Wednesday, April 14, 2021

Stocks Reversing Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Valuation Worries, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.0 +1.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,252.0 +77.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.87 +.12%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.1 -.79%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.4 +2.7%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 143.0 +2.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .72 +5.9%
  • NYSE Arms .75 -35.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.27 +.22%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 457.26 -.8%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.01 +.03%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 103.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.75 +11.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 173.0 -2.4%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 189.29 -.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 12.0 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 17.25 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  65.25 -.75 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.76 +.30%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.
  • Yield Curve 146.0 -6.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 167.80 USD/Metric Tonne +.27%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.80 -2.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 144.70 -1.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.8 +.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +1.0 basis point
  • 94.4% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 94.4% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +5 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -100 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -17 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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