Friday, April 03, 2020

Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on Coronavirus Fears, Global Recession Worries, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Financial/Retail Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 49.69 -2.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 121.67 -.06%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.77 +2.24%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 78.21 -.43%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 38.0 -49.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .99 -18.2%
  • NYSE Arms .71 -19.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 130.14 +5.4%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,423.0 -.54%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 130.29 +4.11%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 199.0 +9.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 151.67 +.74%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 392.91 +7.17%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 156.12 -5.22%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 24.5 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 131.0 -8.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 66.5 +2.75 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  130.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 57.57 -.83%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% unch.
  • Yield Curve .37 -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 79.56 USD/Metric Tonne -1.23%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -41.3 -10.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -72.40 -26.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.3 +2.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.03 +1.0 basis point
  • n/a chance of no change at April 29th meeting, n/a chance of no change at June 10th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -70 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -106 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -103 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer staple sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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