Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Diminished Geopolitical Tensions, Less Trade War Talk, Earnings Optimism, Road & Rail/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.9 -3.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.04 +.14%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.17 -1.68%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 43.47 +2.0%

• ISE Sentiment Index 82.0 unch.
  

• Total Put/Call .90 -8.16%

• NYSE Arms 1.0 -6.73%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.46 -3.61%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 425.0 -1.36%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.51 -1.6%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 127.75 -.75 basis point
  

• Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.52 +.68%

• Emerging Market CDS Index 138.72 -.96%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 149.32 +.07%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 30.75 -1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 59.0 -.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.5 +1.25 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.72 +.20%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.74% -1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 45.5 -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 63.80 USD/Metric Tonne +.20%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 21.80 -3.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -87.80 +1.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.5 -10.1 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.13 -1.0 basis point
  
• 88.6% chance of Fed rate hike at June 13 meeting, 89.3% chance at August 1 meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -20 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +4 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +24 open in Germany

Portfolio: 

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech/retail medical sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -.6% 2) Oil Service -.3% 3) Steel -.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ACIA, BPMC, BMY, LITE, HCSG, IPHI, FN, NKTR, NOV, CLVS and MNRO

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MDXG 2) ILG 3) FIT 4) CAH 5) BMY

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ACIA 2) DF 3) CROX 4) ALGT 5) OCLR

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gaming +2.1% 2) Road & Rail +2.1% 3) Healthcare Providers +2.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CARG, IUSG, ALKS, TRNC, ERI, CCJ, NAV, USMV, TCP, NXST, VNOM, ILG, CVNA, FSCT, WING, APLS, RGNX, JBHT, LOXO, APOG, NOBL, GKOS, MRK, FCB and GKOS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VFC 2) MAT 3) V 4) NAV 5) COST

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) BIG 2) MS 3) DG 4) DLTR 5) DTE

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -17.9% Below 100-Day Average
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 69.7% of Issues Advancing, 27.6% Declining
• 53 New 52-Week Highs, 34 New Lows
• 41.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.3%
• Vix 16.8 -3.7%
• Total Put/Call .89 -9.2%
• TRIN/Arms 1.44 +33.9%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• U.K. Pushes Back Against More Syria Strikes as U.S. Talks Tough.  

• China's Economy Poised to Brush Off Trump Threats, Debt Campaign. The economy is expected to have tuned out all the background noise and powered ahead in the first quarter. According to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey, growth maintained a 6.8 percent pace, well ahead of a target for about 6.5 percent expansion this year.

• Syria Strike Isn't Causing Panic in Mideast Markets, Analysts Say.

• Russia Gambles That Its Debt Is Too Popular to Sanction.

• Asian Stocks Set for Muted Start; Yen Slips.  Asian equities faced a slightly weaker start to the week after a dip in U.S. shares on Friday and the yen slipped as traders largely took the U.S.-led strike on Syria in their stride. Futures on most Asia Pacific stock markets pointed to a marginally lower open on Monday after the S&P 500 Index declined 0.3 percent. The yen declined amid international reaction to the Syrian strike and as polls showed falling support for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government. The dollar edged lower as CFTC data showed hedge funds are the most bearish on the greenback in five years.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• The Real Worry for Oil Prices Isn't Missiles Over Syria.  

• Wall Street Economists See Global Growth Cresting Not Collapsing.

Wall Street Journal:

• A Day After U.S. Airstrikes in Syria, Assad Launches New Onslaught Against Rebels. Syria’s civil war ground on with Mr. Assad’s forces moving against areas outside regime control.

• Why Merck(MRK) Is Betting Big on One Cancer Drug. Global sales of more than $3.8 billion for Keytruda in 2017 spur efforts to develop more potential uses. 

• U.S.’s Re-Entry in Pacific Trade Deal Would Come at a Price. Other nations, and Washington, likely will each seek concessions on a new TPP.

Fox News: 

• Barbara Bush to focus on comfort care amid 'failing health,' spokesman says. (video)

CNBC:

• Starbucks(SBUX), Chipotle(CMG) and others are offering up a new employee perk: Paying for their education.

• How bitcoin is fueling America's opioid crisis. (video)

• James Comey said disclosure of Clinton email probe was to prevent her from being seen as 'illegitimate'.

Zero Hedge: 

• In Raging Tweetstorm, Trump Slams "Slippery" James Comey "As Worst FBI Director In History".

• Trump "Mission Accomplished" Sparks Stock Buying Spree; Investors Dump Bonds & Bullion. (graph)

• Obama And Lynch "Jeopardized" Clinton Email Investigation: Comey.

• China Considers Taking Its Boot Off Equity Market's Throat. (graph)

• "Everybody Wants To Leave California..."

• Morgan Stanley: "This Will Not Be The Wipeout Scenario That Permabears Have Been Warning About For 8 Years".

Business Insider:

• Competitive video games could be as big as Major League Baseball — here's what it's like to be an e-sports athlete at the highest level.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are unch. to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.75 -2.0 basis points.

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 12.5 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.54 -.04%. 

• FTSE 100 futures +.38%.

• S&P 500 futures +.56%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.57%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

• (BAC)/.59

• (SCHW)/.54

• (JNHT)/1.06

• (MTB)/2.77

• (CE)/2.33

• (NFLX)/.63

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for April is estimated to fall to 18.2 versus 22.5 in March.

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for March is estimated to rise +.4% versus a -.1% decline in February.

• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in February.

• Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas for March is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in February.

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for February is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.6% gain in January.

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for April is estimated at 70.0 versus 70.0 in March.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for February.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bostic speaking, German Wholesale Price report, (CRM) investor meeting and the (BMY) investor event could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters. 

• Weekly Market Outlook by Yahoo. (video)

• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.

• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on diminished geopolitical tensions, less trade war rhetoric, earnings optimism, bargain-hunting, technical buying and yen weakness. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.