Wednesday, April 07, 2021

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on US Economic Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Dovish Fed Commentary, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.6 -3.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,150.0 +25.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.82 +.06%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.7 -.3%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.1 -.22%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 136.0 +14.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .77 +14.9%
  • NYSE Arms .89 -8.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.95 +.65%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 458.08 -.25%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.90 +1.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 101.0 unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.12 +3.9%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 178.46 +2.6%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 189.22 +.10%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.5 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 19.0 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.5 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.0 +1.0 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.5 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.60 unch.
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 150.0 -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 163.55 USD/Metric Tonne +.36%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.70 -.4 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 170.50 +3.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.60 +.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -35 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -147 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +37 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/energy sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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