Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Profit-Taking, Global Shutdown Worries, Technical Selling, Alt Energy/Airline Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.5 +4.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,104.0 -105.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.71 -.15%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.4 -1.8%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.2 +1.3%

• ISE Sentiment Index 122.0 +23.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .71 -4.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.68 +60.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.43 +.89%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 455.40 -.19%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.61 +1.27%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 103.0 unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.5 +2.1%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 179.36 +.64%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 189.28 +.01%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 11.75 -1.25 basis points

• TED Spread 18.0 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  65.75 -1.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.25 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.46 -.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 149.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 166.80 USD/Metric Tonne +1.15%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 35.40 -1.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 150.10 -.3 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.0 -2.2 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 unch.
• 94.4% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 94.4% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +37 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -45 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/energy sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.7%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -3.4% 2) Gaming -3.0% 3) Airlines -2.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• RICE, TPTX, BXS, TCS, IKNA, INTZ, GLSI and IRTC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SBH 2) ASHR 3) SABR 4) DKS 5) AMGN
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) GOEV 2) JNK 3) GME 4) PLUG 5) VLDR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Foods +.8% 2) Insurance +.6% 3) Telecom +.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• LHDX, EVLO, NUAN, PLBY, MUDS, LMNX, RIOT, GBOX, CVM, IIVI, YETI, FGEN, ZNTL, MCFE, CAL, SI, MARA, LAND, AVTR, RCKT, KTB, NVDA, CADE, CMBM, UBER, CUBI, BCAB, TSLA, DASH, PANW and PVH
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HLT 2) NUAN 3) PHM 4) YELP 5) ATNF

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SIG 2) ZNTL 3) WEX 4) CVS 5) CMG
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -30.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 50.5% of Issues Advancing, 45.9% Declining
• 258 New 52-Week Highs, 17 New Lows
• 89.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 53.9%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,109.0 -97.0 points
• Vix 17.3 +3.9%
• Total Put/Call .70 -5.4%
• TRIN/Arms 1.44 +37.1%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:     

• ‘Mother of All Recoveries’ Ignites Bullish Trades Across Europe.   
• China’s Shadow Hangs Over Private Preparations for Johnson’s G-7.  
• Aussie Dollar Bulls Unbowed Despite Disappointing March.
• India Bans Exports of Covid Drug Remdesivir Amid Virus Surge.    
• Pivotal Week Confronts Emerging Markets at Mercy of U.S. Yields.  
• Asia Stocks Set for Steady Open on Growth Outlook: Markets Wrap.
• Most Mideast Stocks Rise With Earnings in Spotlight: Inside EM.   
• Oil Holds Near $59 as Fed’s Powell Points to Economic Growth.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.
• Michigan Urges Vaccine Surge; U.S. Cases Steady: Virus Update.
• Powell Says Economy Poised for Stronger Growth With Virus a Risk.  
• Inflation Is the Only Signal That the Post-Covid Boom Will Heed.
• Ocasio-Cortez, Allies Move to Court Establishment, Not Fight It.  
• Microsoft in Talks to Buy AI Firm Nuance Communications.

Wall Street Journal:

• Companies Plan New Push on Voting Laws.
• CEO Pay Surged as the Pandemic Upended Economy.
• With Economy Poised for Best Growth Since ’83, Inflation Lurks.
• A State Lockdown Accounting.
• Democrats Tie Infrastructure Package to Unionization Push.
• Some People Can’t Wait to Dress for Work Again.
• Solar-Energy Supply Chain Depends on Region Where China is Accused of Genocide.
• Baseball Says Cuba ‘Sí,’ Georgia ‘No’.
• Targeting the U.S. Senate.
• The Other Reason the Labor Force Is Shrunken: Fear of Covid-19.

Fox News:

• Chris Wallace grills Biden Cabinet secretary on false jobs claim in defense of blowout spending package.
• VICTOR DAVIS HANSON: The new ideas that are changing America.

CNBC:  

• Four ways consumer spending will change once more people are vaccinated.
• U.S. states face steep decline in J&J Covid vaccine amid production problems at Baltimore plant. 
• Wall Street’s top analysts back these stocks as the second quarter kicks off.

Zero Hedge: 

• China's Digital Yuan Comes With An Expiration Date.
• The Number Of Billionaires In America Has Absolutely Exploded During The Pandemic.
• "Far Left Antifa Extremists" Set Fire To Portland ICE Building 
• Excess Liquidity In The Eurozone Has Doubled To €4 Trillion In One Year: What Are The Costs.
• Small Business Closures Soar Back Near Pandemic Peak As "Financial Hopelessness" Builds.
• This Could Be The Hottest Summer Ever... For Freight.
• "Horror On St Vincent" - Only Vaccinated Evacuees Able To Flee Amid Fears Of Next Big Volcanic Eruption.
• 1.3 Million Clubhouse Users Data Leaked Online. 
• Putting Biden's Gun Control Claims To The Truth Test.
• Blinken Warns Of "Consequences" If Russia Acts "Aggressively" In Ukraine.
• 'Mystery' Blackout Incident At Iran Nuclear Site "Not An Accident": Israeli Media.
• Global Billionaires' Wealth Increase By $4 Trillion During The Pandemic.
• The Global Debt Problem.
• Over 1 Million Brits Are Reportedly Suffering From "Long COVID".
• Ukraine, Taiwan... Two-Pronged US Aggression Toward Russia, China Escalates.
• A Self-Loathing Ruling Class Cannot Endure.
• Visualizing The Plunging Purchasing Power Of The US Dollar.
• Conservative Filmmakers Start To Fight Back.
  

NewsMax:     

• Gordon Chang: 'World Not Safe' With Kerry Having 'Diplomatic Passport'.
• Sen. Wicker: Biden Infrastructure Plan Mostly Welfare Programs.
• Blinken Criticizes China, Says 'Need to Get to the Bottom' of COVID-19 Origin.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• After the Most Corrupt Election in History, Apple CEO Tim Cooke Thinks It’s a Good Idea to Have People Vote from Their iPhones.
• The Biden Administration is Offering Federal Employees Paid Leave to Assist Illegal Aliens Entering the US.
• Biden’s Transportation Secretary Buttigieg Admits He Lied About the Number of Jobs Biden’s “Infrastructure” Bill Would Create (VIDEO).
• It Begins: Financial Giant Merrill Lynch Assigns “Environmental, Social and Governance” (ESG) Scores to Rate Customers Just Like the Chinese Communist Party (VIDEO).
• House Democrats Schedule Debate and Vote on Reparations for Black Americans.
• Democrats Urge Biden to Make COVID Vaccines Mandatory for Military after 40% of Healthy Marines Refuse the Vaccine.
• Rules Are for the Little People: Gov. Whitmer’s Top Aide Defies Gov’s Travel Warnings to Hit Florida Beaches and Post Pics Online – Then lashes Out at Breitbart After She’s Caught.
• Heartbreaking Photo Shows ‘Hand of God’ Created by Nurse For Covid Patients Suffering in Isolation.
• Marxist Black Lives Matter Founder Didn’t Just Buy a Million Dollar Compound — She Bought FOUR High End Homes, Complete With Airplane Hangars.

The Epoch Times:

•  Nearly 700 Americans’ Data Exposed in Giant Chinese Surveillance Database.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading

• Asian indices are unch. to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.0 +.75 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 38.0 +.25 basis point.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.47 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,211.0 +4.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.92 +.45%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
• S&P 500 futures -.14%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.26%

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

2:00 pm EST

• The Monthly Budget Deficit for March is estimated to widen to -$660.0B versus -$310.9B in Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German ZEW Index, 10Y T-Note auction, 3Y T-Note auction, Needham Healthcare Conference, (SIG) investor event and the (NVDA) investor day could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Merkel Drafts Law for Nationwide German Lockdown Rule, Curfews.
• European Stocks Post Longest Weekly Winning Streak in 17 Months.  
• Chinese Assets Appeal Eroded by Dollar Strength, U.S. Rates.
• Asia’s Positive Stock Outlook Is Clouded By Chinese Selloff.
• U.S. Cases Hit Two-Week High; India in Crisis: Virus Update.
• Vaccine Requirements Spread in U.S., Sowing Concern on Overreach.
• New York City Rat Complaints Surge as Urban Life Revives.  
• The Debate Over the Next Move in Bonds Has Never Been Fiercer.   
• SEC Finds Some Funds That Say They’re Green Really Aren’t.
• Charting the Global Economy: IMF Upgrades World Growth Forecast.
• Eerie Calm in Stocks Puts Wall Street on High Alert for Next Spark.
• Harvard-Backed TPRV to Unwind Hedge Fund, Return Outside Cash.
• Stock Bulls Bet It All on Earnings Guesses With Troubled Record.  
• Trump Touts Appeal to New Voters as Path for GOP Return to Power.  
• Is ESG a Load of Garbage? Actually, Yes.   
• Watch U.S. Inflation for Hidden Price Momentum: Eco Week Ahead.

Wall Street Journal:

• Biden Commissions the Supreme Court.
• Amazon Vote Deals Blow to Expanding Union Membership.
• As Apple and Facebook Clash Over Ads, Mom-and-Pop Shops Fear They’ll Be the Victims.
• For CEOs, the New Business of Business Is...Politics.
• Loneliness, Anxiety and Loss: the Covid Pandemic’s Terrible Toll on Kids.
• Ten Signs Things Might Be Getting Back to Normal.
• Google’s Secret ‘Project Bernanke’ Revealed in Texas Antitrust Case.
• Medline Industries Explores Sale.
• Is It Safe to Eat at Restaurants Again? Here’s What to Expect.

CNBC:

• Earnings season is about to get underway and that could be a positive catalyst for stocks.
• Biden has options beyond a corporate tax hike to pay for infrastructure, as negotiations begin.
• Iran testing advanced nuclear centrifuge that would allow faster uranium enrichment.
• Covid cases overwhelm Michigan health system, Gov. Whitmer urges residents to stay home.
• The economy is on the cusp of a major boom. Economists believe it could last.
• China slaps Alibaba with $2.8 billion fine in anti-monopoly probe.
• Venture funding soared to record $64 billion in Q1.
• Chip shortage causes more disruptions in auto production, but trader has a hedge play.

IG:

• Weekend Markets Trading Live.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (GS).
• Had bearish commentary on (CCL), (RCL), (CS) and (NCL).

MarketWatch.com:     

• Mortgage rates fall for the first time since February — but don’t necessarily expect a long reprieve.  
• Dividend stocks are out of favor, but here are 19 that Wall Street loves.
• Will you vaccinate your kids against COVID-19 once they’re eligible? Only half of U.S. parents say yes.

Fox News:

• Republicans slam Biden plan to send your money to Central America.
• Liberals ramp up calls for Supreme Court Justice Breyer to retire after he panned court packing in speech.
• Supreme Court rejects Newsom's COVID restrictions on in-home religious gatherings.  
  
• New York Times blasted for calling Biden's SCOTUS commission 'effort to balance the conservative majority'.

Newsmax:  

• As US Pushes Vaccines, J&J Shot Shipments to Drop 84%.
• Rep. Steube: Filibuster a Firewall Against Court Packing.
• GOP Sens: Defense Budget Plan 'Sends Terrible Signal'.
• Biden's 'Population-Based' Vaccine Plan Failing, Critics Say.
  

Zero Hedge:

• Multiple New York Times Staff Previously Worked For CCP-Controlled Media: Report.
• US Farmers Celebrate As Corn Exports Near Records.
• McDonald's To Close Hundreds Of Walmart Locations.
• Government's Global Response To COVID Has Absolutely Decimated The Middle Class.
• Debt-Fueled Spending Won't Create Growth.
• What Could Go Wrong? 5 Ideas.
• US Homes "Snatched Up Right Away" As Market Drained Of Supply.
• Greenwashing The Ugly Truth: Box-Ticking ESG Investment Stupidity Exposed.
• Daily Mail Exposes Hunter Biden Bombshells After 'Tell-All' Book Holds Back.
• Infrastructure Bills Do Not Lead To Recovery, Only Increased Federal Control.
• Morning Traffic Congestion Is Returning To New York.
• Canada To Censor "Hurtful" Comments About Politicians, Implement Internet Kill-Switch.
• BLM Founder Branded "Fraud" After Buying Million-Dollar Home In Mostly-White LA Enclave.
• Target Sells Woke Prayer Book: "Dear God, Please Help Me Hate White People".
• Japan Comes Clean, Admits Dumping Fukushima Radioactive Water In Pacific Ocean Is Now "Unavoidable".
• Melvin Capital Down Another 7% In March, Brings Q1 Loss To 49%.
• Biden's Border Czar Abruptly Quits Despite 'No Crisis'.
• White House Eases US Officials' Ability To Freely Meet With Taiwan Counterparts.
• Stimmy Bonanza: Here Comes Another Blockbuster Retail Sales Print.
• Beijing Halts Enrollment At Jack Ma's Business School As Big-Tech Crackdown Continues.
• Anti-War Activist Visited By Police After Posting Embarrassing AOC Video.
• Stocks Panic-Bid To End 'Inflationary' Week, Dollar Dumps.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Psaki Fails to Say if Joe Biden will Ever Reverse Policies Creating Border Crisis (VIDEO).
• Liberal Boston Hospital to Set Up Preferential Treatment Based on Race, Whites Last – Want to Make This a National Policy.
• BRUTAL: Female Postal Worker Viciously Beaten in Flint, Michigan Over Delayed Stimulus Checks (VIDEO).
• Here We Go: New Hampshire Governor Will Sign Bill For Voting Machine Audit.
• Georgia Secretary of State Raffensperger’s Amicus Brief Attempting to Prevent an Independent Audit in the State’s 2020 Election Results Includes At Least Seven False Accusations.
• HUGE NEWS: Attorney Matthew DePerno Releases Michigan Elections Forensics Report – 66,194 Unregistered Ballots Tallied in JUST 9 COUNTIES.
• Progressive Groups Pretending to be Non-Partisan Launch Intimidation Campaign in Arizona to Stop Proposed Voter ID Law that Will Cut Down on Cheating.
• Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti Loudly Booed at Dodgers Opening Day (VIDEO).
• John Kerry’s Family Takes Private Jet to Idaho as Kerry Goes on International Climate Change Tour.
• Democrats in Arizona Are Petrified – They’re Bringing in Marc Elias’s Perkins Coie to Make Threats and Make the Maricopa County Audit Go Away.
• Five Months Since the Election, Georgia Still Lacks Legally Required Chain of Custody Documentation on 355,000 Votes (Most All Likely for Joe Biden).
• What Is Michigan’s Secretary of State Benson Hiding? Why Is She Not Complying with Subpoenas and Delaying Producing Material Requested?

The Epoch Times:

• Several New York Times Staff Previously Worked For CCP-Controlled Media: Report.
• ‘Hypocrisy’: Lawmakers Denounce MLB’s China Deal Extension Amid Georgia Boycott.
• Taiwan Reports 11 Chinese Aircraft in Defense Zone.
• ‘Trojan Horse’: Kyle Bass Warns China Will Use Digital Yuan to Export Tech Authoritarianism.
• Chinese Leader Xi Jinping Signals Return to the Mao Era.

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).