Wednesday, April 01, 2020

Stocks Falling Substantially Into Final Hour on Coronavirus Fears, European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Global Reccesion Worries, Financial/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 56.1 +4.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 121.74 -1.3%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.6 +2.7%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 86.5 +10.8%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 75.0 +19.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.20 -.83%
  • NYSE Arms .86 -23.21%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 121.98 +8.56%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,402.0 +1.03%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 125.40 +6.4%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 196.75 -2.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 148.0 +5.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 378.28 +7.21%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 165.10 +.23%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.0 -1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 136.0 -5.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 54.25 +10.75 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  137.0 +10.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 57.85 -1.21%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve .40 -6.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 77.60 USD/Metric Tonne -5.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 24.8 +27.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -41.60 +8.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 0.0 +6.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread .95 +8.0 basis points
  • n/a chance of no change at April 29th meeting, n/a chance of no change at June 10th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -140 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -233 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -147 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer staple sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

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