Friday, April 30, 2021

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Earnings Disappointments, Less Dovish Fed Commentary, Oil Decline, Tech/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.8 +6.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,108.0 -207.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.92 -.48%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.5 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.8 +9.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 92.0 -17.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .93 +32.9%
  • NYSE Arms 1.32 +43.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.48 +.56%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 438.02 -.17%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.46 -.09%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 111.0 unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.15 -.62%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 167.12 +.66%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.21 -.1%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.75 unch.
  • TED Spread 17.0 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  60.0 -2.75 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.81 -.57%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 148.0 +3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 179.64 USD/Metric Tonne -6.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 42.0 +3.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 164.7 +5.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 50.4 +7.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41 -2.0 basis points
  • 92.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 92.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +51 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -97 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower: On losses in my industrial/energy/tech/medical sector longs sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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