Monday, April 05, 2021

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on US Economic Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Technical Buying, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.3 +5.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,150.0 +8.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.54 -.06%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.9 +.65%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.3 -3.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 120.0 +16.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .69 -1.43%
  • NYSE Arms 1.19 -33.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.15 +.78%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 459.52 -2.97%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.08 +.25%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 96.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.21 -.61%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 176.65 -1.56%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 189.0 +.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.75 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 18.75 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 -1.5 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  69.75 -1.25 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.42 +.33%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 153.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 160.30 USD/Metric Tonne -.27%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.60 +4.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 169.90 -2.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 25.90 +.3 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -1.0 basis point
  • 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +81 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -51 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +6 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/industrial/bioetch sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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