Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 4,110.16 +2.28%*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

Indices

• DJIA 33,643.35 +1.47%

• NASDAQ 13,835.39 +2.76%

• Russell 2000 2,235.18 -.90%

• S&P 500 High Beta 71.0 +.21%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 309.5 -2.4%

• Wilshire 5000 42,946.50 +1.97%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,573.64 +3.6%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,519.86 +.79%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 705.74 +1.05%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,433.30 +2.4%
  

• NYSE Technology 4,015.33 +2.6%

• Transports 14,877.21 +.78%

• Utilities 890.85 +1.4%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 70.0 -.2%

• MSCI Emerging Markets 53.40 -.95%

• HFRX Equity Hedge 1,386.64 +1.1%

• HFRX Equity Market Neutral 941.71 +.16%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 464,089 +.58%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 718 +81

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -43.2 -1.1%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 531,310 +1.6%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,327,016 +.23%

• Total Put/Call .73 +1.43%

• OEX Put/Call 1.95 -7.3%

• ISE Sentiment 88.0 -2.0 points

• NYSE Arms 1.43 -24.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,209.0 +451.0 points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 16.8 -3.1%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.72 -3.07%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.54 -.46%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.5 -2.6%

• Smart Money Flow Index 14,159.43 +.33%

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.484 Trillion -.28%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +3.773 Million

• AAII % Bulls 56.9 +24.2%

• AAII % Bears 20.4 -12.1%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 186.83 +.03%

• Crude Oil 59.24 -2.6%

• Reformulated Gasoline 195.27 -3.1%

• Natural Gas 2.56 -3.4%

• Heating Oil 180.54 unch.

• Gold 1,744.90 +.92%
• Silver 25.30 +.95%
  

• Bloomberg Base Metals Index 237.48 +2.5% 

• Copper 404.40 -1.2%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 453.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.5%

• China Iron Ore Spot 165.50 USD/Metric Tonne +3.4%

• Lumber 1,131.0 unch.

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,134.12 +1.55%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 318.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +6.2% +.2 percentage point
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +25.1% -.4 percentage point
  
• Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 12.0% -20.0%
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index +9.52 +17.1%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 150.1 +20.6%

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 183.01 +.32%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.20 +.7 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 150.40 -22.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.20 -.4 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 98.3% chance of no change, 1.7% chance of rate hike on 4/28

• US Dollar Index 92.16 -.75%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,704.7 +.35%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 58,229 -.89%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.88 +.19%

• Yield Curve 149.0 -5.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.65% -7.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.670 Trillion +.27%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 11.38 +8.8%

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 188.35 -.59%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 103.0 +7.0 basis points
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.87 +13.5%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 222.68 -.82%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 44.0 -4.2%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.3 +5.5%

• Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 118.23 +6.0%

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 189.27 +.28%

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32% -5.0 basis points

• TED Spread 18.0 -.75 basis point

• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.0 -.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 unch.

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 51.23 +.99%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 360.0 -2.5%

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 57.81 -.08%
  

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 178.47 -.53%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 67.75 -3.25 basis points
  
• Markit CMBX BBB-6 73.25 unch.

• M1 Money Supply $1.841 Trillion unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,172.20 +6.6%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 723,750 +.35%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.6% -10.0 basis points
  

• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.13% -4.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 693,500 -5.1%

• Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 51.9 +1.9 points

• Weekly Retail Sales +9.3% +70.0 basis points

• Nationwide Gas $2.87/gallon unch.

• Baltic Dry Index 2,088 +2.1%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,858.01 -.74%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 17.5 -12.5%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 174.54 -15.2%

• Rail Freight Carloads 285,748 -1.2%

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +3.4%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -.9%
  

Leading Sectors

• Shipping +3.7%

• Software +3.5%
  

• Internet +3.4%

• Computer Hardware +2.8%

• Restaurants +2.5%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Steel -1.4%
  

• Biotech -2.2%

• Energy -4.3%

• Alt Energy -4.6%

• Oil Service -6.2%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (20)

• LOVE, COMM, PAR, RICE, MRNA, ASO, SLQT, ORGO, CARA, ANF, OAS, HOG, PCT, IBP, HARP, PRIM, DY and FND
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (10)

• BKR, ZGNX, UCTT, RETA, LUNG, CCCC, WISH, PRCH, ITOS and ZNTL
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US Economic Optimism, Sector Rotation, Technical Buying, Consumer Discretionary/Healthcare Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.8 -.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,200.0 +49.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.90 +.25%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.5 -.38%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.1 +.7%

• ISE Sentiment Index 87.0 -31.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .71 unch.

• NYSE Arms 1.45 -19.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.14 -.09%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 453.78 -.67%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.88 -.02%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 103.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.92 +2.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 178.41 +.84%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 189.27 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.0 -.5 basis point

• TED Spread 18.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  67.0 -3.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.25 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.49 -.44%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 148.0 -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 165.50 USD/Metric Tonne -.35%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.20 -.6 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 150.40 -19.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.20 +.3 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 unch.
• 94.4% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 94.4% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +103 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -20 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -29.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 50.9% of Issues Advancing, 45.1% Declining
• 177 New 52-Week Highs, 5 New Lows
• 89.1% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,200.0 +50.0 points
• Vix 17.1 +.9%
• Total Put/Call .71 unch.
• TRIN/Arms 1.03 -42.3%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.25 +2.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 37.75 +1.75 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.78 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,112.0 -38 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.77 -.17%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.28%.

• S&P 500 futures +.26%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.43%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (JKS)/.48
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The PPI Final Demand MoM for March is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.5% gain in Feb. 
• The PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in Feb.
  

10:00 am EST 

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Feb.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Inflation Data report, Eurozone Industrial Production report, Bloomberg April US Economic Survey and the (FDX) April Economic Update could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US Economic Optimism, Lower Long-Term Rates, Dovish Fed Commentary, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.0 -1.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,125.0 +23.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.56 -.18%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.6 -.66%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.2 +.6%

• ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 -10.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .60 -25.0%

• NYSE Arms 1.50 +42.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.30 -.92%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 456.39 +.15%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.87 -1.72%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 100.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.97 +2.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 176.91 -.7%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 189.22 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 13.0 -.5 basis point

• TED Spread 19.0 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  70.25 -1.75 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.25 -.25 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.79 +.36%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 151.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 166.10 USD/Metric Tonne +2.66%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.80 -.9 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 169.40 -1.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.90 -.7 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 -1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -13 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -112 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/biotech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long