Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Biotech +2.0% 2) Disk Drives +1.5% 3) Computer Hardware +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CMTA, ONCE, STMP, LABL, QURE, CAF, CRSP, PSCH, AKCA, CRI, HMI, ORTX, RGNX, YRD, IGV, DHR, LX, BIB, TENB, HUYA, W, ETSY, VIOT, PLAN, BMRN, BLUE, BOLD, GE, WAB, VYGR, IIPR, FTCH, MCFT, DIOD, EDIT, PBYI, TEX, ADTN, RTRX, CBLK and OLED

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ASHR 2) KPTI 3) BERY 4) MTW 5) DHI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CMTA 2) TEX 3) NFE 4) W 5) WAB

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +5.3% Above 100-Day Average
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 56.9% of Issues Advancing, 40.6% Declining
• 140 New 52-Week Highs, 6 New Lows
• 51.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 59.6%
• Vix 13.8 +2.3%
• Total Put/Call .69 -10.4%
• TRIN/Arms .97 -30.2%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:  

• Trump Extends China Tariff Deadline After ‘Substantial’ Progress.

• Debt Is Roaring Back in China.

• May Delays Brexit Vote to Buy Time as Ministers Threaten Revolt.  

• After Venezuela Aid Is Torched, Guaido Plots Bolder Measures.

• Wild Week Ahead: Trade, Brexit, Trump, Kim, Cohen and Powell.    

• Stocks Gain, Yuan Advances on Trade Optimism: Markets Wrap. Stocks built on recent gains amid positive signals emanating from trade negotiations. The yuan and the Australian dollar advanced, while Treasuries fell. President Donald Trump said he will delay the March 1 deadline for higher U.S. tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. That gave a modest lift to riskier assets, with Japan and South Korean shares opening higher and U.S. equity futures advancing. The yield on 10-year Treasuries nudged up. Japan’s Topix index gained 0.5 percent as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo. S&P 500 Index futures rose 0.4 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.3 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.4 percent.   

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• Trump vs Trade Czar, Xi's Lending Hurdle, Brexit Angst: Eco Day.

• Dubai Stocks Cross Resistance Level Held For a Year: Inside EM.

• ‘Play-the-Pause’ Trading Strategies Gain Traction on Wall Street.  

• With Fed Eyeing Inflation Overshoot, JPMorgan Likes Gold, TIPS.

Wall Street Journal:

• Pope Vows to Combat Sex Abuse but Offers Few Policy Specifics.

• Stocks Tied to Economic Growth Push Dow Industrials Toward New High.

• Frackers Face Harsh Reality as Wall Street Backs Away.

• Maduro’s Opposition Urges Military Force in Venezuela.

• Fed Embarks on a Rethink of Its Inflation Target.

MarketWatch.com:

• Both Republicans and Democrats are too complacent about the budget deficit.

• It’s the best start for the stock market in 32 years by one measure — so why is Wall Street so uneasy?

Fox News:

• DNC Chair Perez says GOP derides socialism to distract from real issues.

• Pompeo rips lawsuit from family of ISIS wife, says she’s 'non-citizen terrorist'.

CNBC:

• Trump extends deadline for Chinese tariffs set to begin on March 1, citing progress on trade.

• Huawei’s new foldable phone will top both Apple and Samsung in price, costing around $2600.

• Trump is right that the US risks losing the 5G race, Huawei chairman say.

• China rushes to seal trade deal ahead of Trump's deadline.

• 2016 all over again? Why historically low global interest rates could make a comeback this year.

Zero Hedge:       

• Trump Delays March 1 China Tariff Deadline.

• Berkshire Letter Highlights: Shocking $25BN Loss; Buffet Bashes "Deficit Doomsayers", Emerges As Closet "Austrian".

• New York Bus, Subway Ridership Tumbles, Leaving MTA Scrambling.

• Venezuela Aid Trucks Set Ablaze As Maduro Tells Trump: "Yankee, Go Home".

• The Benefits Of Brexit.

• Video: Iran Hacks Into CENTCOM, Crashes MQ-9 Reaper Drone.

• Microsoft Workers Revolt Over $480 Million Defense Contract.

• Americans Call Their Government America's Top Problem.

• Watch China Cut BBC Live Feed When Correspondent Mentions Muslim Internment Camps.

• Saturday Satire - Smollett Offered CNN Job After Making Up Story Out Of Thin Air.

• AOC's Latest Nanny-State Proclamation: Americans Must "Eat Fewer Hamburgers" To Stop Climate Change.

Business Insider:

• British MPs will only get a meaningful vote 2 weeks before the UK is due to exit the EU, Theresa May says. 

• After a big privacy backlash, Google’s Nest explains which of its products have microphones and why.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.50 -1.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 49.75 -1.75 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 68.29 +.12%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.08%.

• S&P 500 futures +.32%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.40%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (CRI)/2.56

• (MDR)/.18

• (TEN)/1.43

After the Close:

• (ETSY)/.28

• (CRZO)/.55

• (HTZ)/.90

• (MOS)/.57

• (RCIOI)/.20

• (SHAK)/.03

• (THC)/.29

• (TEX)/.47

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Jan.

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in Nov.

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Dec.

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to 4.8 versus 1.0 in Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 2/5-Year T-Note auctions, Mexico GDP report, Mobile World Congress, Morgan Stanley Tech/Media/Telecom Conference, JMP Securities Tech Conference, (ETH) investor meeting and the BofA Merrill Animal Health Summit could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters. 
• Weekly Market Outlook by Yahoo. (video)
• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.
• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on dovish FOMC commentary, China trade deal hopes, diminished global growth fears,  technical buying, yen weakness and oil strength. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 

• Fiery Skirmishes Erupt as Guaido Tries to Bring Venezuela Aid.

• France Vows to Continue Fight Against Jihadists in Mali.

• Roche Nears $5 Billion Deal to Buy Spark Therapeutics: WSJ.

Wall Street Journal:   

• China Trade Talks Extended as Trump Pushes to Close Deal.

• Buffett’s Kraft Heinz Bet Dragged Down Berkshire Hathaway.

• Saturday Essay: The Failure of the French Elite.

• Vote Fraud, in the Flesh.

• On-Demand Grandkids and Robot Pals to Keep Senior Loneliness at Bay. 

• Venezuela Troops Defect as Tensions Flare in Border Showdown.

• ‘Apex Legends’ Is EA’s Move to Out-Fortnite ‘Fortnite’.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (CSCO), (CIEN), (IAU), (ENTG), (JNPR), (BIDU), (BABA) and (MO).

• Had bearish commentary on (NVDA).

Fox News:

• Wall Street mogul, ex-Citigroup president among those caught up in sex sting that ensnared Kraft.

CNBC:

• Venezuela protests flare, soldiers defect as border operation to deliver aid commences.

• Salesforce, Dell and 8 other top tech companies hiring remote workers now.

Zero Hedge:

• Wall Street Legends Identified In Florida Prostitution Sting.

• Judge Rules Plea Deal For "Orgy Island Billionaire" Broke Federal Law.

• Berkshire Letter Highlights: Shocking $25BN Loss; Buffet Bashes "Deficit Doomsayers", Emerges As Closet "Austrian".

• Kim Departs For Hanoi As Second Meeting With Trump Looms.

• Theresa May Facing Pressure To Quit Within Three Months.

• Saul Alinsky's 13 Rules For 'Have-Nots' To Gain Power.

• S&P Warns Global Sovereign Debt Will Top $50 Trillion This Year.

• Pennsylvania & The Folly Of Minimum Wage Laws.

• Smollett Now Has An "Untreated Drug Problem" As 'Empire' Mulls Recast.

• Smartphone Apps Sending "Intensely Personal Information" To Facebook - Whether Or Not You Have An Account.

• Mueller Report Won't Be Delivered Next Week.

• Dow Rallies To Best Start In 55 Years As Earnings, Economic Data Collapse.

Business Insider:

• Here are the biggest takeaways from Warren Buffett's annual letter.

• WARREN BUFFETT: We're hunting for an 'elephant-sized acquisition'.

• Photos show chaos in Venezuela as protesters and soldiers clash over humanitarian aid shipments.

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,792.67 +1.71%

 
























The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

 
Indices

• DJIA 25,998.82 +2.23%

• NASDAQ 7,511.48 +1.21%

• Russell 2000 1,586.33 +2.70%

• S&P 500 High Beta 41.54 +1.76%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 162.84 +3.39%

• Wilshire 5000 28,881.65 +1.68%

• Russell 1000 Growth 1,478.79 +1.21%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,213.72 +1.93%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 559.77 +1.13%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,038.44 +.61%
  

• NYSE Technology 1,810.47 +1.22%

• Transports 10,571.94 +.53%

• Utilities 756.70 +2.80%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 75.95 -1.43%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 42.94 +1.73%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,209.09 -.12%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 967.10 -.38%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 340,304 +1.09%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 138 +55

• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 46.34 -26.28%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 340,911 +1.81%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,042,018 -.33%

• Total Put/Call .74 -8.86%

• OEX Put/Call .36 -76.42%

• ISE Sentiment 176.0 +59.57%

• NYSE Arms 1.56 +37.96%

• Volatility(VIX) 13.97 -14.49%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 39.34 -9.44%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.1 -6.1%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.68 -1.36%

• Smart Money Flow Index 13,911.20 +1.36%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.072 Trillion -.33%

• ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$.155 Billion

• AAII % Bulls 39.3 +12.0%

• AAII % Bears 25.4 +1.28%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 184.06 +2.95%

• Crude Oil 57.18 +5.18%

• Reformulated Gasoline 160.63 +6.40%

• Natural Gas 2.70 +5.65%

• Heating Oil 202.73 +2.90%

• Gold 1,330.10 +1.30%

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 188.77 +3.92%

• Copper 294.55 +6.41%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 320.50 USD/Metric Tonne -1.38%

• China Iron Ore Spot 85.04 USD/Metric Tonne -.97%

• Lumber 396.80 -5.51%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 932.89 +1.59%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.42% -11.0 basis points

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -4.70% -40.0 basis points
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 25.0% unch.

• Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1910 +11.66%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 369.48 +417.12%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 171.10 -.03%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -23.40+.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -64.0 +15.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.0 +3.9 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 99.1% chance of no change, .9% chance of 25 basis point hike on 3/20

• US Dollar Index 96.48 -.47%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,644.89 +.57%

• Bitcoin/USD 3,938.60 +10.67%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.43 +.59%

• Yield Curve 16.50 +1.5 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.65% -1.0 basis point

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.942 Trillion -1.18%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 19.20 -1.16%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 194.89 -.02%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 275.25 +5.5 basis points

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 50.80 -5.73%
  

• Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 55.96 -.20%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 59.68 -1.17%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 30.71 -2.61%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 134.11 -8.13%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 158.27 +.76%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.92% +5.0 basis points

• TED Spread 22.75 -6.0 basis points

• 2-Year Swap Spread 10.5 -3.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.0 +1.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 62.15 -1.56%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 540.0 -3.44%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 82.40 -5.28%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 172.20 -.81%
  

• CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  

• M1 Money Supply $3.779 Trillion -.75%

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,060.70 unch.

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 235,750 +4,000

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.35% -2.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 365.30 +3.6%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 59.6 -.4 point

• Weekly Retail Sales +5.0% +40.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.39/gallon +.09/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 630.0 -1.41%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 878.77 -1.13%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 27.50 +37.5%

• Rail Freight Carloads 273,679 -1.38%

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +2.8%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +1.2%

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +6.7%

• Education +5.9%

• Alt Energy +5.6%

• Construction +5.1%

• Networking +4.0%

Lagging Sectors

• Airlines -.8% 

• Oil Service -1.0%

• Video Gaming -1.5%

• Foods -2.4%

• Foods -3.0%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (22)

• VYGR, OLED, ROKU, SWM, ACIA, HMSY, CBAY, BYD, BE, CBPX, LPSN, INTU, IIPR, INT, HTGC, FIX, LSCC, ITT, TILE, LNTH, NEM and PCTY

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (5)

• INOV, DXCM, BEAT, BJRI and NVRO

Weekly Charts

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change