Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value unch.

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Networking -1.0% 2) Papers -1.0% 3) Telecom -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CDLX, EBIX, CSCO and KHC

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MJ 2) MNST 3) ITCI 4) OSTK 5) CGC

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CTRA 2) I 3) CGC 4) VTGC 5) SBH

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gaming +.6% 2) Defense +.6% 3) Alt Energy +.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• IGT, DTIL, AXNX, PING, DDS, CNST, BZH, DRNA, SAH, SSYS, TDC, HRTX, MTOR, CHNG, CPLG, HALO, INMD, CRWD, RETA, ARVN, SAFM, HT, NTAP, GMRE, CLNC, LOGM and ROKU

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) LPLA 2) WMT 3) RETA 4) NTAP 5) EWW

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DDS 2) NTAP 3) GOOS 4) MGIC 5) QGEN

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -2.7% Below 100-Day Average
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 54.6% of Issues Advancing, 43.2% Declining
• 78 New 52-Week Highs, 53 New Lows
• 57.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.9%
• Vix 13.6 +4.8%
• Total Put/Call .72 -29.4%
• TRIN/Arms 1.58 +24.4%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:       

• Unprecedented Hong Kong Chaos Raises Fears About What’s Next.   

• Australia Employment Unexpectedly Drops in October; Dollar Falls.

• Japan’s Economy Decelerates Sharply Amid Export Slump.

• A Hacker Wants About $5 Million in Ransom From Pemex By End of November. 

• Stocks in Asia Trade Mixed; Treasuries Hold Gains. Stocks in Asia traded mixed Thursday ahead of a slew of Chinese economic data and after a lackluster session on Wall Street. Treasuries held gains. Benchmarks dipped in Tokyo and Hong Kong, where unrest continues to cloud the outlook. Shares edged higher Sydney and Seoul and opened flat in Shanghai. The S&P 500 closed flat below all-time highs, and futures were also marking time Thursday, getting little lift from President Donald Trump saying that U.S.-China trade talks are moving “very rapidly.” Australia’s dollar and bond yields retreated as the jobs market unexpectedly cooled. West Texas oil traded above $57 a barrel. Japan’s Topix index fell 0.3% as of 10:25 a.m. in Tokyo. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.5%. Hang Seng Index dropped 0.5%. The Shanghai Composite added 0.1%. Futures on the S&P 500 Index were little changed. The underlying index rose 0.1% on Wednesday. South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.3%.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• Oil Bounces Back as OPEC Sees Potential for Outside Supply Cuts.

• Billionaire Cooperman Assails Warren Over Campaign Ad.

• Impeachment Hearing Shows Probe’s Limits Despite New Revelation.

• Falling Rents in New York, Boston Hold Back U.S. Core Inflation.  

• Fed's Powell Says Understanding China’s Economy Is ‘Very Hard'.

Wall Street Journal:    

• As Hong Kong Universities Become Battle Zones, Mainland Chinese Students Flee.

• The Best and Worst U.S. Airports of 2019.

• The Banality of Impeachment.

• The Take Down Trump Project.

• Vale Showered Cash on the Mining Town It Buried. Now It’s Pulling Out.

• Fed’s Powell Signals Comfort With Current Interest-Rate Stance.

Fox News:

• Trump vows new Ukraine transcript release in news conference, blasting 'sham' hearing.

MarketWatch.com:      

• Trump says China trade deal moving 'rapidly' amid report of snag  

• Walmart(WMT) earnings preview: Battle with Amazon for grocery delivery dominance heats up  

• Cisco(CSCO) stock falls as slowdown spreads, CEO says ‘the entire quarter was worse than we had expected’  

• AMD(AMD) stock touches highest price in 13 years, leads S&P 500 gains for year.

CNBC:

• Disney+(DIS) already has 10 million subscribers — here’s how that compares with rivals.

• WeWork tells investors it lost $1.25 billion in the third quarter.

• Elizabeth Warren buys CNBC commercial time to blast billionaires in new campaign ad.

• Disney(DIS) shares have more upside, ‘even after today’s phenomenal run,’ Jim Cramer.

• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Cisco, American Outdoor Brands and Ping Identity.

Zero Hedge:

• Chinese Think Tank Becomes First Official Body To Predict 2020 GDP Will Drop Below 6%.

• Alibaba(BABA) To Sell Up To $15 Billion In Stock In Massive Hong Kong Secondary.

• Exposing John Brennan's CIA Trump Task Force.

• Day One Of Impeachment Hearings: Schiff Lies Again, Jim Jordan Goes Ham.

• Fed Will Not Disclose Which Banks Are Receiving Repo Cash For At Least Two Years. 
  

• Berkeley Instructor: "Rural Americans" Are "Bad People Who Have Made Bad Life Decisions".

• Rand Paul Drops The 'C'-Word: Names Whistleblower, Demands Testimony.

• Who Is Showing What? A Complete Guide To All The Streaming TV Original Shows.

• WTI Extends Gains After Surprise Crude Draw.

• Stocks Shrug Off China Trade Talks Tumult, Decouple From Bonds.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.25 +1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 39.5 +2.0 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  65.34 -.06%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.15%.

• S&P 500 futures +.06%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (CGC)/-.36

• (IGT)/.27

• (SINA)/.72

• (VIAB)/.77

• (WMT)/1.09

• (WB)/.73

After the Close:

• (AMAT)/.76

• (DDS)/-.12

• (KLIC)/.12

• (NVDA)/1.57

• (WSM)/1.02

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• PPI Final Demand MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.3% decline in Sept.

• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.3% decline in Sept. 

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 215K versus 211K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1685K versus 1689K prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell testifying to House, Fed's Quarles speaking, Fed's Evans speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Kaplan speaking, Eurozone GDP report, Mexico Central Bank decision, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, Deutsche Bank Gaming/Lodging/Leisure/Restaurants Conference, JPMorgan Luxury Brands Conference, (KVHI) analyst day and the (TK) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, Oil Gain, Technical Buying, Utility/Medical Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.1 +3.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.29 -.24%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.42 +1.78%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 29.45 -1.1%

• ISE Sentiment Index 112.0 +10
  

• Total Put/Call 1.0 +13.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.13 -14.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.92 +.53%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 548.0 +.92%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.03 +3.42%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 154.50 +7.5 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.59 +1.66%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 199.08 +1.1%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 167.74 +.05%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 3.25 -.75 basis point

• TED Spread 34.25 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.0 +1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.36 -.20%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.56% unch.

• Yield Curve .26 +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 79.07 USD/Metric Tonne -.32%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.0-1.0 basis point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -15.90 +.5 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -21.20 +.3 basis point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.66 -5.0 basis points
• 25.2% chance of Fed rate cut at Jan. 29th meeting, 37.2% chance of cut at March 18th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -13 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -24 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long