Thursday, January 11, 2018

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Economic Optimism, Earnings Outlooks, Lower Long-Term Rates, Retail/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 9.79 -.31%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.39 +.47%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.47 -1.58%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 33.59 -.09%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +.25%
  • Total Put/Call .69 -1.43%
  • NYSE Arms .63 +8.31%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 46.85 +.41%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 330.0 -2.27%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 43.10 -2.05%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 147.0 -2.5 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.44 +.48%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 110.78 -1.92%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 146.56 -.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.0 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 28.5 +1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -26.25 -1.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.19 +.55%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.43% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 55.75 -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 520.0 CNY/100 Metric Tonnes unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 63.20 -3.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 59.70 +1.4 basis points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.2 -.2 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.02 -2.0 basis points
  • 79.8% chance of Fed rate hike at March 21 meeting, 80.3% chance at May 2 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +50 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +53 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/retail/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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