Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Virus Data Volatility Complicates End in Europe’s Lockdowns

• Moscow Tightens Lockdown With Digital Permits as Virus Spreads.

• N.Y. Deaths Top 9,000; Italy, France Cases Slowing: Virus Update.

• Fauci Says U.S. Reopening Could Start ‘In Some Ways’ in May.  

• Make-or-Break Moment in Virus Fight Could Happen This Week.

• U.K.’s Johnson Out of Hospital as Parliament Set to Return.  

• Saudi Arabian Stocks Drop as Oil Talks Drag On: Inside EM. 

• U.S. Stock Futures Retreat; Crude Oil Swings. Stocks looked set to for a mixed start to the week as investors mulled a slowdown in new coronavirus cases and readied for the start of earnings season. Oil futures swung after a historic deal to cut output. U.S. equity futures declined in early Asia trading and Japanese contracts retreated. Many markets remained closed for holidays. The euro steadied after France, Germany, Italy and Spain reported a slowdown in new cases. Canada’s dollar opened higher after OPEC+ agreed to cut 9.7 million barrels a day from global crude output -- just below the initial plan of 10 million. The yen ticked higher. S&P 500 futures fell 1.3% at 7:37 a.m. in Tokyo. Nikkei 225 futures fell 1.5%.

• OPEC+ Ministers Meet in Race Against Market to Clinch Deal.

• Oil Traders Squeezed as Glut Fills Storage at Mideast Hub.

• Lee: The U.S.-Saudi-Russia Oil Cease-Fire Won’t Last.  

• Risks Too Numerous to Bear as Traders Tip-Toe Back From Easter.  

• Smithfield Foods Idles Sioux Falls Plant Amid Virus Concerns. Smithfield Foods Inc. will idle its Sioux Falls, South Dakota, pork-processing facility, which accounts for 4% to 5% of U.S. production, the company said in a statement Sunday. The move comes after state officials reported more than 200 cases of Covid-19 for plant employees. Smithfield, owned by China's Hong Kong-listed WH Group, originally planned to shutter the South Dakota facility for three days.

• World’s Biggest Maker of Sneakers Asked to Halt Vietnam Ops.

• Kashkari Says U.S. May Face 18 Months of Rolling Shutdowns.

• Investment Bank Consolidation Likely Amid Virus Fallout: Report.  

• U.S. Recession Model at 100% Confirms Downturn Is Already Here.

Wall Street Journal:

• Lawmakers Seek New Ways to Cover Workers’ Paychecks.

• Looming Earnings Season Offers Next Test for Stock Market.

• Heart Conditions Prove Especially Dangerous for Covid-19 Patients.

• Amid Pandemic, China Offers Tax Breaks for Exports of Wild Animals .

• The Kids Are Playing Basketball Through a Lockdown .

• Coronavirus Creates Uncertainty for Texas Cattle Dealers.

• New York’s Hospital Systems Each Losing Up to $450 Million a Month.

Fox News:

• FDA chief says US near virus apex, but is cautious about moving too fast.

• SEE IT: Thunderbirds honor coronavirus workers in Vegas flyover.

• Tornadoes strike multiple states as South braces for severe weather.

CNBC:

• Fauci expresses ‘cautious optimism’ coronavirus outbreak is slowing, US could start reopening in May.

• WHO envoy says coronavirus ‘will stalk the human race for a long time to come’.

• OPEC and allies finalize record oil production cut after days of discussion.

• How China could use this moment to charge ahead with its geopolitical agenda.

• Disney World will furlough 43,000 union workers during coronavirus shutdown.

Zero Hedge:    

• The Price Of EU Membership: Healthcare Rationing For Elderly In Italy, Spain

• Welcome To India's Hunger Games.

• Russia Sees Over 2,000 New COVID-19 Infections In Biggest Ever Single-Day Spike.

• "The Cut Is Just 4.3MMbpd"- Goldman Throws Up Over OPEC+ Deal, Sees Oil Dropping Back To $20.

• Drone View Of Manhattan Under Lockdown, Now A Ghost Town.

• Oil & Stocks Crash Into Red After Big Opening 'OPEC+ Deal' Gains Evaporate.

• Calls For Central Planning Amid COVID-19 Panic Are Like The Calls For The "War Socialism" Of Old.

• When The World Stopped - Stunning Scenes From A Global Lockdown.

• "Down The Rabbit Hole" - The Eurodollar Market Is The Matrix Behind It All....

• UK Deaths Pass 10K As Millions Of Christians Celebrate A 'Canceled' Easter On Lockdown: Live Update.

• Courier With Coronavirus Samples Crashes On I-195 In Massachusetts.

• China Begins Mass Deletion Of Online Research On Coronavirus Origins.

• Farmers Battered By Food Glut As COVID-19 Shifts How America Eats.

• Watch Dozens Of Ambulances Line Up Outside Moscow Hospital As Russian COVID-19 Cases Soar.

Business Insider:

• 'You think you're free, then it comes back': Doctors and patients explain what the coronavirus 'second-week crash' feels like.

• Coronavirus immunity: 8% of recovered patients in one study didn't develop antibodies at all

• The coronavirus pandemic is pushing more people online and will forever change how Americans shop for groceries, experts say.

• Rampant shipping delays and limited stock amid the coronavirus outbreak reveal why e-commerce hasn't defeated physical stores just yet.

John Hopkins University:

• Coronavirus Global Cases. (map)

BNO News:

• Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline.

Google Docs:

• Coronavirus Testing by State.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 134.50 +2.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 40.25 n/a.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.24 -.02%.

• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -1.2%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.3%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close:

• (WTFC)/1.19

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Trade Balance report could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.