Tuesday, April 27, 2021

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Earnings Optimism, Oil Gain, Energy/Retail Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.9 +1.3%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,095.0 -9.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.87 +.58%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.71 -.51%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.4 -.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 99.0 -31.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .65 unch.
  • NYSE Arms 1.04 +22.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.49 +.43%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 446.21 -.97%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.43 +1.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 107.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.87 -.56%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 168.87 +1.02%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 3923 unch.
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 10.75 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 17.75 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 -.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  64.5 -2.25 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.25 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.90 -.02%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 141.0 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 188.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1 .1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.20 +5.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 130.1 -2.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 42.8 +7.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 +3.0 basis points
  • 89.4% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 89.4% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +62 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -43 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +33 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/industrial/energy sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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