Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 Index 2,802.20 +1.28%

 
The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 
Indices

• DJIA 25,979.90 +1.48%

• NASDAQ 7,324.63 +1.5%

• Russell 2000 1,592.54 +.3%

• S&P 500 High Beta 45.23 +1.03%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 146.07 -.68%

• Wilshire 5000 28,959.60 +1.10%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,431.89 +1.62%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,264.67 +.81%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 597.34 +2.09%

• Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.5855 +.96%
  

• NYSE Technology 1,828.50 +2.36%

• Transports 11,262.20 -.28%

• Utilities 683.60 -.86%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 105.55 +.09%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 50.05 +2.82%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,303.70 -.28%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,011.16 +.19%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 315,338 -.39%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 661 -767

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 34.6 -39.4%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 657,590 +5.4%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,545,313 +2.6%

• Total Put/Call .87 +17.6%

• OEX Put/Call .97 +206.3%

• ISE Sentiment 124.0 +23.7%

• NYSE Arms 1.43 +101.44%

• Volatility(VIX) 11.5 +16.5%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 33.29 -4.4%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.54 +6.1% 

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.98 +5.98%

• Smart Money Flow Index 20,448.55 -.29%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.816 Trillion -.71%

• ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$3.065 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 54.1 +11.2%

• AAII % Bears 21.4 -14.7%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 195.48 +.21%

• Crude Oil 63.37 -.3%

• Reformulated Gasoline 186.17 +1.68%

• Natural Gas 3.18 +2.17%

• Heating Oil 205.50 -1.13%

• Gold 1,333.50 +.81%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 213.59 +.95%

• Copper 318.60 -1.19%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 314.60 USD/Metric Tonne +8.5%

• China Iron Ore Spot 522.0 CNY/100 Metric Tonnes +2.8%

• Lumber 479.50 +3.23%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 998.45 -.63%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.4% +60.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 4.5% +120.0 basis points
  

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .4191 -.4% 

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 69.4 -61.3%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 152.86 +.93%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 61.50 -8.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 54.60 -3.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.0 -.4 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 82.0% chance of no change, 18.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 1/31

• US Dollar Index 90.62 -.35%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,702.41 +.42%

• Bitcoin/USD 11,315.90 -17.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.90 -.20%

• Yield Curve 58.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.63% +8.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.399 Trillion -.16%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 23.75 unch.

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 251.79 -.03%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 139.5 -.75 basis point

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 10.53 +4.0%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 32.37 +.19%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 51.35 -9.16%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 44.92 +3.42%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 113.0 +2.56%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 146.81 +.25%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.06% +4.0 basis points

• TED Spread 31.75 +3.75 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.25 +1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.50 -2.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 47.87 +1.79%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 325.0 +1.37%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 43.25 +1.53%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 113.97 +3.93%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 161.0 -2.0 basis points
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.657 Trillion +2.79%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,118.6 +.7%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 244,500 -6,250

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.4% +10.0 basis points
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.04% +5.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 406.30 +4.1%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 53.8 +.3 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +3.0% -40.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.54/gallon +.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,139.0 -10.94%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 813.0 +2.73%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 22.5 +12.5%

• Rail Freight Carloads 270,586 +30.6%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +1.6%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value unch.

Leading Sectors

• Gaming +5.5%

• Semis +4.3%

• Robotics +3.8%

• Computer Hardware +3.1%

• Healthcare Providers +2.9%

Lagging Sectors

• Steel -.7% 

• Utilities -.9%

• Shipping -1.2%

• Alt Energy -1.9%

• Oil Service -2.4%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (16)

• JUNO, EXPI, ESIO, JNCE, HAWK, MRTX, COUP, RLH, VIA, LADR, LQ, BLK, ENR, WIFI, WOW and VICI

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (24)

• PLYA, AVXS, ETH, AFL, DMRC, AGIO, SYF, PBI, PLXS, PNFP, BOOT, HTZ, FRAC, F, KBH, GME, ADNT, TSRO, EXAS, GDEN, ALB, PRTK, SCOR and CNCE

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Diminished Govt Shutdown Worries, Earnings Optimism, Short-Covering, Retail/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 11.47 -6.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.03 -.46%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.98 +1.4%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 33.25 -.75%

• ISE Sentiment Index 124.0 +17.0%
  

• Total Put/Call .85 +2.41%

• NYSE Arms 1.47 +86.90%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 47.74 +.32%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 325.0 +3.71%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 43.14 +.37%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 139.5 -2.25 basis points
  

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.47 +.57%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 114.14 +1.79%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 146.81 +.04%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.25 -.5 basis point

• TED Spread 31.75 +2.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.5 -1.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.63 -.13%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.43% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 58.25 +1.5 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 522.0 CNY/100 Metric Tonnes unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 61.50 -3.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 54.60 -.7 basis point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.0 -.7 basis point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.07 -2.0 basis points
  
• 88.2% chance of Fed rate hike at March 21 meeting, 88.2% chance at May 2 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +38 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +79 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/retail/tech/medical sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Computer Services -1.6% 2) Energy -.4% 3) Airlines -.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• IPHI, TEAM, MWA, XON and LITE

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SN 2) SEAS 3) ACAD 4) SGYP 5) MAT

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NNA 2) IPHI 3) MWA 4) MKC 5) WNS

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Retail +1.3% 2) Paper +1.1% 3) Robotics +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GDEN, LABL, AGIO, SIEN, RCKT, JNCE, ACOR, TUSK, UL, SHG, GSUM, IOVA, MLNX, GDS, CP, MNTA, BHVN, LBRDK, OPY, ITT, OKTA, PTC, SNDX, CRCM, ATRA, COLL, GLYC, AAOI, SUPN, KEM, CRCM, RXN, WYN, AGIO, KLXI and APTI

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FOSL 2) AXP 3) HTZ 4) CL 5) FTNT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) OCUL 2) SQ 3) ANF 4) KSS 5) NKE

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +28.6% Above 100-Day Average
• 6 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 57.2% of Issues Advancing, 39.2% Declining
• 161 New 52-Week Highs, 40 New Lows
• 62.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 51.7%
• Vix 11.9 -2.5%
• Total Put/Call .92 +10.8%
• TRIN/Arms 1.12 +41.6%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Asian Currency Gains Could Fuel the Rally in Local Bonds. The rally in Asia’s local-currency bonds still has juice and the strength in the region’s currencies will support further gains by countering the impact of tighter monetary policies. That’s the message from Ng Kheng Siang, Singapore-based Asia Pacific head of fixed income at State Street Global Advisors. The firm, which has $2.7 trillion in assets, prefers bonds of Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia, and China, with its deleveraging efforts and the potential to be included in a major bond index, is a longer term play.

• China Crude Oil Production Shrinks. (video) 

• Hackers Have Walked Off With About 14% of Big Digital Currencies. (video) Digital currencies and the software developed to track them have become attractive targets for cybercriminals while also creating a lucrative new market for computer-security firms. In less than a decade, hackers have stolen $1.2 billion worth of Bitcoin and rival currency Ether, according to Lex Sokolin, global director of fintech strategy at Autonomous Research LLP. Given the currencies’ explosive surge at the end of 2017, the cost in today’s money is much higher. “It looks like crypto hacking is a $200 million annual revenue industry,” Sokolin said. Hackers have compromised more than 14 percent of the Bitcoin and Ether supply, he said.

• Asian Stocks Rise, Even in Face of Climb in Yields. (video) The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed, led by industrial stocks and consumer staples, while Japanese shares posted the largest gains. Equities in Hong Kong and Sydney were flat, while those in Shanghai advanced. Most major U.S. equity gauges dropped in a choppy session Thursday. Yields on 10-year Treasuries pierced 2.63 percent, within a basis point of the highest since 2014. Japan’s Topix index rose 0.6 percent as of 10:39 a.m. in Tokyo. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index were little changed. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fluctuated and South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.2 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.1 percent after the underlying gauge slipped 0.2 percent Thursday, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 0.4 percent.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• JPMorgan(JPM). Boosts Dimon's Pay 5.4% to $29.5 Million for 2017. 

• ETF Bargain Hunters Snag $584 Million of Low-Cost Fidelity Funds. It looks like a big exchange-traded fund investor went out bargain hunting and picked up some sector funds on the cheap. Five of Fidelity Investments’s sector ETFs took in unprecedented amounts of cash Wednesday, totaling about $584 million, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The funds, which provide exposure to stocks in health care, industrials, financials, consumer discretionary and information technology, are also known for their discounted costs, only charging 8 basis points apiece.

• U.S. Refiners Are Riding High With Strong Margins, Tax Boost.

Wall Street Journal:

• House Passes Stopgap Budget Bill; Senate Resistance Remains as Shutdown Looms. House moves closer to passing spending measure but senators come out against it.

• Six Chinese Ships Covertly Aided North Korea. The U.S. Was Watching. Intelligence gathered by American officials provides what they say is detailed evidence of sanctions violations.

• Tax Reform’s Apple(AAPL) Dividend. $38 billion in taxes finances a lot of Social Security checks.

• SEC Pours Cold Water on Prospect of Bitcoin ETFs. Regulator warns Wall Street not to look for loopholes to offer funds tracking bitcoin.

• Trump Angry at His Chief of Staff Over Comment President ‘Not Fully Informed’ on Border Wall Issue. President tweeted ‘the Wall is the Wall, it has never changed or evolved from the first day I conceived of it’.

• White House Considering San Francisco Fed President John Williams for Fed’s No. 2 Job. Trump administration also has considered Richard Clarida, Lawrence Lindsey and Mohamed El-Erian for vice chairman.

MarketWatch.com

• With the new tax law, you need to update your estate plan.

Fox News:

• The absurdity of government 'shutdowns'. (video)

CNBC:

• Trump says he called and thanked Tim Cook after Apple(AAPL) revealed its US investment plan.

• IBM(IBM) shares fall despite first growth in 23 quarters. (video)

• Apple(AAPL) and others bringing home foreign cash may be a big enough force to boost the US dollar.

• The Dow's 31% gain during Trump's first year is the best since FDR.

• Stock market's value under Trump has grown by $6.9 trillion to $30.6 trillion.

• Football protests could hurt Super Bowl LII viewership. The politicization of football this season may hurt Super Bowl LII viewership, according to two new surveys commissioned by CNBC. Just over half of U.S. adults plan to watch the big game this year, according to a survey conducted this week by Fluent, a data-driven marketing firm. Of the respondents who said they won't watch the game but did last year, a quarter said it's because football has gotten too political.

• Texas Instruments'(TXN) long-time CEO is stepping down after the stock rallied 57 percent in the past year.

Zero Hedge:

• The "World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund" Has A "Stunning" Theory What Happens Next To The Dollar. (graph)

• Chinese Government Propaganda is Being Enthusiastically Embraced at U.S. Universities.

• Why California Has The Nation's Worst Poverty Rate.

• India Test Fires Nuclear-Capable ICBM, Poses Major Threat To China.

• Ex-Twitter(TWTR) Engineer Admits Company Colludes With Oppressive Governments To Ban Users.

• ICE Plans Largest Raid On Northern California Illegals After State Passes Sanctuary Legislation.

• Amazon(AMZN) Unveils 20 City Finalists For HQ2, Expects To Create 50,000 Jobs In Winning City.

• Sweden Is Preparing For A "Civil War": PM Wants To Deploy Army In No-Go Zones.

• Comey's Former Chief Of Staff Testifies On Clinton Email Investigation, Her Exoneration, And More.

• Crypto Comeback Continues As Stocks, Bonds, Dollar Sink. (graph)

Business Insider:

• Some cryptocurrency traders in South Korea took the bitcoin 'bloodbath' to a whole new level.

• American Express(AXP) falls despite earnings beat (AXP).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 62.0 +.5 basis point. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 10.5 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.78 +.08%.

• S&P 500 futures +.08%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (FHN)/.29

• (KSU)/1.36

• (RF)/.26

• (SLB)/.45

• (STI)/1.05

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• The Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment Index for January is estimated to rise to 97.0 versus 95.9 in December.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The govt. funding deadline and the UK retail sales report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.