Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Banks +1.5% 2) Oil Service +1.0% 3) Construction +.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GCI, GG, BOOT, SJR, FBNC, LULU, BPT, OMER, SBS, CNOB, LBTYK, BBT, INSP, C, PARR, WRLD, MTN, RDC, PTLA, THO, WGO, DXR, SSB, ROKU and YETI

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) KEY 2) GRPN 3) EQT 4) HAS 5) SYMC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LULU 2) HRS 3) GCI 4) YETI 5) NOC

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -3.2% Below 100-Day Average
• 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 37.7% of Issues Advancing, 59.2% Declining
• 6 New 52-Week Highs, 17 New Lows
• 24.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 52.5%
• Vix 19.4 +6.8%
• Total Put/Call 1.14 +6.5%
• TRIN/Arms .69 -25.0%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:   

• Xi’s Leading China Toward Stagnation.  

• Visa(V) and Mastercard’s(MA) Chinese Entry Delayed by Central Bank: FT.

• Labour Vows Confidence Vote as May Faces Defeat on Brexit Deal.

• Italy Finance Minister Sees Economy in Stagnation, Not Recession.   

• ECB's Nowotny Urges Caution on Rate Increases as Growth Slows.

• Viacom in Talks to Sell Majority Stake in China Operations: WSJ.

• Traders Suddenly Dare to Believe in an Emerging-Market Rally.

• Asian Stocks to Start Mixed With Earnings in Focus. Asian stocks were poised for a mixed start on Monday, following the best week for regional stocks since the start of November, as investors awaited a raft of earnings and trade data from China. The yuan held recent gains. Futures indicated a small decline when equity trading begins in Hong Kong and Australia’s main index fluctuated at the open. Japan is closed for a holiday, so Treasuries won’t trade until the London open. U.S. equity futures slipped after the S&P 500 on Friday closed flat and the yield on 10-year Treasuries declined. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slid 0.2 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.1 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 slid 0.3 percent.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.  

• U.S. Recession Warning Signs, China's 2019 To-Do List: Eco Day.

• Saudis Say OPEC+ Oil Cuts on ‘Right Track’ to Balance the Market.

• Bill Gross's Bond-Fund Assets Decline Below $1 Billion.

• FedEx(FDX) Tests Adding Full-Service Home Delivery of Bulky Goods.

Wall Street Journal: 

• GOP Senator Pushes Temporary Deal to Open Government.

• White House Sought Options to Strike Iran.

• Border Wall Impasse Frustrates Many New House Democrats.

• Slow Earnings Growth, Dim Forecasts Weigh on Stocks.

• California’s Next Ban: Paper Receipts.

MarketWatch.com:

• Tech finds a middle lane for autonomous cars at CES.

• This popular stock-market checklist from Citi says the bull is alive and well.

Fox News:

• Sarah Sanders, RNC chair McDaniel slam lawmakers for Puerto Rico trip as shutdown rolls on.

• FOX NEWS EXCLUSIVE: Trump says he did not hide details of Putin talk.

• Republican says his Comey questions uncovered FBI investigation of Trump.

CNBC:

• Currency chart points to bullish activity in stocks, oil.

• The ten hottest cars debuting at the Detroit auto show.

• Early research on Apple’s Health Records service suggests patients generally like it. 

• Saudi energy minister: Russia moving ‘slower than I’d like’ on oil cuts.

Zero Hedge:  

• Trump "Couldn't Care Less" If Putin Conversation Becomes Public; Slams "Most Insulting Article" By NYT.

• As FBI Ramped Up "Witch Hunt" When Trump Fired Comey, Strzok Admitted Collusion Investigation A Joke.

• Trump Threatens To "Devastate Turkey Economically" If Kurds Attacked, Sends Lira Sliding.

• Illinois Is "National Outlier" When It Comes To Losing Residents.   

• The Shutdown Is Providing Evidence Of Private Businesses Making Government Obsolete.

• Fake News? How About No News?

• US Electric Grid Hacked: Perpetrators Could Have Shut Down The System.

• Theresa May Could Be Removed As Soon As Wednesday If Vote On Brexit Deal Fails.

• Real Tax Rates In The 60s Were Much Lower Than Ocasio-Cortez Thinks.

• Trump: "I Haven't Left The White House Since The Shutdown Began".

• Furloughed Federal Employees Are Still Paid More Than You.

• "China's Nightmare": B-2 Stealth Bombers Deployed To Hawaii, "On Watch" 24/7.

• Political Nightmares Multiply For Europe Ahead Of Davos.

• Model Reveals Diet Secrets Of The Insta-Fabulous: "Tapas And Cocaine".

• Chinese Super Soldiers Are Using These Futuristic Weapons. 

Business Insider:

• Pakistan abruptly stopped calling out China's mass oppression of Muslims. Critics say Beijing bought its silence.

• Bed Bath & Beyond's(BBBY) stores have been called 'a mess,' but the chain might be starting to turn that around. 

• Microsoft President Brad Smith says these are the 10 biggest challenges facing tech in 2019.  

• A drug that works differently from all existing depression drugs just got a big boost.

• The future of artificial intelligence in retail.

Telegraph:

• Germany flirts with recession, but Italy and France will bear the brunt.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.50 +.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 61.5 -1.75 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.88 -.05%.

• FTSE 100 futures -.22%.

• S&P 500 futures -.45%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.49%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (C)/1.55

• (SJR)/.31

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Trade Balance report, Deutsche Bank China Conference and the (AEO) business update could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly lower, weighed down by financial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters. 

• Weekly Market Outlook by Yahoo. (video)

• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.

• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as China trade deal optimism, dovish FOMC commentary and oil strength offset earnings outlook worries, technical selling and government shutdown concerns. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:      

• China Seeks to Resolve Trade Spat With U.S. in 2019, Zhong Says.

• Everything’s a Buy in China as Bulls Snap Up Yuan, Stocks, Bonds. 

• Brazil's Outgoing Central Bank Chief Sees Strong Growth Ahead.

• Huawei Fires Employee Arrested in Poland on China Spy Claim.

• In the Riskiest Corners of the Stock Market, Exuberance Is Back.

• Two Big Producers Just Called a Bottom for Oil: $60 a Barrel.   

• Netflix’s $45 Billion Rally Sets Up Earnings Showdown Next Week.  

• Bond Traders Bedeviled by Absent Data in Gauging Economy's Path.  

• Biotech Stocks Are Enjoying Their Best-Ever Start to the Year.

• Well, That Was Fast. So Are the Bulls Back in Charge, Now?  

• Winter Storm Gia Strikes Midwest as Airlines Cancel, Waive Fees.

• Citigroup(C) Gets a Turn to Lead Bank Stocks Into Earnings Season.

Wall Street Journal:

• Shutdown Set to Eclipse Longest in Modern History.

• The Big Hangup: Why the Future Is Not Just Your Phone.

• In Fast-Aging Japan, Elder Care Is a High-Tech Pursuit.

• Trump Administration Plans Effort to Let States Remodel Medicaid.

• U.S. Probes Boeing Satellite Deal Backed by China.

• Vanguard to Pull Trading Plug on About 400 Products.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (BMY) and (DAL).

MarketWatch.com:

• Why was the U.S. Postal Service at CES?

Fox News

• Florida airport to close terminal as TSA workers call in sick at double the rate during record shutdown.

• NEWT GINGRICH: Reported FBI probe of Trump led by betrayers of Constitution.

CNBC:  

• Stocks rise more than 2% for the week.

• Chinese consumers are taking sides in the trade war, and that’s bad news for US companies: Cramer.

• Earnings season may turn up some stock market winners after December’s battering.

• Why Apple’s fall from grace is opening up other ways to profit from battered technology stocks.

Zero Hedge:

• Trump Goes On Epic Tweetstorm After NYT Reveals FBI "Witch Hunt" Escalation Following Comey Firing.

• Watch Absolute Mayhem As Yellow Vests Battle French Riot Police In 9th Week Of Protests.

• Elon Musk's SpaceX Plans To Terminate 10% Of Its Workforce.

• VC Spending Hit An All-Time High In 2018 Thanks To Tech Bubble 2.0.

• Megyn Kelly Leaves NBC With $30 Million Payout.

• Washington's Latest Match Made In Hell.

• France, Germany To Merge Economic And Defense Policies; Create Cross-Border "Eurodistricts".

• Why This Iraq War Veteran Has Created Panic In The Democratic Party.

• AT&T Stops Selling Location Data Of Americans To Bounty Hunters.

• The Internet Of Things Data Explosion.

• China Using Twitter History To Arrest, Interrogate Dissidents.

• CNN Cancels On San Diego TV Station After They Report Border Wall Works.

• "We Don't Take Orders From Bolton": US Withdrawal From Syria Begins.

• "Definitely Risk On" As Investors Plow Billions Into Risk Assets.

• Mayor de Blasio Says New York's Wealth Is "In The Wrong Hands" And Should Be Redistributed.

• BTFDove - Stocks Extend Best Run In 10 Years Off Mnuchin Massacre Lows.

Business Insider:

• Robots are taking over CES — check out the weirdest ones we saw at the show.  The Rock says 'generation snowflake' is 'looking for a reason to be offended'.

• Whole Foods halts growth of its cheaper '365' stores.

• The TSA is giving unpaid security screeners a $500 bonus during the government shutdown.

• There's a simple reason why your new smart TV was so affordable: It's collecting and selling your data.

The Telegraph:

• Comment: Why Trump and China both want to end the trade war.

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,591.24 +2.27%

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 
Indices

• DJIA 23,929.40 +2.09%

• NASDAQ 6,959.30 +3.24%

• Russell 2000 1,447.02 +4.71%

• S&P 500 High Beta 37.88 +5.08%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 148.51 +7.15%

• Wilshire 5000 26,720.0 +2.69%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,364.85 +2.88%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,131.65 +2.15%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 528.99 +.41%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,015.02 +1.04%
  

• NYSE Technology 1,657.0 +4.56%

• Transports 9,609.40 +4.17%

• Utilities 712.34 -.05%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 74.91 +1.05%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 40.58 +3.54%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,183.35 +1.46%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 971.03 -.29%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 320,764 +2.21%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -22 +239

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 52.94 -5.14%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 309,608 n/a

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,063,376 n/a

• Total Put/Call 1.11 +24.2%

• OEX Put/Call 2.60 +146.08%

• ISE Sentiment 107.0 -2.36%

• NYSE Arms .91 +123.68%

• Volatility(VIX) 18.62 -12.7%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.01 -5.55%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.17 -7.37%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.56 -.21%

• Smart Money Flow Index 12,418.85 +5.52%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.066 Trillion+.63%

• ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows n/a

• AAII % Bulls 38.5 +16.5%

• AAII % Bears 29.4 -31.3%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 178.08 +2.57%

• Crude Oil 51.75 +6.44%

• Reformulated Gasoline 140.93 +2.82%

• Natural Gas 3.14 +2.27%

• Heating Oil 188.53 +5.34%

• Gold 1,288.50 +.22%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 174.88 +.28%

• Copper 265.65 +.53%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 283.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.07%

• China Iron Ore Spot 72.29 USD/Metric Tonne +.33%

• Lumber 343.10 +3.95%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 937.02 +1.11%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.79% +20.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -6.5% -120.0 basis points
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 25.0% +5.0 percentage points

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .2870 -2.25%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 499.64 +119.70%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 172.0 -.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.10 +5.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -88.60 -13.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -20.3 -6.3 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 99.5% chance of no change, .5% chance of 25 basis point hike on 1/30

• US Dollar Index 95.67-.6%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,637.28 +.79%

• Bitcoin/USD 3,650.0 -4.73%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.27 +.60%

• Yield Curve 15.75 -1.75 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.70% +4.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.017 Trillion -.05%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.37 +5.58%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 201.25 -.02%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 261.50 -7.5 basis points

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 61.41 -10.7%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 75.20 -3.7%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 65.0 -2.82%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 36.38 -6.5%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 142.44 -7.96%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 153.51 +.52%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.82% +6.0 basis points

• TED Spread 37.75 -1.75 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 15.75 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .25 -1.25 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 77.77 -8.52%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 713.0 -13.15%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 104.59 -7.5%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 195.67 -1.22%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.750 Trillion -1.3%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,073.0 +2.60%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 221,750 +3,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.45% -6.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 362.70 +23.5%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 58.5 -1.1 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +7.90% +20.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.24/gallon -.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,189.0 -5.63%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 854.81 +1.55%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 -9.1%

• Rail Freight Carloads 214,344 +6.5%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +5.6%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +2.3%

Leading Sectors

• Road & Rail +8.4%

• Homebuilding +8.2%

• Oil Service +7.7%

• Disk Drives +7.5%

• Gaming +7.0%

Lagging Sectors

• Banks +1.5% 

• Gold & Silver +.4%

• Drugs +.3%

• Utilities +.2%

• Education -1.8%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (11)

• SNX, PVH, GM, BBBY, EYE, COWN, BOLD, IPHI, TPIC, NFLX and APLS

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (2)

• WDR and WTW

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change