears 28.7 -1.5%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 195.71 +.79%
  • Crude Oil 45.37 +.80%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 139.59 +1.87%
  • Natural Gas 2.57 -1.65%
  • Heating Oil 151.60 +.88%
  • Gold 1,145.70 +.60%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 145.57 -3.34%
  • Copper 228.20 -4.11%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 199.0 USD/Ton unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 56.98 USD/Ton -1.23%
  • Lumber 216.60 -7.03%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,022.22 +1.91%
Economy
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -1.9% +30.0 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0408 unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 126.21 -.15%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -25.0 +2.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.9 +1.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -24.7 -1.0 point
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 82.0% chance of no change, 18.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 10/28
  • # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 5.70 +13.1%
  • US Dollar Index 96.16 +1.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.07 -.41%
  • Yield Curve 147.0 +2.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.17% +4.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.459 Trillion +.22%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 6.98 +10.8%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 252.0 +4.34%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 21.53 +5.44%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 86.23 +10.12%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 277.93 +6.92%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 71.0 +6.28%
  • Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 849.37 +11.94%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 372.66 +6.0%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 119.69 +.48%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.47% -9.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 32.50 -.5 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 10.0 -2.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.50 +1.5 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 86.73 +12.8%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,036.0 -10.05%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 91.10 +17.0%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 380.67 +12.5%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread  to Swaps 120.0 +2.0 basis points
  • M1 Money Supply $3.028 Trillion +.19%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,030.5 -.8%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 271,750 -750
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.7% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.86% +5 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 456.10 +13.88%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 41.9 +1.7 points
  • Weekly Retail Sales +1.30% -20.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.29/gallon -.01/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 922.0 -3.94%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 814.09 -1.58%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 37.50 +7.14%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 281,414 +16.37%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value -.9%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth -5.3%
Leading Sectors
  • Banks +1.4%
  • Utilities +1.3%
  • Insurance +1.0%
  • Restaurants +.7%
  • I-Banks +.7%
Lagging Sectors
  • Steel -7.3% 
  • Gaming -8.1%
  • Oil Tankers -8.1%
  • Biotech -13.0%
  • Coal -19.9%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (9)
  • CCRN, RPD, FNFG, CNCE, SWAY, P, BMR, STE and CORE
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (35)
  • HSTM, TWOU, APLE, CLDT, TREX, LEN/B, ZFGN, THO, PTLA, ZAYO, SNCR, BLD, THRM, SPWH, NTRA, GI, EIGI, TEN, XENT, SPW, LQ, XNCR, MOS, ANIP, MNK, VRTX, GKOS, NRG, DPLO, RTRX, BPMC, LXRX, HZNP, DYN and PCRX
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on China-Bubble Bursting Fears, Fed Rate-Hike Worries, Surging European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Biotech/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.06 -6.01%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.02 +.14%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.95 -.84%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 62.81 -3.74%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 51.0 -26.09%
  • Total Put/Call 1.21 +18.63%
  • NYSE Arms 1.17 +23.07% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 87.78 +2.06%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,033.0 +2.44%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 90.01 -1.85%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 21.53 +1.51%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 86.23 +.57%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 380.87 +3.0%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporates High Yield Index 119.68 unch.
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 10.0 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 32.5 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.5 +1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.53 +.02%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield -.02% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 147.0 +3.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $56.98/Metric Tonne +3.04%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -25.0 +2.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.9 -1.0 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -24.7 -.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.47 -2.0 basis points
  • # of Months to 1st Fed Rate Hike(Morgan Stanley) 5.70 +.08
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +71 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -15 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -24 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:   
  • China's Stocks Fall as Capital Outflows Hit Record in August. China’s stocks capped a weekly loss after capital outflows hit a record and concern grew the nation’s economic slowdown is worsening and the government is scaling back support for equities. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1.6 percent to 3,092.35 at the close, wiping out this week’s gain. About eight stocks slid for every one that advanced as trading volumes tumbled 33 percent from the 30-day average. An estimated $141.66 billion left China in August, exceeding the previous record of $124.62 billion in July, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Technology stocks, the best performers this week, slumped the most among industry groups.Trading on China’s stock market is waning before a week-long holiday shutdown that starts on Oct. 1.  
  • Obama Will Hit You 'Like a Pack of Hyenas,' Chinese Warn Xi on the Web. Leader's visit brings out the drive-by commenters, who call U.S. a 'bully nation,' then turn their scorn on their own government. That ambivalence is on display in China’s blogosphere, where explosions of patriotic outrage at how Xi's American hosts are treating him are mixed with sarcastic references to the Chinese government as censor and leader of a nation of copycats.   
  • Mexico -- Not China or Brazil -- Is Stock Bears' Biggest Target. The world’s stock investors have crowned Mexico their favorite market to bet against. Short interest in BlackRock’s $1.2 billion iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF is at more than 40 percent of shares outstanding, compared with 13 percent at the start of May, the most among more than 1,100 exchange-traded-funds tracked by Bloomberg with at least a $300 million market cap. By that measure, traders are the most bearish on Mexican stocks since February 2009, according to data compiled by Markit.
  • European Bonds Slide After Yellen Signals Rate Liftoff in 2015. Europe’s government bonds followed Treasuries lower after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen confirmed the U.S. central bank is poised to raise interest rates this year. Longer-dated debt underperformed, with the yield on 10-year German bunds, Europe’s benchmark sovereign securities, climbing from the lowest in a month. Yellen said in a speech Thursday that she and most other Fed policy makers anticipate lifting rates by year-end. Euro-zone bonds rallied at the end of last week after the Fed kept its key rate at a record low and as speculation built that the European Central Bank would expand its asset-purchase program to boost inflation.
  • European Stocks Rebound as Yellen Clarifies Fed Rate Policy. European stocks jumped from an eight-month low after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said she’s ready to raise rates this year, indicating recent market turmoil won’t derail the U.S. recovery. Her comments helped clarify the Fed’s thinking, after the central bank’s decision to hold rates last week confused investors about the trajectory of U.S. rates and increased stock volatility. Following a selloff yesterday that wiped out its 2015 gains, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 2.8 percent higher today.
  • Treasury Notes Fall as Yellen Sees Fed Rate Increase This Year. Treasury notes fell, extending this week’s pattern of alternating between gains and losses, after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank is poised to raise interest rates this year. Yields on shorter maturities, which are among the most sensitive to what the Fed does with its benchmark rate, rose as Yellen said in a speech Thursday that most policy makers including herself anticipate increasing rates by year-end. Government bonds from the U.K. and Germany also fell. Treasuries remained lower after a report showed the U.S. economy expanded more than previously forecast in the second quarter. “Yellen’s comments were a reminder that, although the tone may have been softer than expected at the last meeting, her own view is that she expects them to hike this year,” said Allan von Mehren, chief analyst at Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen. “Maybe the market was starting to doubt that.”
  • Google(GOOG) Said to Be Under U.S. Antitrust Scrutiny Over Android. Google Inc. is back under U.S. antitrust scrutiny as officials ask whether the tech giant stifled competitors’ access to its Android mobile-operating system, said two people familiar with the matter. The Federal Trade Commission reached an agreement with the Justice Department to spearhead an investigation of Google’s Android business, the people said. FTC officials have met with technology company representatives who say Google gives priority to its own services on the Android platform, while restricting others, added the people, who asked for anonymity because the matter is confidential.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Emerging Markets Go From Bad to Worse. A gauge of emerging-market currencies has fallen to its lowest level in six years. Currencies in emerging markets have taken a turn for the worse, with no signs of reprieve. The Malaysian ringgit plumbed new lows Friday, on track for its largest weekly loss in nearly two decades, while Indonesia’s rupiah fell to a fresh 17-year low, following steep declines in other emerging market currencies earlier in the week. The MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index, a broad gauge of emerging-market...
Fox News:
  • Boehner announces resignation, stuns Congress. (video) Whether it was "the right time," or a desire to end "this prolonged leadership turmoil" in the House -- or both -- John Boehner's bombshell announcement Friday to resign as speaker and leave Congress at the end of October had all the markings of a self-described "regular guy with a big job." "Yep," Boehner told reporters, describing the sequence of events leading up to his decision -- which included a morning walk to Starbucks and a stop at the neighborhood diner -- "I think today's the day."
Zero Hedge:
Telegraph: