Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on Coronavirus Fears, Global Recession Worries, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Financial/Retail Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 49.69 -2.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 121.67 -.06%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.77 +2.24%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 78.21 -.43%

• ISE Sentiment Index 38.0 -49.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .99 -18.2%

• NYSE Arms .71 -19.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 130.14 +5.4%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,423.0 -.54%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 130.29 +4.11%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 199.0 +9.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 151.67 +.74%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 392.91 +7.17%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 156.12 -5.22%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.5 +.5 basis point

• TED Spread 131.0 -8.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 66.5 +2.75 basis points
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  130.0 -1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 57.57 -.83%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% unch.

• Yield Curve .37 -2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 79.56 USD/Metric Tonne -1.23%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -41.3 -10.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -72.40 -26.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.3 +2.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.03 +1.0 basis point
• n/a chance of no change at April 29th meeting, n/a chance of no change at June 10th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -70 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -106 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -103 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer staple sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +6.7% Above 100-Day Average
• 2 Sectors Rising, 9 Sectors Declining
• 21.8% of Issues Advancing, 76.3% Declining
• 2 New 52-Week Highs, 73 New Lows
• 4.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 38.3%
• Vix 49.3 -2.9%
• Total Put/Call .72 -40.5%
• TRIN/Arms .78 -11.4%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:               

• Spain’s Deadly Day Signals No Letup in Europe Virus Lockdown.
• The World Just Hit 1 Million Coronavirus Infections.
• Infections Reach Grim Mark; Hong Kong Bars Closed: Virus Update.
• Fresh Coronavirus Testing in China Finds More Symptomless Cases. 
• U.S. Futures Slip; Crude Oil Pares Thursday Surge. Asian stocks looked set for a mixed session as U.S. futures retreated. Crude oil pared a surge seen Thursday after President Donald Trump said Russia and Saudi Arabia would cut production. Australian shares traded higher with futures indicating gains in Japan and losses in Hong Kong. The S&P 500 closed up 2.3% with energy shares the best performers, while consumer discretionary stocks lagged after jobless claims doubled from last week to 6.6 million. Treasuries retreated Thursday amid a slew of corporate supply. West Texas crude slipped back below $25 a barrel after surging 22% on Thursday -- an advance that pared as officials from both sides watered down expectations. The yen and euro slipped. Futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.5% as of 8:49 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge rose 2.3% on Thursday. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced 0.3%. Hang Seng futures earlier slid 0.7%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 1.2%.     
• Oil Holds Near $25 After Surging on Trump Production Deal Claim.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.
• Record Claims, Fed Balance Sheet Explodes, Broken World: Eco Day.
• Trump’s Push for Huge Deal to Cut Oil Supply Draws Disbelief.
• U.S. Doubles Small-Business Loans’ Rate After Lenders Balk.
• In Just Three Weeks, 10% of Workers in These States Are Jobless.
• Pence Says Hospitals to Be Paid for Uninsured Covid-19 Patients.
• Quorum’s 24 Hospitals Facing Bankruptcy Amid Covid-19 Onslaught.

Wall Street Journal:

• Navy Removes Captain of Virus-Stricken Aircraft Carrier.
• Stimulus Renews Spotlight on Universal Basic Income.
• Jobless Claim Surge Shows Pandemic Extending Its Grip.
• U.S. Expected to Recommend Cloth Face Masks for Americans in Coronavirus Hot Spots.
• Trump Invokes Korean-War Era Law to Get Ventilators Built Amid Short Supply. 
• The Rush for $350 Billion in Small-Business Loans Starts Friday. Banks Have Questions. 

CNBC.com: 

• White House says small business lending program will be running Friday, even as JPMorgan says it’s not ready.
• Cramer’s lightning round: ‘I think it is the time to buy Domino’s’(DPZ).
• The White House is watching these next coronavirus ‘hot spots’ to follow New York and New Jersey.
• Coronavirus live updates: Global cases top 1 million, Americans may face relief check delays.
• Disney to furlough non-union employees at theme parks, waives annual pass fees.
• Tesla soars on delivery numbers -- company delivered 88,400 vehicles in Q1.
• Defense department sees largest overnight spike in coronavirus cases.
• Emerging markets will be ‘cut to their knees’ by pandemic, ex-IMF chief economist says.

Fox News:

• WATCH: Task force tackles America's questions in Fox News-Facebook town hall.
• Trump slams ‘partisan' probes after Pelosi announces virus committee.

Zero Hedge:

• Trump Slams Schumer: "If You Weren't So Busy With Impeachment Hoax, New York Would Have Been Prepared".
• S&P Reaffirms US At AA+, Outlook Stable.
• Fed's Balance Sheet Hits $6 Trillion: Up $1.6 Trillion In 3 Weeks.
• Here Comes The Next Crisis: Up To 30% Of All Mortgages Will Default In "Biggest Wave Of Delinquencies In History".
• "Never Built To Fight A 50-State Pandemic": DHS Medical Emergency Stockpile Nearly Depleted.
• "Pandemic Drones" Can Now Detect Fever and Coughing.
• "50-Cent" Shifts Away From VIX 'Catastrophe Insurance': "Gold Is Now The Right Place To Be For Battles Ahead".
• Uber, Lyft Revenues Drop By Staggering 50% Due To Coronavirus Outbreak.
• CBO Reveals Apocalyptic Forecast: Expects -28% GDP, 10% Unemployment Rate.
• Fitch Downgrades 9 Retailers In One Day, Including Macy's, Nordstrom And J.C. Penney.
• Trump Sparks "Sh*tshow" In Black-Gold As Bullion Demand Soars To 3-Year Highs.

Business Insider:   

• A new type of coronavirus test could turn the tide by revealing who has already recovered. Those immune people could go back to work first.
• New research sheds light on how the coronavirus travels through the air — you probably won't walk through virus 'clouds,' but healthcare workers are at risk.

John Hopkins University:

• Coronavirus Global Cases. (map)

BNO News:

• Tracking Coronavirus: Map, data and timeline.

Google Docs:

• Coronavirus Testing by State.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 148.5 -5.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 58.0 -1.75 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 57.98 -.12%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.11%.

• S&P 500 futures -.81%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.65%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (STZ)/1.66

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Two-Month Payroll Net Revisions for March. 
• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for March is estimated to fall to -100K versus 273K in Feb.
• The Unemployment Rate for March is estimated to rise to 3.8% versus 3.5% in Feb.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for March is estimated to fall to +.2% versus a +.3% gain in Feb.
  

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for March is estimated to fall to 43.0 versus 57.3 in Feb. 
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone Services PMI could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer discretionary and transport shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Less Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Biotech/Energy Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 53.6 -6.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 121.36 -.60%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.73 +2.0%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 79.16 -4.8%

• ISE Sentiment Index 87.0 +12.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.23 +3.4%

• NYSE Arms .85 -27.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 124.44 +.9%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,439.0 +3.84%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 125.14 -.21%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 190.0 -6.75 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 151.0 +3.33%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 371.94 -3.21%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 164.72 -.23%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.0 -1.0 basis point

• TED Spread 139.0 +3.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 63.75 +8.75 basis points
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  131.0 -6.0 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 57.92 -.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% +2.0 basis points

• Yield Curve .39 -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 80.59 USD/Metric Tonne +3.29%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -31.1 -55.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -46.10 -4.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.6 -3.6 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.02 +7.0 basis points
• n/a chance of no change at April 29th meeting, n/a chance of no change at June 10th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +233 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -160 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -90 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer staple/medical/biotech sector longs and index hedges

• Disclosed Trades: None

• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long