Thursday, April 15, 2021

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on US Economic Optimism, Lower Long-Term Rates, Less Emerging Market Debt Angst, Healthcare/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  • Sector Performance: Most sectors rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.9 -.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,209.0 -33.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.52 -.29%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.92 -1.3%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.0 -1.8%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 151.0 +23.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .77 -2.5%
  • NYSE Arms 1.81 +147.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.13 -1.91%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 459.32 +.48%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.86 -1.96%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 102.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 88.21 -1.15%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 164.87 -4.91%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 189.06 -.12%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.5 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 17.5 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  65.0 -.25 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.05 +.36%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 147.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 170.50 USD/Metric Tonne +2.91%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.60 +1.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 143.30 -1.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.2 +3.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 -1.0 basis point
  • 94.4% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 94.4% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +122 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +58 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +33 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/biotech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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