Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Shipping -1.2% 2) Semis -1.1% 3) Road & Rail -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• FIVE, UAA, AAXN, CURO, YETI, CALM and VRTU

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) APLS 2) UAA 3) TPR 4) MGM 5) YETI

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) VRTU 2) CALM 3) AZO 4) FSLR 5) UMBF

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding +1.2% 2) Energy +.9% 3) Internet +.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CRWD, OI, DT, JELD, BBIO, DDOG, GPS, ABMD, PUMP, WORK, BIG, ROKU, ACAD, EXAS, TVTY,  BBBY, WW, M, GNTX, TLRA, BOOT, CMC, ECC, EOG, TWST, PZZA, ZM, BCEI, FEYE, JWN, MPLX, TLRA, IRWD and WES

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) KTOS 2) NUAN 3) RSX 4) EWW 5) APC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SDC 2) JWN 3) SYNA 4) PLUG 5) GOOG

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +3.7% Above 100-Day Average
• 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
• 44.5% of Issues Advancing, 52.4% Declining
• 75 New 52-Week Highs, 5 New Lows
• 65.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.1%
• Vix 14.6 +4.0%
• Total Put/Call .90 +4.7%
• TRIN/Arms .88 -43.2%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Pompeo Says Any Actions by Trump in Iran Will Be ‘Lawful’.

• Iraq PM Says Withdrawal of Foreign Troops Is Best Way Forward.

• Iran’s Cyber Attack on Billionaire Adelson Provides Lesson on Strategy.   

• Saudi Default Risk Jumps as U.S.-Iran Tensions Flare: Chart.  

• PBOC Pledges Financial Support for Small Firms in 2020.

• Yen Rises, Stock Futures Drop on Mideast Tensions. Stock futures declined and the yen and gold advanced in the wake of escalating Middle East tensions as Asian financial markets return to full strength following New Year holidays. Japan’s currency matched a three-month high in the wake of fallout from the U.S. killing of a top Iranian military commander in Iraq. Gold surged to the highest in more than six years. U.S. and Japanese equity futures slid, while Australian shares opened lower. The S&P 500 Index posted its biggest loss in a month Friday in the wake of the killing, which threatened to spur escalating violence across the Middle East. Nikkei 225 futures fell 0.2% in Singapore. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.9%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.1% earlier. S&P 500 futures fell 0.6%. The S&P 500 Index fell 0.7% Friday.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day   

• Oil Hits $70 as Iran Exits Nuclear Deal, Tensions Intensify.

• Gold Climbs to Highest Level Since 2013 on Iran-U.S. Tension.

• Low Rates Could Get Even Lower, Senior Central Bankers Warn.

• Weinstein on Trial: A #MeToo Reckoning Two Years in the Making.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Bloody Legacy of Qasem Soleimani.

• Boris and Britain After Brexit.

• U.K. Examines if Cyberattack Triggered London Stock Exchange Outage.

• Bets on 2020 Rebound in Global Growth Face First Test.

• Beijing Shakes Up Hong Kong Office, Signaling Tougher Tack on Protests.

• Fed Has Many Tools to Deter Recession, Former Chairman Bernanke Says.

• Iran Lacks Allies in Confronting the U.S. 

• The Democrats and Iran.

• Tech Will Rule These ’20s, Too.

• U.S. Regulators Mull Ordering Extra Training for Boeing 737 MAX Pilots.

• McDonald’s Looks to Move Beyond Party Culture.

• Antibiotic Makers Struggle, Hurting War on Superbugs.

Fox News:

• Iran issues warning to US, politicians chant ‘death to America,’ as Trump puts country on notice.

• US servicemember, contractors dead after terror attack at military base in Kenya.

CNBC:

• Here’s what typically happens to the financial markets after major Middle East crisis events.

• Trump threatens to slap sanctions on Iraq ‘like they’ve never seen before’.

Zero Hedge:       

• Trump Says "US Will Not Leave" Iraq Unless Billions For Air Base Are Repaid.

• Trump Derangement Syndrome Skyrockets Over Soleimani.

• Bernanke Hints At Negative Rates, "Purchases Of Private Securities" To Fight Next Recession.

• Gulf Stocks Plunge On War Threat, Aramco Hits Lowest Since IPO

• Mourners Chant "Death To America!" As Multi-Day Funeral Procession For Soleimani Begins

• Baltimore County Homicides Jump 85% To Record High Amid Spillover In City Murder Crisis.

• AFRICOM Confirms Terrorist Attack On US Base In Kenya.

• China Just Escalated Their Brutal Persecution Of Christians To An Entirely New Level.

• Colin Kaepernick Slams Trump's Racist "Terrorist Attack On Brown People" In Iran, Twitter Users Respond.

• Iranian State TV Announces $80 Million Bounty For President Trump's Head.

• It Would Have Been 'Utterly Irrational' For Trump To Notify Democrats Of Soleimani Strike: Dobbs. 

Business Insider:

• Central bank chiefs in Dallas, Minneapolis, Philadelphia and Cleveland will help determine interest rates in 2020. Here's where they stand ahead of the next Fed meeting.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 56.95 +3.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 34.25 +3.5 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.58 -.06%.

• FTSE 100 futures -.48%.

• S&P 500 futures -.47%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.52%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (CALM)/.09

• (CMC)/.54

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone PMI report and CES 2020 could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into  the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

• Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.

• The Week Ahead by Yahoo. (video)

• Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha.

• Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as global growth optimism, earnings outlooks and oil gains offset rising Mideast tensions, yen strength and profit-taking. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Fear Hits Tehran Over What Might Come Next.  

• Trump Boosts U.S. Forces in Mideast as Iran Vows Retaliation.

• How Trump Planned the Drone Strike With a Tight Circle of Aides.

• U.S. Killing of Soleimani Leaves Trump ‘Totally Unpredictable’.  

• China Names New Hong Kong Liaison Director After Protests. 

• China to Support Troubled Financial Firms, Curb Property Risks.

• Brazil Is Ready to Back Fight Against Terrorism, Ministry Says.

• Former Google Executive Blasts Company on China.  

• Good Riddance to Qassem Soleimani.  

• Predictions for the Start of a New Year.

• Ten Strategists on What U.S.-Iran Escalation Means for Markets.

• Your Weekend Reading: The Gathering Storm.

• Investors Are Falling Back in Love With Apple(AAPL).

Wall Street Journal:

• Thousands March in Iraq for Iranian Commander Killed in U.S. Airstrike.

• Justice Arrives for Soleimani.

• U.S. on Alert for Iranian Retaliation. 

• Capital Journal: More Conflict Is Inevitable; War With Iran Isn’t.

• Investors Bet on Better Times Ahead for China’s Stock Market.

• United Methodist Leaders Poised to Split Over Gay Rights.

• Amazon(AMZN) Has Long Ruled the Cloud. Now It Must Fend Off Rivals.

CNBC:

• ‘The puppet master is dead’: Why Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani’s killing is such a big deal.

• Don’t expect Soleimani’s killing to derail trade talks despite China’s warmer relations with Iran.

• Why the oil market could see the death of Iran’s top military leader as a longer-term catalyst.

• Wall Street analysts expect a big 2020 from these internet stocks including Facebook(FB), and Amazon(AMZN).

• Apple(AAPL) just put itself in position to be the next HBO.

• Don’t expect Soleimani’s killing to derail trade talks despite China’s warmer relations with Iran.

• Iran jitters are overdone, top market bull John Stoltzfus says.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (USO), (DAL), (AMZN), (SAVE), (ALK) and (LYFT).

MarketWatch.com:

• Opinion: Investors are misplacing threats to the U.S. stock market.

Fox News:

• President says US targeted '52 Iranian sites' if Iran retaliates against America after Soleimani killing.

• Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander threatens attacks on ‘vital’ US targets to avenge Soleimani.

• Kaepernick accuses US of targeting minorities after Iran's top general killed.

Zero Hedge:

• Retaliation Begins: Multiple Mortar Attacks On US Presence In Iraq, Hezbollah Warns Security Forces "Stay Away".

• Ruling Class Propaganda: Only Government-Approved Apps Allowed.

• Hong Kong Activates "Serious Response" As Chinese Mystery Illness Prompts Hospital Lockdown.

• Australian Police Say Arsonists & Lightning To Blame For Bushfires, Not Climate-Change.

• "Calm, Cool & Collected": How Trump's Risky Decision To Kill Soleimani Unfolded.

• Round Two: US Drone Airstrikes Kill Six Pro-Iran Militia Commanders.

• Rail Traffic Continues To Plunge Amid Industrial Recession.

• Ghosn's Great Escape Exposes The Mysterious Global Aircraft Charter Industry Ferrying Venezuelan Gold.

• Is Fake News Hard-Wired? Study Finds People Misremember Facts To Fit Their Beliefs.

• Times Of London Names Iranian General To List Of "2020 Rising Stars" Day Before Assassination.

• Mish: Illinoisans Leave State In Record Numbers... And So Are We.

• Negative-Yield Bond Pool Declines As Hopes For Global Recovery Soar.

• How 2019 Changed Migration At The Southern Border.

• Why The Minimum Wage Is So Bad For Young Workers.

• Civil War 2.0 Manufactured By "Media's Mendacious Retailing Of Obvious Falsehoods".

• Amid Flavored-Vaping 'Ban', Smoking Loses Its Cool.

• Trump Says US Not Seeking Iran Regime Change, Or To Start A War.

• Stocks Shrug Off World War 3 Risk, But Bonds, Bullion, & Bitcoin Surge To Start The Year.

Business Insider: 

• The ultrawealthy are hiring former special-ops soldiers as 'nannies' for their kids, paying as much as $200,000 a year.

The Telegraph: 

• Eurozone suffers lost decade with weakest growth of all major developed economies.