Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -2.0% 2) Alt Energy -1.3% 3) Tobacco -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TWOU, ET, RUN, ELF, IRTC and SSYS

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CLVS 2) ET 3) RUN 4) LB 5) SWKS

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CHK 2) OSTK 3) NVTR 4) SENS 5) SDC

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Utilities +1.4% 2) REITs +1.1% 3) Telecom +.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CDLX, DDOG, SPB, ENR, CVET, FSLY, PETQ, HCAT, FIXX, EXEL, KOD, HALO, TVTY, ARVN, TRHC, INST, AXDX, VRS, ARWR, PSNL, RETA, CWH, EDIT, RVLV, TECD, HIIQ, PI, CHRS, CNST, AXSM, ESTC, UGI, EPRT, BPMP, DIS, REPH, CNNE, AVTR and SRPT

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HIIQ 2) MCHP 3) STAA 4) CLVS 5) APC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DDOG 2) ENR 3) CDLX 4) LK 5)TECD

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -1.6% Below 100-Day Average
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 46.0% of Issues Advancing, 50.9% Declining
• 44 New 52-Week Highs, 61 New Lows
• 58.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 48.3%
• Vix 13.0 +2.7%
• Total Put/Call .94 +6.8%
• TRIN/Arms 1.13 -15.2%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:  

• Police Warn `Rioters' After University Clashes: Hong Kong Update.

• Alibaba(BABA) Wins Exchange’s Approval for Mega Hong Kong Listing.

• Global Oil Demand to Hit a Plateau Around 2030, IEA Predicts.

• Stocks Retreat as Investors Mull Trade, Hong Kong. Asian stocks fell Wednesday as investors continued to weigh the likelihood of a partial U.S.-China trade deal as well as unrest in Hong Kong. The kiwi jumped after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly kept interest rates unchanged. Hong Kong’s benchmark declined more than 1% as the city faced a third-straight day of heightened tensions. Japanese shares slipped along with those in South Korea, while early gains for Australian shares fizzled. S&P 500 futures dipped after the U.S. equities gauge closed just shy of its all-time high. President Donald Trump didn’t add much insight on U.S.-China trade talks Tuesday: he said a deal could happen soon, but warned of tariff hikes without an agreement. Ten-year Treasury yields edged lower to 1.92%, while the dollar retained an overnight advance. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 1.2% as of 9:30 a.m. local time. Japan’s Topix index fell 0.4%. South Korea’s Kospi index declined 0.8%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slid 0.5%. Futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.2%.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.   

• Fed Extended Pause, Trump China Threat, Japan Sputters: Eco Day.

• Powell Is Key for Traders Keeping One Eye on Impeachment Hearing.

• Charles Schwab Joins Chorus of Billionaires Opposing Wealth Tax.  

• Trump Warns Wall Street His Defeat Would Endanger Market Gains.   

• Nike(NKE) Will End Its Pilot Project Selling Products on Amazon Site.  

• Trump Puts Economic Growth at Center of His 2020 Campaign.

Wall Street Journal:

• Tariffs on China Imports Emerge as Hurdle to Trade Deal.

• Google’s(GOOG) ‘Project Nightingale’ Triggers Federal Probe.

• The Case for the Impeachment Defense.

• The Tax Increases to Come .

• Colin Kaepernick Set to Work Out for NFL Teams.

• Ukrainian Corruption Showdown Sets Stage for Impeachment Inquiry.

• U.S. Drones Appear to Show Turkish- Backed Forces Targeting Civilians.

Fox News:

• House Dem lobs warning to GOP before public hearings even begin.

• Hillary Clinton says 'many, many, many people' want her to join 2020 primary.

MarketWatch.com:    

• Sales winners in the third quarter include Netflix, Autodesk and PayPal.

CNBC:

• Tesla(TSLA) CEO Elon Musk announces plans for fourth factory and design center near Berlin.

• Jeremy Siegel: The S&P 500 will see at least a ’10% pop’ on US-China trade settlement.

• Trump advisor Kudlow teases middle class tax cut as 2020 campaign heats up.

• Apple(AAPL) CEO Tim Cook and President Trump to tour Apple operations in Texas together, sources say.

• Global energy demand means the world will keep burning fossil fuels, International Energy Agency warns.

• US senators push for vote on Hong Kong rights bill as violence rises.

Zero Hedge:

• If Impeachment Fails, Will The Elite Crash The Economy To Prevent Four More Years Of Trump?

• Watch: Gaza Rockets Narrowly Miss Cars Traveling On Israeli Highway.

• Chicago Youth Wreak Havoc With 'Shoplifting Mobs'; Employee's Head Slammed Into Glass Case.

• Journalism School Dean Rips Into "Traumatized" Jeff Sessions Protesters For Harassing Student Journalists.

• "Tax Cut 2.0" Is Back: Trump Exploring Cutting Rate On "Middle Class" To 15%.

• "I Feel Like A Stranger In A Strange Land...".

• What Blackout Period: BofA Just Had Its 6th Busiest Week Ever For Stock Buybacks.

• Trade-Deal Doubts, Peak 'Put-Puke', & Extreme Greed Spark Stock Stumble. 

Business Insider:

• Everything you need to know about Disney+.

• The average price brands pay Instagram influencers for sponsored posts has surged this year.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.25 +.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 37.5 +.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  65.46 -.04%.

• FTSE 100 futures -.52%.

• S&P 500 futures -.27%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.32%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (GOOS)/.43

• (ENR)/.81

• (SSYS)/.11

• (VIPS)/1.14

After the Close:

• (BZH)/.80

• (CSCO)/.81

• (NTAP)/.94

• (TNK)/-.11

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.3% versus unch. in Sept.

• The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in Sept.

• Real Avg. Weekly Earnings YoY.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg Consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +1,171,430 barrels versus a +7,929,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,464,290 barrels versus a -2,828,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,100,000 barrels versus a -622,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +.97% versus a -1.7% decline prior.

2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Statement for Oct. is estimated at -$130.0B versus $82.8B in Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell testifying to Senate, Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Kashkari speaking, Fed's Clarida speaking, UK CPI report, Australia Unemployment report, Japan GDP report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, BofA Merrill Energy Conference, Stephens Investment Conference, Sandler O'Neill Financial Services Conference, ROTH Tech/New Industrials Day and the (WOR) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, China Trade Deal Hopes, Technical Buying, Medical/Homebuilding Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.8 +1.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.53 -.29%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.25 -.55%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 30.15 +.9%

• ISE Sentiment Index 102.0 +4
  

• Total Put/Call .89 -3.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.51 +36.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.69 +.44%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 543.0 +2.34%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.09 -1.97%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 147.0 -3.5 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.55 -.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 197.76 +2.31%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 167.65 -.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 4.0 -.25 basis point

• TED Spread 34.75 -1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -17.0 -.75 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.48 -.51%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.56% +2.0 basis points

• Yield Curve .25 +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 79.03 USD/Metric Tonne +2.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.0 unch.

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -16.40 +6.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -21.50 +.6 basis point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.71 -2.0 basis points
• 21.4% chance of Fed rate cut at Jan. 29th meeting, 34.0% chance of cut at March 18th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -60 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -47 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -23 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long