Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alternative Energy +1.9% 2) Semis +1.8% 3) Agriculture +1.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SSNI, OA, FANH, BIP, MTOR, ETM, HALO, ITRI, QDEL, BLCM, AAAP, GLYC, RGNX, SGBK, AXON, COHU, CLVS, RARX, AJRD, GKOS, SQM, UCTT, NTES, CF, ESIO, ANAB, COHU, AAOI, AJRD, CLVS, EVBG, VDSI, NVDA, RGNX, KTOS, ACET and VSAR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TMUS 2) V 3) AXP 4) MOS 5) ETN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NVRB 2) FANH 3) NVDA 4) CAT 5) AMAT

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -6.7% Below 100-Day Average
• 8 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 54.3% of Issues Advancing, 41.4% Declining
• 147 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 43.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 39.2%
• Vix 10.1 -.7%
• Total Put/Call .86 -19.6%
• TRIN/Arms 1.06 -11.7%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Four US Tourists Attacked With Acid in Marseille, Official Says. Four young female U.S. tourists were attacked with acid Sunday in the French city of Marseille by a woman who has been arrested, the Marseille prosecutor's office said. Two of the tourists were injured in the face in the attack in the city's main Saint Charles train station and one of them has a possible eye injury, a spokeswoman for the Marseille prosecutor's office told The Associated Press in a phone call. She said all four of the tourists, who are in their 20s, have been hospitalized, two of them for shock. She said a 41 -year-old female suspect has been arrested.

• China Home Prices Rise in Fewer Cities as Property Market Cools. China’s home prices rose in the fewest cities since January, adding to signs of a real estate industry slowdown as officials persist with curbs to limit the risk of bubbles. New-home prices, excluding government-subsidized housing, in August gained in 46 of 70 cities tracked by the government, compared with 56 in July, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday. Prices fell in 18 cities from the previous month and were unchanged in six.

• World's Central Banks Can't Ignore the Bitcoin Boom, BIS Says. The world’s central banks can’t sit back and ignore the growth in cryptocurrencies as it could pose a risk to the stability of the financial system, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

• What the Surging Yuan Means for China's Economy. (video) The yuan’s surge this year is proving a double-edged sword, risking hurting the nation’s exports even while boosting the chances of currency and capital control reforms. The exchange rate’s 6 percent advance this year has crushed depreciation pressures, allowing policy makers the freedom to loosen capital outflow controls that may impact the currency. The People’s Bank of China took a step in that direction on Sept . 11, scrapping a reserve requirement on the trading of foreign-exchange forwards that had made it expensive to short the yuan. Some of the potential lifting of curbs may help companies by making their overseas investment efforts easier. Here’s a look at the implications of the yuan’s strength:

• The U.K.'s Economic Outlook Is Getting Rosier.

• Yen Falls as Havens Retreat; Stocks Climb in Asia. (video) The yen declined as havens retreated after the worst-case scenarios for North Korea and hurricanes in the U.S. didn’t eventuate, while stocks inched higher in Asia following a record-breaking Wall Street session. Futures on the S&P 500 Index advanced with equities in Australia, South Korea and Hong Kong. Japan markets are closed for a holiday on Monday. The S&P 500 climbed above 2,500 for the first time on Friday and the Dow Jones Industrial Average chalked another record close as investors shrugged off the latest North Korean missile test. The dollar bounced after declining on Friday when U.S. retail sales raised concerns about the strength of the economy. The Kospi index rose 0.9 percent and Australia’s main gauge was up 0.6 percent. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong gained 0.7 percent. Gauges in China were slightly higher. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.4 percent.

• IEA Sees Risk of Volatile Oil Prices on Weak Upstream Investment. A dearth of new investment in oil production is stoking a risk of tighter crude supply and unstable prices, even as demand growth is expected to slow over the next five years, according to a senior International Energy Agency official. The worldwide cushion of spare production capacity will shrink without further investment in exploration and output, Neil Atkinson, the head of the IEA’s oil markets and industry division, said Sunday at a conference in Manama, Bahrain. “There are still not enough signs of investment beginning to return, and that raises the risk of tightening of the market in the next five years and a risk to the stability of oil prices,” he said. “There is at least a possibility of going back to the situation we had 10 years ago where oil prices were very, very high at a time when demand was growing.”

• Northrop(NOC) Nears Deal in $7.5 Billion Range for Orbital(OA), WSJ Says.

Wall Street Journal:

• Hurricanes Stir Up Profits for Refiners. Even refinery owners with flooded plants could see an improvement to their bottom lines.

• Unlike Most Industries, Drone Makers and Operators Clamor for Federal Regulation. Leaders seek approval for broader commercial applications, so they buck the trend toward looser government oversight.

• Trump’s Deal Rejection Puts U.S. Policy on Chinese Investment in Focus. The president’s decision to block a Beijing-backed fund’s attempt to buy a U.S. chip firm is highlighting a national-security debate in Washington over Chinese money.

Fox News:

• Second suspect in London subway attack arrested; terror threat level downgraded to 'severe'. (video)

• Dozens arrested as second night of St. Louis protests turns violent. (video)

CNBC:

• Pittsburgh's self-driving car boom means $200,000 pay packages for robotics grads.

• Trump agrees stronger North Korea sanctions needed, South Korea says.

Zero Hedge:

• Kelly Loses Control Again As Trump Unleashes Epic Tweetstorm, Calls Kim Jong Un "Rocket Man".

• Long-Term Mortgage Delinquencies Seriously Under-Reported.

• "This Could Take Years" Feinstein Confirms Trump Jr. Will Give Public Testimony This Fall.

• BIS Finds Global Debt May Be Underreported By $14 Trillion.

• Haley Warns World: Mattis Will "Take Care" Of North Korea If Diplomacy Fails.

• Protesters Smash Windows, Throw Bricks At Cops In Second Night Of St. Louis Violence.

Business Insider:

• The Fed is getting ready for its 'biggest meeting of the year'.

• UBS: These are our top 5 picks for tech stocks.

• Facebook(FB) is getting aggressive in its quest to turn Instagram Stories into the next big ad platform.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.75 -1.25 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 18.25 -.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.82 +.06%.

• S&P 500 futures +.22%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.20%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

• (SCS)/.23

Economic Releases 
10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for September is estimated to fall to 67.0 versus 68.0 in August. 

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for July.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone CPI report, Australia Bank Minutes, Stephens Bank Forum and the DA Davidson Engineering/Construction Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by CNBC.
• Week Ahead by TheStreet. 
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on more dovish global central bank commentary, diminished geopolitical fears, oil gains, technical buying, short-covering and yen weakness. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• U.S. Stocks Reach Another Milestone as S&P 500 Vaults Past 2,500. The S&P 500 Index powered past 2,500 for the first time, notching its third round-number milestone of the year as the bull market in U.S. equities rages on. The benchmark gained 0.2 percent to 2,500.23 Friday, capping its biggest weekly advance since January, as technology shares rebounded and banks climbed with Treasury yields. Up 12 percent since January, the S&P 500 is on course for its best annual gain in four years.

• U.K. Arrests Man in Train Attack as Threat Level Stays Critical. Police have arrested an 18-year-old man on the U.K. southeast coast in connection with the detonation of an improvised bomb on a London tube train that injured at least 29 people. The man was arrested in the port area of Dover, a major ferry hub for travel to France, on Saturday and is being held under a section of the U.K. Terrorism Act, the Metropolitan Police said in a statement. He is being held at a local police station then will be transferred to south London “in due course.”

• North Korea Says Missile Test Was Aimed at ‘Confirming Action Procedures of Actual War’. North Korea said it will complete its nuclear program in the face of heightened United Nations sanctions after the isolated nation on Friday fired a second intermediate-range ballistic missile that flew over Japan. Leader Kim Jong Un claimed his nuclear program is nearly complete despite a series of sanctions by the UN Security Council and his final goal is to build “the equilibrium of real force” with the U.S. and prevent military action against Pyongyang, the Korean Central News Agency said Saturday. Kim personally guided the launch of the latest Hwasong-12 missile, it said.

• ECB Bond Reinvestments Could Be Shock Absorber as QE Decelerates. As the European Central Bank prepares to slow its bond-buying program, policy makers are considering softening the blow by highlighting a related measure -- the reinvestment of maturing debt. An average of 15 billion euros ($18 billion) a month of assets held under quantitative easing will mature next year, according to euro-area central bank officials who said the figure was presented at the last Governing Council meeting. While the plan to reinvest that cash has long been a part of policy, the ECB is concerned that investors are under-appreciating its impact, three people said. A spokesman for the central bank declined to comment.

• More Than a Million Ford(F) Explorers May Face Recall Due to Fumes.

Wall Street Journal:

• Frustration With Republicans Drove Donald Trump to Deal With Democrats. Shift raises prospect of future collaborations; Nancy Pelosi says White House and GOP ‘don’t have the votes’. Months of mounting frustration with the lack of progress in the Republican-led Congress drove President Donald Trump to cut legislative deals with top Democrats, according to White House officials, raising the prospect of future collaborations on subjects from immigration to a tax overhaul to spending bills.

• Facebook(FB) Gave Special Counsel Robert Mueller More Details on Russian Ad Buys Than Congress. Social-media company shared copies of ads and account information, people familiar with the matter said.

• The Lattice Warning to China. The U.S. blocks the purchase of a firm with sensitive technology.

• Two Top Equifax Executives to Retire. The departures of the company’s chief information officer and chief security officer come in the wake of a massive data breach.

• What’s the Point of a Liberal Education? Don’t Ask the Ivy League. Few top colleges explain their purpose to students. They want to talk gender and inequality instead.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (RHT), (CAT), (ETFC), (ALGN), (AMG), (CFR) and (ADI).

• Had bearish commentary on (FDX).

Fox News:

• London subway attack: Armed officers searching home in suburb after blast. (video)

• Tough talk from Kim Jong Un, but expert says it may signal an 'opening'. (

CNBC:

• US should refrain from further North Korea threats, says China's ambassador to US.

• OPEC's second-biggest producer could possibly split in two — and start an oil war.

• Chances for significant tax cuts have 'risen sharply'. (video)

Zero Hedge:

• Another Coverup? Equifax(EFX) Accused Of Scrubbing That Its Chief Security Officer Was A Music Major.

• UK Terror Threat Level Raised To "Critical": Another Terrorist Attack May Be Imminent.

• "They've Lost The Plot" - 700 Catalan Mayors Defy Spanish Government Amid Police Raids. 

• North Korea Vows To Complete Nuke Program, Reach "Military Equilibrium" With The US.

• Protesters Storm St. Louis Mall Chanting "No Justice, No Profits" As U2 Cancels Concert.

• Deutsche Bank: "This Is The $2.5 Trillion Question".

• Even Bernie Sanders Thinks "Medicare For All" Would Bankrupt America.

• Is It Racist? Maryland Officials Dare To Dis-Allow Non-Citizens From Voting.

• "Dangerously Vague" - New US Law Blurs The Line Between Hate Speech And Hate Crime. 

• WSJ Reports That Trump Won't Withdraw From Paris Deal, White House Denies.

• Facing Imminent Bankruptcy, Toys "R" Us Enters Death Spiral.

• Nearly 60% Of Americans Support 'Military Action' Against North Korea.

• Apple's(AAPL) New "FaceID" Could Be A Powerful Mass Spying Tool.

• "I'm Done" - CNN Anchor 'Triggered' After Panelist Proclaims Love Of "First Amendment & Boobs". (video)

• 18-Year-Old Man Arrested Over London Subway Bombing.

• "Massive Protest" In St. Louis Over Ex-Cop's Acquittal Turns Violent, Tear Gas Deployed As 32 Arrested.

• Weekend Reading: They're Baaaccckkk!

• Quad Witch 'Pins' S&P At Exactly 2500 Despite Dismal Data, Nukes, & Terrorism. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Everything you need to know about the iPhone X. 

• Global debt is around 3 times the size of the world economy — and it shows no sign of slowing down.

• A 32-year old portfolio manager from Paul Tudor Jones' hedge fund is setting off on his own.

• The Trump administration is twisting itself into knots to try and explain why a DACA deal wouldn't be 'amnesty'.

• An investing legend who's nailed the bull market at every turn sees no end in sight for the 269% rally.

De Tijd:

• ECB's Praet Says 'Substantial Stimulus' Is Still Needed. "Underlying inflation remains too low. We have to be patient and persevere with our policy. A substantial stimulus is still necessary," ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet says in an interview.

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,497.67 +1.45%

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
 
Indices

• DJIA 22,259.30 +2.13%

• NASDAQ 6,446.90 +1.36%

• Russell 2000 1,429.54 +2.14%

• S&P 500 High Beta 38.03 +3.06%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 138.21 +1.48%

• Wilshire 5000 25,839.40 +1.55%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,251.75 +1.02%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,152.08 +1.94%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 568.29 +.63%

• Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.3323 +.81%
  

• NYSE Technology 1,556.03 +1.8%

• Transports 9,519.67 +1.43%

• Utilities 745.29 -.24%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 99.19 +2.8%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 45.37 +1.07%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,224.74 +.64%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,010.63 +.06%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 301,211 +.78%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 393 +55

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 65.71 +66.5%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 382,113 +4.44%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,326,586 +3.54%

• Total Put/Call 1.08 -2.78%

• OEX Put/Call .34 -75.69%

• ISE Sentiment 76.0 -3.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.18 -7.52%

• Volatility(VIX) 10.3 -14.7%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 25.78 -22.7%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.71 -.8%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.70 -5.41%

• Smart Money Flow Index 19,643.41 +.67%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.739 Trillion +.62%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$4.280 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 41.3 +41.0%

• AAII % Bears 22.0 -39.0%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 183.87 +1.42%

• Crude Oil 49.78 +4.46%

• Reformulated Gasoline 166.54 +1.0%

• Natural Gas 3.02 +3.97%

• Heating Oil 179.22 +1.51%

• Gold 1,322.0 -1.92%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 194.16 -2.67%

• Copper 295.15 -2.91%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 281.67 USD/Ton unch.

• China Iron Ore Spot 72.13 USD/Ton -3.0%

• Lumber 379.10 -2.29%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,045.24 +1.25%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.0 +10.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +.3% -60.0 basis points
  

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.6935 +7.26% 

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 97.90 +1.25%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 140.75 +.21%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -19.0 +4.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 18.4 -1.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 15.90 -9.6 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 86.0% chance of no change, 14.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 9/20

• US Dollar Index 91.90 +.65%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,644.22 -.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.0 +1.93%

• Yield Curve 82.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.20% +14.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.431 Trillion +.41%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 25.91 -.02%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 334.75 -.04%

• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 4.95 -10.0%

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 18.32 -5.83%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 40.91 -5.91%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 52.14 -5.1%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 68.98 -2.53%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 132.15 -5.44%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 141.73 +.16%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.86% +5.0 basis points

• TED Spread 29.0 -2.0 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.25 +1.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 -.75 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 56.39 -5.56%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 419.0 -5.8%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 48.37 -7.17%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 169.48 -3.88%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 150.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.563 Trillion -.41%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,023.40 +1.6%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 263,250 +13,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.4% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.78% unch.

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 462.10 +9.9%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 51.90 -.7 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +4.4% unch.

• Nationwide Gas $2.64/gallon -.o3/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,361.0 +2.18%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 823.76 -1.18%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 unch.

• Rail Freight Carloads 238,544 -13.9%

Best Performing Style

•  Small-Cap Value +2.6%

Worst Performing Style

•  Large-Cap Growth +1.1%

Leading Sectors

• Oil Service +6.3%

• Alt Energy +5.6%

• Semis +4.8%

• Banks +3.7%

• Computer Hardware +3.1%

Lagging Sectors

• HMOs -.6% 

• Biotech -.7%

• Gaming -.9%

• Steel -2.0%

• Gold & Silver -3.3%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (24)

• KURA, YERR, HRTG, UVE, HCI, ZUMZ, HALO, INOV, CASH, DLB, LOXO, AAC, PARR, UNFI, CPE, IBTX, SGBK, MPO, YEXT, OKTA, JBLU, LBAI, HOMB and ARRY

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (15)

• PHH, KTOS, AYX, CLDR, TRU, EPZM, IRBT, LXRX, AOBC, SAIC, GKOS, SAGE, ICPT, HIIQ and EFX

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change