Tuesday, April 21, 2020

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Global Recession Fears, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Oil Collapse, Tech/Financial Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Above-Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 45.4 +3.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 121.35 +.05%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.73 +3.08%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 81.21 +3.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 52.0 -29.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.13 +22.8%
  • NYSE Arms .98 -18.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 97.73 +6.4%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,323.0 -1.45%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 115.64 +7.3%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 263.25 +24.5 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 122.91 +5.81%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 365.15 +5.6%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 166.10 -.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 20.5 -1.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 103.0 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 38.50 -7.0 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  139.0 +3.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 57.81 -.66%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 40.0 -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 80.50 USD/Metric Tonne -3.49%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -133.10 unch.
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -31.50 +30.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.70 +.5 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread .96 +2.0 basis points
  • n/a chance of no change at April 29th meeting, n/a chance of no change at June 10th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -220 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -186 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -2 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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