- Volume Running -21.8% Below 100-Day Average
- 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
- 29.8% of Issues Advancing, 66.4% Declining
- 63 New 52-Week Highs, 18 New Lows
- 77.4% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
- Average 14-Day RSI 46.2%
- Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,800.0 -29.0 points
- Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,704 +.87%
- Vix 17.8 -.4%
- Total Put/Call .81 -4.7%
- TRIN/Arms 1.36 +162.0%
Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets
Thursday, July 22, 2021
Mid-Day Market Internals
NYSE Composite Index:
Wednesday, July 21, 2021
Thursday Watch
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- U.S. Envoy Wendy Sherman to Visit China as Tensions Build.
- China’s Latest Easing Sparks a Shift Through Its Debt Markets.
- U.S.-China Goods Trade Booms as If Virus, Tariffs Never Happened.
- Covid May Have Claimed as Many as 5 Million Lives in India.
- ECB to Move Stimulus Path for New Inflation Goal: Decision Guide.
- Asian Stocks Advance After Earnings-Led U.S. Climb: Markets Wrap.
- Crude Oil Trades Above $70 a Barrel Following Two-Day Rebound.
- Biden Dismisses Inflation Concerns But Not Hiring Difficulties.
- Powell Has Broad Support Among Top Biden Aides for New Fed Term.
- Debt-Limit Steps May Run Out in October, Budget Office Says.
- Lumber Rises as Canada Wildfires Snarl Production, Shipments.
- Single-Family Rents Climbed at 6.6% Pace in May, CoreLogic Says.
Wall Street Journal:
- Car Dealers Can Keep Rolling After Supply Crunch.
- Tough Biden Talk, Little Action.
- Watch: How TikTok’s Algorithm Figures Out Your Deepest Desires.
- FTC Wants to Make It Easier to Fix Devices.
- Starter-Home Shortage Extends Beyond Major Cities
Fox News:
- White House meeting with CDC to discuss making major change to mask guidance as COVID "surges".
- Biden questions whether parents will be honest about their kids being vaccinated.
- Police point to bigger problem as latest shoplifting video emerges, crime soars.
CNBC.com:
- Local officials across U.S. are starting to reimpose Covid mask rules as delta variant takes hold.
- The bond market is torn over the potential for higher inflation and lower growth.
- Jim Cramer predicts S&P 500 ‘is done getting slammed,’ sees upside ahead.
Zero Hedge:
- Democrat Who Featured In Infamous 'Maskless Flight' Pic Calls For "Universal Mask-Wearing".
- Rockets Target Kabul Presidential Palace As US Afghan Draw Down Enters Final Days.
- National Park Service To Send Data Collected From Special Use Permits To White House.
- Saudi Aramco Targeted In $50M Crypto Extortion Scheme After Major Data Breach.
- Paying Your "Fair Share" Of The Warfare-Welfare State.
- Watch: Capitol Defendant's Attorney Says Detainees Are Being Subject To "Torture!" In Contentious CNN Interview.
- Whitmer Kidnapping Defendants Claim Entrapment After 12 FBI Informants Involved In Plot.
- American Life Expectancy Sees Biggest Drop Since WWII, Erasing 20 Years Of Progress.
- The Fallacy Of Climate Financial Risk.
- Senate Republicans Vote To Block Opening Debate On $1.2 Trillion Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal.
- Musk Sparks Major Crypto Spike, Stock Short-Squeeze Continues.
Newsmax:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
- Mike Lindell Offers $5 Million Reward to Any Cyber Expert Who Can Prove His Voter Fraud Data Invalid.
- Biden Homeland Security Announces Travel Restrictions for Americans at Border Due to COVID Variant But Southern Border Will Remain Open to Illegals.
- Sen. Ron Johnson: Data from Israel Shows 84% of New COVID Cases are with Vaccinated Individuals (VIDEO).
- House Democrats Block Bill to Declassify Intel on Origins of COVID-19 Virus in Wuhan Lab.
- VIDEO: US Women’s Soccer Team Took Knee During Anthem Before Getting Spanked by Swedish Team 3-0 in Olympic Opening.
- He’s Culpable. He’s Lying About It. And He Needs to Be Held Accountable” – Sen. Ron Johnson Says It’s Time to Go After Fauci for Funding Gain-of-Function Research, Lying About It Under Oath (VIDEO).
The Epoch Times:
Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):
- Our World in Data: New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
- FT.com: Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
- NYTimes.com: County Trends and Clusters.
- Brown School of Public Health: Covid Severity by State/County(map). US Hospital Capacity.
- CovidActNow: Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
- KFF: US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
- Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits. Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
- Safegraph.com: Commerce Patterns(graphs).
Night Trading
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.5 -.5 basis point.
- China Sovereign CDS 38.25 +.25 basis point.
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.92 +.02%.
- Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,854.0 +24.0 points.
- Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.10 -.04%.
- FTSE 100 futures +.19%.
- S&P 500 futures +.11%.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.16%.
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
- (ABB)/.40
- (ABT)/1.02
- (ALK)/-.45
- (AAL)/-1.72
- (T)/.79
- (BIIB)/4.60
- (BX)/.77
- (CLF)/1.51
- (DHI)/2.81
- (DHR)/2.05
- (DPZ)/2.88
- (DOW)/2.35
- (FITB)/.81
- (FCX)/.75
- (GPC)/1.54
- (NEM)/.77
- (NUE)/4.78
- (POOL)/5.48
- (DGX)/2.85
- (RS)/4.89
- (SGMS)/.08
- (SNA)/3.24
- (LUV)/-.26
- (UNP)/2.54
After the Close:
- (OZK)/.92
- (SAM)/6.91
- (COF)/4.51
- (CSL)/2.22
- (FE)/.56
- (INTC)/1.07
- (RHI)/1.04
- (SNAP)/-.01
- (TWTR)/.07
- (VRSN)/1.37
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June is estimated to rise to .3 versus .29 in May.
- Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 350K versus 360K the prior week.
- Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 3100K versus 3241K prior.
10:00 am EST
- The Leading Index for June is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +1.3% gain in May.
- Existing Home Sales for June is estimated to rise to 5.9M versus 5.8M in May.
11:00 am EST
- Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for July is estimated to fall to 25.0 versus 27.0 in June.
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
- The ECB meeting, Eurozone IFO Guidance, weekly Langer Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (SCHW) business update could also impact global trading today.
- 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Commodity/Financial Sector Strength
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
- Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
- Volume: Below Average
- Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 18.2 -7.9%
- Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,815.0 +244.0 points
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.41 +.56%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.8 +.6%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.2 -5.9%
- ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 -1.0 point
- Total Put/Call .81 +5.2%
- NYSE Arms .45 -2.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.5 -2.8%
- US Energy High-Yield OAS 426.88 -3.4%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.51 -2.6%
- Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 108.0 -2.0 basis points
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 86.30 +.1%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 161.94 -.4%
- China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 38.85 -.01%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 +.5 basis point
- TED Spread 9.0 -.25 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.0 +.5 basis point
- MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 73.25 -.75 basis point
- IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.78 +.16%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .05% +1.0 basis point
- Yield Curve 101.0 +3.0 basis points
- China Iron Ore Spot 202.90 USD/Metric Tonne -5.7%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 12.1 -2.3 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 60.3 -3.9 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 58.5 -1.8 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +4.0 basis points
- 100.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Dec. 15th meeting
US Covid-19:
- 79 infections/100K people(last 7 days) +4/100K people
- 15% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +1.0 percentage point
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +402 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -2 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +21 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
Bear Radar
Style Underperformer:
- Large-Cap Growth +.4%
- 1) Utilities -.5% 2) Medical Equipment -.2% 3) Foods -.2%
- UP, NFLX, HOG, FOUR, HCSG and SNBR
- 1) PETS 2) HOG 3) CNC 4) BOX 5) KO
- 1) SNBR 2) ATHM 3) LDI 4) INTZ 5) DPZ
Bull Radar
Style Outperformer:
- Small-Cap Value +1.9%
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Oil Service +5.4% 2) Alt Energy +4.5% 3) Gaming +3.5%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- SAVA, AHT, AGFY, LE, PLL, AVPT, AMEH, IPG, INMB, CMG, CUK, AFIB,
CCL, NCLH, PBF, STEP, GATO, CNK, BLDR, SOFI, LAD, HA, HWC, ISEE, CRX,
RADI, HAL, SAVE, PTRA, SWI, RCL, XENT, UAL, EOG, ALBO, MRNA, AAL, AN,
RPD, NRIX and LUV
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) OIH 2) CMG 3) APO 4) KSU 5) ISRG
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) CEMI 2) LEXX 3) IPG 4) CMG 5) NIO
Mid-Day Market Internals
NYSE Composite Index:
- Volume Running -9.2% Below 100-Day Average
- 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
- 72.9% of Issues Advancing, 22.9% Declining
- 81 New 52-Week Highs, 11 New Lows
- 75.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
- Average 14-Day RSI 43.7%
- Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,785.0 +213.0 points
- Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,504 -.46%
- Vix 18.7 -5.4%
- Total Put/Call .85 +10.4%
- TRIN/Arms .46 unch.
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