Stocks Soaring into Final Hour on Peak Coronavirus Hopes, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Transport Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 44.5 -5.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.13 +.29%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.77 -.39%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 71.7 +.7%

• ISE Sentiment Index 69.0 +31.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .97 9.4%

• NYSE Arms .86 +53.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 118.68 -6.1%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,480.0 +3.52%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 118.06 -9.38%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 191.5 -7.5 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 143.70 -3.95%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 363.43 -6.54%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 156.14 +.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 22.75 -2.75 basis points

• TED Spread 133.0 +2.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 54.5 -12.0 basis points
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  122.0 -8.0 basis points

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 57.95 +.75%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% +1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve .40 +3.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 79.61 USD/Metric Tonne -.33%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -44.3 -3.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -72.70 -.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.9 -.6 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.03 +1.0 basis point
• n/a chance of no change at April 29th meeting, n/a chance of no change at June 10th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +314 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +244 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +14 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer staple/industrial/tech/biotech/medical sector long

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +5.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Tobacco +2.6% 2) Foods +2.8% 3) Shipping +2.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SPTN, HESM, SPSC, HXL, RHI, NUS, SMPL and ZM

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) IMMU 2) W 3) PK 4) KBH 5) THC

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LK 2) EL 3) BK 4) SBUX 5) ZM

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +7.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding +15.9% 2) Retail +10.0% 3) Gaming +9.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• IMMU, DDS, W, ERI, LGIH, PVH, SNBR, KSS, VIR, DIN, JWN, CCL, KBH, USFD, ULTA, BILL, DKS, RCL, WSM, DFS, ETSY, CACC, AGYS, MGM, MAR, EAT, LEVI, TTD, FUN, WWD, PLNT, ALLY, RH, TPX, FND, PII, SPG, WYNN, DOCU, HASI, ADS, SQ, AXP, CBRL, CAR, PRAA, HLT, THC, LASR, XPO, PD, REG, HOG, PENN, BA, WD, PLAY, MCS, STWD and H

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ADM 2) IMMU 3) GRUB 4) APC 5) TIP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CODX 2) GEOS 3) CMTL 4) CMP 5) BA

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +61.4% Above 100-Day Average
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 91.4% of Issues Advancing, 8.1% Declining
• 5 New 52-Week Highs, 5 New Lows
• 3.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 37.3%
• Vix 45.1 -3.7%
• Total Put/Call .89 -16.8%
• TRIN/Arms 1.10 +110.7%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Dangerous Disinflationary Shock Slams Reeling World Economy.  

• Spain Daily Coronavirus Deaths Fall for Third Day to 674.   

• Mumbai Races to Keep the Virus From Asia’s Most Crowded Slum.  

• U.K. Confidence Drops Most on Record as Lockdown Bites.

• Saudi Arabia, Russia Push Negotiations for Global Oil Pact.  

• Mideast Markets Mixed With All Eyes on OPEC+ Meeting: Inside EM.

• Singapore Reports Highest Daily Coronavirus Cases.  

• Pope Francis Celebrates Palm Sunday Without Public.    

• U.S. Stock Futures Rise as Virus Deaths Ease: Markets Wrap. U.S. stocks futures advanced after the daily reported death toll in some of the world’s coronavirus epicenters was lower on Sunday. Oil tumbled. The latest fatality figures provided some respite to the onslaught of recent negative virus headlines, though the economic impact will continue to bite for some time. S&P 500 futures opened more than 1% higher, and contracts in Japan also climbed. The pound dipped as U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson was admitted to hospital for tests after suffering from the coronavirus for 10 days. Oil sank as uncertainty remains over a proposed meeting of supplier nations that is planned for April 9. Futures on the S&P 500 rose 1.3% as of 8:02 a.m. in Tokyo. The S&P 500 fell 1.5% on Friday. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 1% in early trading. Hang Seng Index futures fell 0.5% on Friday, when futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 0.9%.   

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• Biggest Arab Economies Hit by Virus With Record Declines in Gulf.  

• Oil Retreats as Meeting Delay Raises Doubts for Price War Truce.

• Oil Negotiators Race for Global Pact With U.S. Role in Balance.

• Biden Suggests DNC Consider Virtual 2020 Nominating Convention.

• Top Fund Manager Is ‘Hoovering Up’ Huge Amounts of Cheap Credit.

• Historic Low Yields Back in Sight After Volatility Vanquished.  

• U.K. Premier in Hospital; Hotspot Deaths Slowing: Virus Update.

• New York Reports First Decline in Daily Coronavirus Deaths.

• India Bans All Exports of Virus Drug Often Touted by Trump.

• Market Bulls From Morgan Stanley to Eaton Vance Find Their Voice.

Wall Street Journal:

• If Companies Aren’t Buying Their Own Stock, Who Is?

• Kept at Home, Many Chinese Fall Behind on Their Debts.

• State Shutdowns Have Taken 29% of U.S. Economy Offline.

• U.S. Braces for Most Challenging Days Ahead for Hard-Hit Cities.

• Oil Investors Grow Desperate for Supply Cuts.

• The Big Question for Sports: When Will Fans Feel Safe?

• In a Steel Town, Coronavirus Fear Has a Father Hoping for Layoff.

• Bet Big on Treatments for Coronavirus.

• World Health Coronavirus Disinformation.

• Texas Gets Double Punch From Virus and Oil Shock. ‘There’s No Avoiding This One.’.

• Aboard the USS Roosevelt, Sailors ‘Were Bleaching Everything’.

• Shortage of Test Components Forces Labs to Beg, Borrow and Improvise.

Fox News:

• Bill Gates, who warned in 2015 of pandemic, tells how virus death toll can be lower than predictions. 

• WATCH LIVE: President, coronavirus task force hold briefing after White House meeting.

CNBC:

• Boeing extends Seattle-area production shutdown until further notice amid coronavirus pandemic.

• Coronavirus live updates: Arkansas gov. calls bidding wars a ‘global jungle,’ Pope celebrates Palm Sunday. 

• Carnival’s struggle to survive the coronavirus as outbreak wipes out the cruise industry .

• 2020′s economic free fall is not another Great Depression, Leuthold Group’s Jim Paulsen says.

Zero Hedge:             

• When Will The Coronavirus Lockdowns Be Lifted? Here Are One Bank's Estimates.

• Crude Crashes Over 10% After OPEC+ Meeting Delays.

• The OPEC+ Meeting Could Send Oil Prices Crashing Below $10.

• "No One Has Ever Seen This Before": With Companies And Analysts Flying Blind, Q1 Earnings Massacres Loom.

• Boris Johnson Admitted To Hospital Due To "Persistent" Coronavirus Symptoms For 10 Days.

• How China's Fake-News-Machine Is Rewriting The History Of COVID-19, Even As The Pandemic Unfolds.

• Shocking Expose Proves Thousands Of COVID-19 Deaths Have Gone Uncounted In The US: Live Updates.

• "We Have No Money": Coronavirus Slams State Taxes.

• Goldman: After The Crash Of 2020, Corporate Earnings Won't Recover Until 2023.

• Putin: Oil Glut Is Really About Saudi Desire To Crush US Shale.

• "No Hope": Canada's Nursing Homes Prepare For Mass Death.

• "I'd Rather Vote For Trump" - Bernie-Backing Joe Rogan Disses Dems For "Making Us All Look Dumb Over Biden".

• How Gullible Politicians Promoted Global Economic Destruction And Threw Us Into The Abyss Of Serfdom.

• This Is What COVID-19 Does To Your Body That Makes It So Deadly.

• Tunisia Unleashes 'Robocop' To Enforce Virus Lockdown.

• 350 More COVID-19 Deaths Reported In NYC As US Braces For 'Seven Days Of Hell': Live Updates.

• Looting Wave Strikes New York City Amid Coronavirus Lockdown.

• All Trails Lead Back To The Wuhan Bio-Lab.

• From 'Nightmare' To 'Surprisingly Seamless' - Small Business Owners Describe COVID-19 Bailout Experiences.

• Goldman Warns Of A "Significant" Adverse Impact On Stocks As 2020 Buybacks Are Cut In Half.

Business Insider:

• Italy, Spain, and France reported declines in daily coronavirus death tolls. Their governments don't plan to lift national lockdowns and social distancing rules anytime soon.

• Sex toys, video games, and dolls: Amazon workers claim the company is still sending out whatever customers order despite pledges to prioritize essential goods.

• A tiger at the Bronx Zoo tested positive for COVID-19 after coming into contact with an asymptomatic caretaker.

• NYC Department of Education is banning Zoom over privacy concerns for students and teachers.

John Hopkins University:

• Coronavirus Global Cases. (map)

BNO News:

• Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline.

Google Docs:

• Coronavirus Testing by State.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.5% to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 149.50 +1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 63.50 +5.5 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.02 -.17%.

• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures +1.24%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.44%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (SMPL)/.17

After the Close:

• None of note

Economic Releases

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Australia Central Bank Decision and the (PLD) business update could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.