Friday, January 19, 2018

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Diminished Govt Shutdown Worries, Earnings Optimism, Short-Covering, Retail/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.47 -6.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.03 -.46%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.98 +1.4%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 33.25 -.75%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 124.0 +17.0%
  • Total Put/Call .85 +2.41%
  • NYSE Arms 1.47 +86.90%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 47.74 +.32%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 325.0 +3.71%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 43.14 +.37%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 139.5 -2.25 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.47 +.57%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 114.14 +1.79%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 146.81 +.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 20.25 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 31.75 +2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.5 -1.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.63 -.13%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.43% unch.
  • Yield Curve 58.25 +1.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 522.0 CNY/100 Metric Tonnes unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 61.50 -3.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 54.60 -.7 basis point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.0 -.7 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.07 -2.0 basis points
  • 88.2% chance of Fed rate hike at March 21 meeting, 88.2% chance at May 2 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +38 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +79 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/retail/tech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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