Monday, April 06, 2020

Stocks Soaring into Final Hour on Peak Coronavirus Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Transport Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 44.5 -5.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.13 +.29%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.77 -.39%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 71.7 +.7%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 69.0 +31.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .97 9.4%
  • NYSE Arms .86 +53.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 118.68 -6.1%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,480.0 +3.52%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 118.06 -9.38%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 191.5 -7.5 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 143.70 -3.95%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 363.43 -6.54%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 156.14 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 22.75 -2.75 basis points
  • TED Spread 133.0 +2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 54.5 -12.0 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  122.0 -8.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 57.95 +.75%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve .40 +3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 79.61 USD/Metric Tonne -.33%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -44.3 -3.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -72.70 -.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.9 -.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.03 +1.0 basis point
  • n/a chance of no change at April 29th meeting, n/a chance of no change at June 10th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +314 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +244 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +14 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer staple/industrial/tech/biotech/medical sector long
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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