Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Profit-Taking, Govt Shutdown Worries, Yen Strength, Retail/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.1 +18.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.05 -.15%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.76 +1.31%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 34.78 +5.8%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 107.0  +10.3%
  • Total Put/Call .68 -8.11%
  • NYSE Arms 1.25 +.92%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.19 +2.79%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 318.0 -.09%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 42.68 -1.04%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 140.75 +.5 basis point
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 9.89 +.61%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 110.34 +.78%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 146.78 +.13%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 20.0 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 27.25 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.75 -.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.55 -.15%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.42% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 52.75 -2.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 506.50 CNY/100 Metric Tonnes +.40%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 65.60 -4.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 56.60 -1.7 basis points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.1 -1.3 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.04 +2.0 basis points
  • 88.2% chance of Fed rate hike at March 21 meeting, 88.7% chance at May 2 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -251 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +35 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -98 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved 75% Net Long

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