Thursday, April 08, 2021

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US Economic Optimism, Lower Long-Term Rates, Dovish Fed Commentary, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.0 -1.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,125.0 +23.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.56 -.18%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.6 -.66%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.2 +.6%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 -10.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .60 -25.0%
  • NYSE Arms 1.50 +42.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.30 -.92%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 456.39 +.15%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.87 -1.72%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 100.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.97 +2.6%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 176.91 -.7%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 189.22 unch.
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.0 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 19.0 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 -.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  70.25 -1.75 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.25 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.79 +.36%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 151.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 166.10 USD/Metric Tonne +2.66%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.80 -.9 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 169.40 -1.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.90 -.7 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -13 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -112 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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